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Job growth in the New York-New Jersey region will continue in 2000 for the eighth straight year, reaching 1.8 percent, or 290,000 new jobs, according to New York Fed economists James Orr and Rae D. Rosen. However, some anticipated moderation in the growth in the national economy in the second half of this year may slow the regions employment growth and prevent it from matching the 1999 rate of 2.3 percent.
The authors note that in 1999, New York Citys 2.5 percent growth rate fueled this performance. Also contributing were an acceleration of job growth in Long Island, ongoing advances in several of the citys northern suburbs, and significant pickups in job growth in upstate and western New York.
Within the region in 2000, Orr and Rosen project that:
New Jersey will see job growth slow to 1.3 percent from 1.6 percent in 1999, owing largely to an acceleration in the decline of manufacturing employment.
Job growth in New York State will slow to 2.0 percent, down from 2.6 percent last year; all sectors will see a moderate slowing in their employment expansion.
Job growth also is expected to slow in New York City, where the growth rate will drop to 2.0 percent from 2.5 percent in 1999; despite the slowing, growth will be above the citys long-run average performance.
Orr and Rosen also examine potential risks to economic activity in New York City. In particular, they observe that a failure of financial market activity to recover from a relatively severe downturn would reverse a large share of the recent job gains enjoyed by the citys securities industry. However, the citys recent broadening of its employment basenotably the growth of a number of sectors not directly tied to the financial industrywould contribute to employment stability in the event of a financial market downturn.
James Orr is a research officer in the Banks domestic research area; Rae D. Rosen is a senior economist and public information officer in the Banks public information area.