|
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that
conditions for New York manufacturers continued to improve
in July. The general business conditions index held
near its June level, at 26.5.
The new orders index climbed for a fourth consecutive
month to its highest level in more than a year, while
the shipments index remained near its June level. The
inventories index tumbled sharply into negative territory.
The prices paid index, although elevated, eased modestly,
as the prices received index held steady. Employment
indexes were modestly positive. Future indexes conveyed
significant optimism, with notable improvements in the
outlook for employment and capital spending.
In a series of supplemental questions, manufacturers
were asked how much their sales and employment levels
had changed from the first half of 2006 to the first
half of 2007 and what their expectations were for the
full year. Similar questions had been asked a year ago
(see Special Questions tab). In the current survey, the median sales
increase was 6 percent for both the first half of 2007
and the full year; the latter figure was a bit lower
than in last July’s survey. The median change in employment
was 0 percent for the first half of 2007 but 2 percent
for the full year, the same as in last July’s survey.
Additionally, manufacturers were asked about recent
revisions to production plans for the second half of
2007. Roughly 40 percent reported upward modifications,
while 26 percent had scaled back production plans—a
slightly less positive balance than was reported in
the 2006 survey.
General Business Conditions Index Remains High
After surging last month, the general business conditions
index, at 26.5, remained near its June level, with 41
percent of respondents reporting improving conditions
in July and 14 percent reporting worsening conditions.
The new orders index climbed for a fourth consecutive
month, rising 9 points to 26.5, its highest level in
more than a year. The shipments index, at 29.2, held
near last month’s level, while the unfilled orders index
rose slightly above zero. The delivery time index remained
slightly negative, as the inventories index tumbled
23 points to -19.8.
The prices paid index dipped several points but remained
elevated at 34.6. The prices received index was little
changed at 8.6. Employment indexes were positive: the
number of employees index rose several points to 11.4,
while the average workweek index inched up to 6.2.
Optimism Continues
Future indexes conveyed continued optimism. The future
general business conditions index rose slightly to 48.2,
with more than half of respondents expecting conditions
to improve over the next six months. The future shipments
index climbed to 55.8, its highest level in well over
a year. Pricing pressures are expected to ease somewhat:
the future prices paid index, while elevated, fell several
points to 43.2, while the future prices received index
climbed 11 points to 32.4. Future employment indexes
were positive and higher than in June. The capital expenditures
index recovered much of the ground it lost last month,
rising to 29.6, as the technology spending index rose
to 22.2. |
