Center for Microeconomic Data

Inflation Expectations Increase, Household Income Growth Expectations Touch New High
Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 5.9 percent and 3.1 percent from 5.4 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively. The median five-year-ahead inflation expectations, meanwhile, rose by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4 percent. Household income growth expectations touched a series high of 4.3 percent, up from 3.5 percent in September, while households’ expectations about credit access one year from now worsened. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 2.0 percent, the measure’s lowest reading since July 2020. Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased to its highest reading since April 2020 of 42.9 percent.

Recent additions to the SCE interactive chart below:
  • The newly released five-year-ahead inflation expectations data series is now reflected on the interactive chart and is included as the last tab in the “Chart Data” Excel file provided under the Downloads drop-down menu;
  • data for probabilities of different one- and three-year ahead inflation outcomes; and
  • data for the three-year outlook for home price change expectations by demographics.

For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations Increase Across All Horizons; Unemployment Expectations Deteriorated
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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