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The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
The growing role of nonbank financial institutions, or NBFIs, in U.S. financial markets is a transformational trend with implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
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The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
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John C. Williams |
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President and Chief Executive Officer |
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Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys With Olivier Armantier, Argia M. Sbordone, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 129, Supplement, July 2022, Pages S82-S101 See also>> Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports 1007, February 2022 What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices With Thomas M. Mertens American Economic Review, 111 (8), August 2021. 2473-2505 Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates With Thomas M. Mertens in John H. Cochrane and John B. Taylor (ed.) Strategies for Monetary Policy, Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2020, 103-154 Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates With Thomas M. Mertens American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 109, May 2019. 427-32 Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants With Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach Journal of International Economics 108, May 2017. S59-S75 Real-time estimates Current estimates Replication code A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment With Glenn D. Rudebusch Journal of Macroeconomics 47A, March 2016. 5-18 Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates With Eric T. Swanson American Economic Review 104 (10), October 2014. 3154-3185 Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany With Eric T. Swanson Journal of International Economics 92 (S1), 2014. 2-21 A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy Journal of Macroeconomics 38, 2013. 137-150 Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations With Athanasios Orphanides In The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, ed. by Michael D. Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013. 255-297 Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events? With Hess Chung, Jean-Philippe Laforte, and David Reifschneider Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44, 2012. 47-82 Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy With John B. Taylor In Handbook of Monetary Economics, 3B, ed. by Benjamin Friedman and Michael Woodford, North-Holland, 2011. 829-860 Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy under Parameter Uncertainty With Rochelle M. Edge and Thomas Laubach Journal of Applied Econometrics 25, January 2010, 129-143 Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, Fall 2009, 2010, 1-37 Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy With Athanasios Orphanides In Central Banking, Analysis and Economic Policies: Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty and Learning, 13, ed. by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Carl Walsh, Central Bank of Chile, 2009. Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve With Glenn D. Rudebusch Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27(4), 2009. 492-503 A Black Swan in the Money Market With John B. Taylor American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1(1), January 2009. 58-83 Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy With Athanasios Orphanides Journal of Monetary Economics 55, September 2008. S80-S96 Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections With Glenn D. Rudebusch In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, ed. by John Y. Campbell, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008. 247-284 Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Productivity Growth With Rochelle M. Edge and Thomas Laubach Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), November 2007. 2421-2438 See also>> Updated estimates of trend labor productivity growth Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge With Athanasios Orphanides Journal of Monetary Economics 54, August 2007. 1406-1435 Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge With Athanasios Orphanides In Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, 11, ed. by Frederic Mishkin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile, 2007. 77-123 Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconomic Models With Andrew T. Levin, Alexei Onatski, and Noah Williams In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, ed. by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2006. 229-287 Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge With Athanasios Orphanides Journal of the European Economic Association 4(2-3), April 2006 Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning In Monetary Policy in an Environment of Low Inflation; Proceedings of the Bank of Korea International Conference 2006 Seoul: Bank of Korea, 2006. 199-228 The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations With Athanasios Orphanides Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 29(11), November 2005. 1927-1950 Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument With Glenn D. Rudebusch and Bruce McGough Journal of Monetary Economics 52(5), July 2005. 855-879 Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy With Athanasios Orphanides Review of Economic Dynamics 8(2), May 2005. 498-527 Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach With Simon Gilchrist Review of Economic Dynamics 8(1), January 2005. 1-27 Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change In Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley, ed. by Jon Faust, Athanasios Orphanides, and David Reifschneider, Washington, DC: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 2005 Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy With Athanasios Orphanides In Inflation Targeting, ed. by Benjamin S. Bernanke and Michael Woodford, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004. 201-234 Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest With Thomas Laubach Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4), 2003. 1063-1070 Real-time estimates Current estimates Replication code Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models With Andrew T. Levin Journal of Monetary Economics 50(5), July 2003. 945-975 The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty With Andrew T. Levin and Volker Wieland American Economic Review 93(3), June 2003. 622-645 Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates With Athanasios Orphanides Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2002(2). December 2002, 63-145 Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era With David Reifschneider Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, November 2000. 936-966 Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis With Simon Gilchrist Journal of Political Economy, October 2000. 928-960 Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D With Charles Jones Journal of Economic Growth, March 2000. 65-85 Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty With Andrew T. Levin and Volker Wieland In Monetary Policy Rules, ed. by John B. Taylor, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999 Measuring the Social Return to R&D With Charles Jones Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1998. 1119-1135 FRB San FranciscoThe Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2018-13 May 21, 2018 Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2018-10 April 9, 2018 Expect the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2018-03 February 5, 2018 Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-36 December 18, 2017 The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-32 November 6, 2017 Interest Rates and the “New Normal” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-29 October 10, 2017 Monetary Policy’s Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-22 August 7, 2017 The Global Growth Slump: Causes and Consequences Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-19 July 3, 2017 Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-13 May 8, 2017 Three Questions on R-star Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-05 February 21, 2017 Looking Back, Looking Ahead Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-02 January 23, 2017 Longview: The Economic Outlook Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-24 August 22, 2016 Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-23 August 15, 2016 Economic Outlook: Springtime Is on My Mind Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-16 May 16, 2016 Data Dependence Awakens With Benjamin Pyle Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-12 April 11, 2016 Rules of Engagement Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-06 February 29, 2016 The Right Profile: Economic Drivers and the Outlook Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-05 February 22, 2016 After the First Rate Hike Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-01 January 11, 2016 Dancing Days Are Here Again: The Long Road Back to Maximum Employment Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-36 December 7, 2015 The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-31 October 5, 2015 Measuring Monetary Policy’s Effect on House Prices Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-28 August 31, 2015 The Recovery’s Final Frontier? