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| Banking and Finance |
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| No. 368, April 2009 |
| Subprime Mortgage Pricing: The Impact of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender on the Cost of Borrowing |
| Andrew Haughwout, Christopher Mayer, and Joseph Tracy |
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Some observers have argued that minority borrowers and neighborhoods were targeted for expensive credit in 2004-06, the peak period for subprime lending. To investigate this claim, the authors use a new data set that merges demographic information on subprime borrowers with information on their mortgages. They find no evidence of adverse pricing by race, ethnicity, or gender in either the initial rate or the reset margin. Indeed, minority borrowers appear to pay slightly lower rates, as do borrowers in Zip codes with a larger percentage of black or Hispanic residents or higher unemployment. Mortgage rates are also lower in locations with higher rates of house price appreciation. Although these results suggest some economies of scale in subprime lending, the authors caution that they are unable to measure points and fees at loan origination, and the data do not indicate whether borrowers might have qualified for less expensive conforming mortgages.
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| No. 369, April 2009 |
| The Impact of Tax Law Changes on Bank Dividend Policy, Sell-offs, Organizational Form, and Industry Structure |
| Hamid Mehran and Michael Suher |
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This paper investigates the effect of a 1996 tax law change allowing commercial banks to elect S-corporation status. By the end of 2007, roughly one in three banks had opted for or converted to S status. The authors analyze the effect on bank dividend payouts. They also examine the effect S-corporation status has on a community bank’s likelihood of sell-off and measure a firm’s sensitivity to tax rates based on its choice of organizational form. Mehran and Suher document that dividend payouts increase substantially after a bank’s conversion to S status. Moreover, community banks that convert are significantly less likely to be sold than their C-corporation peers. The study estimates a tax rate elasticity of conversion in the range of 2 to 3 percent for every 1-percentage-point change in relative tax rates. Overall, Subchapter S status is shown to have significant effects on bank conduct and industry structure.
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| No. 370, May 2009 |
| Precautionary Reserves and the Interbank Market |
Adam Ashcraft, James McAndrews, and David Skeie
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Liquidity hoarding by banks and extreme volatility of the fed funds rate have been widely seen as severely disrupting the interbank market and the broader financial system during the 2007-08 financial crisis. Using data on intraday account balances held by banks at the Federal Reserve and Fedwire interbank transactions to estimate all overnight fed funds trades, the authors present empirical evidence on banks’ precautionary hoarding of reserves, their reluctance to lend, and extreme fed funds rate volatility. They develop a model with credit and liquidity frictions in the interbank market consistent with the empirical results. Their theoretical results show that banks rationally hold excess reserves intraday and overnight as a precautionary measure against liquidity shocks. Moreover, the intraday fed funds rate can spike above the discount rate and crash to near zero. Apparent anomalies during the financial crisis may be seen as stark but natural outcomes of the model of the interbank market.
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| No. 371, May 2009 |
| Bank Liquidity, Interbank Markets, and Monetary Policy |
| Xavier Freixas, Antoine Martin, and David Skeie |
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A major lesson of the recent financial crisis is that the ability of banks to withstand liquidity shocks and to provide lending to one another is crucial for financial stability. This paper studies the functioning of the interbank lending market and the optimal policy of a central bank in response to both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. In particular, it considers how the interbank market affects a bank’s choice between holding liquid assets ex ante and acquiring such assets in the market ex post. The authors show that a central bank should use different tools to manage different types of shocks. Specifically, it should respond to idiosyncratic shocks by lowering the interest rate in the interbank market and address aggregate shocks by injecting liquid assets into the banking system. They also show that failure to adopt the optimal policy can lead to financial fragility.
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| No. 372, May 2009 |
| Credit Default Swap Auctions |
| Jean Helwege, Samuel Maurer, Asani Sarkar, and Yuan Wang
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The rapid growth of the credit default swap (CDS) market and the increased number of defaults in recent years have led to major changes in the way CDS contracts are settled when default occurs. Auctions are increasingly the mechanism used to settle these contracts, replacing physical transfers of defaulted bonds between CDS sellers and buyers. Indeed, auctions will now become a standard feature of recent CDS contracts. This paper examines all CDS auctions conducted to date and evaluates their efficacy by comparing the auction outcomes with the underlying bond prices in the secondary market. The auctions appear to have served their purpose, as the authors find no evidence of inefficiency: Participation is high, open interest is low, and auction prices are close to prices observed in the bond market before and after each auction. The authors qualify their conclusions by noting that relatively few auctions have taken place thus far.
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| No. 374, May 2009 |
| The Persistent Effects of a False News Shock |
| Carlos Carvalho, Nicholas Klagge, and Emanuel Moench |
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In September 2008, a six-year-old article about the 2002 bankruptcy of United Airlines’ parent company resurfaced on the Internet and was mistakenly believed to be reporting a new bankruptcy filing by the company. The parent company’s stock price dropped by as much as 76 percent in just a few minutes, before NASDAQ halted trading. After the “news” had been identified as false, the price rebounded, but still ended the day 11.2 percent below the previous close. The authors use this natural experiment and a simple asset-pricing model to study the aftermath of this false news shock. They find that, after three trading sessions, the company’s stock was still trading below the two-standard-deviation confidence band implied by the model and that it returned to within one standard deviation only during the sixth session. On the seventh day after the episode, the stock was trading at exactly the level predicted by the model.
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| No. 376, June 2009 |
| Financial Visibility and the Decision to Go Private |
| Hamid Mehran and Stavros Peristiani |
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Many companies that privatized between 1990 and 2007 were fairly young public firms, often with the same management team making the crucial restructuring decisions both at the time of the initial public offering (IPO) and the buyout. Mehran and Peristiani investigate the determinants of the decision to go private over a firm’s public life cycle. Their evidence reveals that firms with declining growth in analyst coverage, falling institutional ownership, and low stock turnover were more likely to go private and opted to do so sooner. The authors argue that a primary reason behind the decision of IPO firms to abandon their public listing was a failure to attract a critical mass of financial visibility and investor interest. Consistent with earlier literature, they also find strong support for Jensen’s free-cash-flow hypothesis, which argues that these corporate restructurings are a useful tool in capital markets for mitigating agency problems between insiders and outside shareholders.
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| No. 377, June 2009 |
| Globalized Banks: Lending to Emerging Markets in the Crisis |
| Nicola Cetorelli and Linda S. Goldberg |
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Global banks played a significant role in the transmission of the current crisis to emerging-market economies. Flows between global banks and emerging markets include both cross-border lending, which has long been recognized as responding significantly to shocks at home or abroad, and internal capital-market lending, which is the internal flow of funds within a banking organization (such as between the organization’s headquarters and its offices in foreign locations). Adverse liquidity shocks to developed-country banking, such as those that occurred in the United States in 2007 and 2008, have reduced lending in local markets through contractions in cross-border lending to banks and private agents and also through contractions in parent banks’ support of foreign affiliates. Because all these forms of transmission impinge on the lending channel in recipient markets, the ownership structure of emerging-market banks does not by itself provide sufficient basis for identifying the degree of shock transmission from abroad.
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