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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
The Changing Landscape of Corporate Credit
Firms’ access to credit is crucial in determining their investment, employment, and overall growth decisions. While many believe their ability to borrow is determined by aggregate credit conditions, in reality firms can borrow from a number of markets, and conditions across those markets can vary. The authors investigate how the composition of debt instruments on U. S. firms’ balance sheets has evolved over the last twenty years.
By Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias
Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, But Remain a Concern
Supply chain disruptions became a major headache for businesses in the aftermath of the pandemic and were a key contributor to the surge in inflation. The authors present new measures in supply availability from the New York Fed’s Business Leaders Survey, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. They find that supply availability had generally been improving since early 2023, but improvement has stalled over the past couple of months.
By Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz
Is the Recent Inflationary Spike a Global Phenomenon?
In the aftermath of COVID-19, inflation rose almost simultaneously in most economies around the world. After peaking in mid-2022, inflation went into a decline that was just as universal as its initial rise. The authors explore the interrelation of inflation dynamics across OECD countries, finding that both large movements in the international price of oil and other commodities, as well as domestic policy and demand factors, played an important role in the recent inflationary episode.
By Martin Almuzara, Babur Kocaoglu, and Argia Sbordone
Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed-Out Borrowers
According to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, the nationwide aggregate credit card utilization rate (the share of the aggregate credit limit being used) was about 30 percent in the first quarter of 2024. However, the utilization rates of individuals differ widely. The authors focus on borrowers using 90 percent or more of their credit limit, or “maxed-out borrowers,” and how likely they are to miss credit card payments.
By Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Crystal Wang
Who Is Borrowing and Lending in the Eurodollar and Selected Deposit Markets?
Eurodollars and selected deposits have played a similar role to fed funds as a source of short-term wholesale unsecured funding for banks, but there have been differences in how regulation has treated these dollar deposits. The authors explore how the differences between Eurodollars, selected deposits, and fed funds have narrowed in recent years; FBO branches are now the main borrowers in all these markets, while the set of lenders is considerably larger for Eurodollars and selected deposits.
By Gara Afonso, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Will Riordan 
The Post-Pandemic Shift in Retirement Expectations in the U.S.
One of the most striking features of the labor market recovery following the pandemic recession has been the “Great Resignation,” or the surge in quits from 2021 to mid-2023. The authors highlight a related labor market condition: a persistent change in retirement expectations, with workers reporting much lower expectations of working full-time beyond ages 62 and 67. This decline may affect the labor market for years to come and have important macroeconomic implications.
By Felix Aidala, Gizem Kosar, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
Decorative Image - variety of polaroid portraits of diverse group of people
Equitable Growth Indicators (EGIs)   
A measure of disparities across four economic outcomes—inflation, real and nominal earnings, employment, and real and nominal consumer spending.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Supplemental Survey Report
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions for recent college graduates continued to cool in the first quarter of 2024 but generally remained solid. Though the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the underemployment rate rose to 40.8 percent—in line with pre-pandemic levels but the highest reading in nearly two years.
Recent Publications
Insurance, Weather, and Financial Stability
Global warming will affect risks of bank lending and potentially the stability of the banking sector. The authors introduce a model to study the interaction between insurance and banking, building on the Federal Crop Insurance Act of 1980 -- banks increased lending to the agricultural sector in counties with higher insurance coverage after 1980. They discuss the implications of their results in light of potential changes to insurance availability as a consequence of global warming.
Charles M. Kahn, Ahyan Panjwani, and João A. C. Santos, Staff Report 1107, May 2024
The Financial Consequences of Undiagnosed Memory Disorders
For households with older adults, financial decisions—and the importance of cognitive function to those decisions—are particularly consequential. However, older households are also the most vulnerable to memory disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease. The authors examine the effect of undiagnosed memory disorders on credit outcomes using nationally representative credit reporting data merged with Medicare data. They find that the harmful financial effects of undiagnosed memory disorders exacerbate the financial pressures that these households already face.
Carole Roan Gresenz, Jean M. Mitchell, Belicia Rodriguez, R. Scott Turner, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Staff Report 1106, May 2024
Wage Insurance for Displaced Workers
The authors study the effects of an innovative policy known as wage insurance, which temporarily subsidizes the earnings of displaced workers whose new job pays less than their old one. They find that wage insurance eligibility increases short-run employment probabilities and leads to higher long-run cumulative earnings. The program's effectiveness primarily results from shorter non-employment spells, which enables workers to avoid the negative consequences of duration-dependent wage offers.
Benjamin Hyman, Brian Kovak, and Adam Leive, Staff Report 1105, May 2024
Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time
Economists still have a limited understanding of how bank runs unfold. The authors offer novel insights on modern bank runs using confidential data on wholesale and retail payments from the bank runs of March 2023. Their findings suggest that these runs were driven by large depositors, rather than many small depositors, and that the banks that survived a run did so by borrowing new funds and then raising deposit rates—not by selling liquid securities.
Marco Cipriani, Thomas M. Eisenbach, and Anna Kovner, Staff Report 1104, May 2024
Can Discount Window Stigma Be Cured? An Experimental Investigation
The Federal Reserve has been operating as a lender of last resort through its “Discount Window” (DW) for more than a century. Because it aims to address liquidity problems before they have systemic consequences, the DW is the Fed’s first line of defense against financial crises. However, the DW has been plagued by stigma, based on concerns that it could be interpreted as a sign of financial weakness. The authors study how such stigma can be cured.
Olivier Armantier and Charles Holt, Staff Report 1103, May 2024
Information and Market Power in DeFi Intermediation
The decentralized nature of blockchain markets has given rise to a complex and highly heterogeneous market structure. The authors introduce the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) intermediation chain and provide theoretical and empirical evidence that private information is the key determinant of intermediation rents. They propose a repeated bargaining model that predicts that the block builder’s share of the surplus is proportional to the value of their private information.
Pablo Azar, Adrian Casillas, and Maryam Farboodi, Staff Report 1102, May 2024
Do Mortgage Lenders Respond to Flood Risk?
Using property-level mortgage data, property-level risk data, and country-wide FEMA flood maps, the authors identify the effects of flood risk on mortgage lending. Focusing on properties that face flood risk but are not in a FEMA flood zone, they find that lenders are less willing to originate mortgages and charge higher rates for lower LTV loans for properties that face “un-mapped” flood risk. Their results suggest that lenders are aware of flood risk outside FEMA’s identified flood zones.
Kristian S. Blickle, Evan Perry, and João A. C. Santos, Staff Report 1101, May 2024
The Nonlinear Case Against Leaning Against the Wind
The authors study the benefits and costs of leaning against the wind (LAW)—that is, changing the conduct of monetary policy in response to a build-up of financial vulnerabilities—in a flexible, non-parametric model of the dynamic interactions between monetary policy, financial conditions, and macroeconomic outcomes. They find that downside risk to growth increases in response to a counterfactual tightening of the path of monetary policy, suggesting there is limited evidence to support LAW.
Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, Keshav Dogra, Leonardo Elias, and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney, Staff Report 1100, May 2024
RESEARCH SERIES
Economic Inequality
This ongoing Liberty Street Economics series analyzes disparities in economic and policy outcomes by race, gender, age, region, income, and other factors.
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