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-23 July 13, 2015 Macroprudential Policy in a Microprudential World Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-18 June 1, 2015 Looking Forward: The Path for Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-17 May 26, 2015 Monetary Policy and the Independence Dilemma Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-15 May 11, 2015 The Value of Lifelong Learning Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2014 Annual Report April 2015 The View from Here: Outlook and Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-08 March 9, 2015 Navigating toward Normal: The Future for Policy Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-31 October 20, 2014 Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Happy Marriage or Untenable Union? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-17 June 9, 2014 The Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy: The Road Back to Ordinary Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-16 June 2, 2014 The San Francisco Fed and the West: A Century of Reinvention With Sam Zuckerman Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2013 Annual Report April 2014 Housing, Banking, and the Recovery: The Outlook Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-02 January 13, 2014 Rebalancing the Economy: A Tale of Two Countries Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-33 November 12, 2013 Will Unconventional Policy Be the New Normal? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-29 October 7, 2013 Bubbles Tomorrow, Yesterday, but Never Today? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-27 September 23, 2013 The Economic Recovery: Past, Present, and Future Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-18 July 1, 2013 Economic Outlook: Moving in the Right Direction Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-15 May 20, 2013 Cash Is Dead! Long Live Cash! Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2012 Annual Report April 2013 The Economy and Fed Policy: Follow the Demand Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-05 February 25, 2013 Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-02 January 21, 2013 The Federal Reserve’s Unconventional Policies Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-34 November 13, 2012 The Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-30 October 1, 2012 The Outlook and Monetary Policy Challenges Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-22 July 23, 2012 Monetary Policy, Money, and Inflation Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-21 July 9, 2012 The Slow Recovery: It’s Not Just Housing Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-11 April 9, 2012 Opening the Temple Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2011 Annual Report April 2012 The Federal Reserve and the Economic Recovery Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-02 January 17, 2012 Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Past Three Years Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-31 October 3, 2011 Economics Instruction and the Brave New World of Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-17 June 6, 2011 Maintaining Price Stability in a Global Economy Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-14 May 9, 2011 What Is the New Normal Unemployment Rate? With Justin Weidner Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-05 February 14, 2011 Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of the Fed’s Asset Purchases With Hess Chung, Jean-Philippe Laforte, and David Reifschneider Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-03 January 31, 2011 The Shape of Things to Come With Justin Weidner Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2010-15 May 17, 2010 Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning Economic Review 2010 How Big Is the Output Gap? With Justin Weidner Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2009-19 June 12, 2009 The Risk of Deflation Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2009-12 March 27, 2009 Monetary Policy, Transparency, and Credibility: Conference Summary With Richard Dennis Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2007-12 May 25, 2007 Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge With Athanasios Orphanides Economic Review 2007 Inflation Persistence in an Era of Well-Anchored Inflation Expectations Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2006-27 October 13, 2006 Labor Markets and the Macroeconomy: Conference Summary With Richard Dennis Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2006-17 July 21, 2006 Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change Economic Review 2006 Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Conference Summary With Richard Dennis Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2005-12 June 10, 2005 Technology, Productivity, and Public Policy With Mary Daly Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2004-07 March 12, 2004 The Natural Rate of Interest Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2003-32 October 31, 2003 Simple Rules for Monetary Policy Economic Review 2003 Other WorksMeasuring the Natural Rate of Interest ReduxWith Thomas Laubach Business Economics 51(2), April 2016, 57-67 The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest Business Economics 50 (2), April 2015, 57-60 Policy Rules in Practice Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 49, December 2014, 151-153 Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Putting Theory into Practice In Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy Brookings Institution, 2014 Two Cheers for Bagehot In Challenges to Central Banking in the Context of Financial Crisis, ed. by Subir Gokarn, Academic Foundation, 2011. 333-347 Monetary Policy and Housing Booms International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 2011, 345-354 The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade In NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009,ed. by Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth West, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010 367-375 Comment on “Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001” In NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, ed. by Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth West, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010. 48-52 Wrap-up Discussion In Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, ed. by Renee Fry, Callum Jones, and Christopher Kent, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2010. 342-346 Discussion of “Disagreement about Inflation Expectations” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, ed. by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2004. 257-268 Discussion of “A Snapshot on Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence” The Future of Inflation Targeting, ed. by Christopher Kent and Simon Guttmann, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2004. 43-46 The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board With Flint Brayton, Andrew T. Levin, and Ralph Tryon Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series, November 1999 Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective With David Reifschneider and Robert Tetlow Federal Reserve Bulletin, January 1999, 1-19 The Role of Expectations in the FRB/US Macroeconomic Model With Flint Brayton, Eileen Mauskopf, David Reifschneider, and Peter Tinsley Federal Reserve Bulletin, April 1997, 227-245 John Williams' CV 
The views expressed in the papers listed on this page are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
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