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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between December 2 and December 9.
Business activity declined slightly in New York State in December, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-three points to -3.9. New orders held steady while shipments decreased modestly. Delivery times quickened, unfilled orders declined, and supply availability worsened. Inventories expanded. Employment increased modestly and the average workweek edged up. The pace of both input price increases and selling price increases moderated but remained elevated. Capital spending plans increased somewhat. Firms grew increasingly optimistic and expect conditions to improve in the months ahead.
Manufacturing activity edged lower in New York State after increasing over the prior two months, according to the December survey. The general business conditions index dropped twenty-three points to -3.9, turning negative after reaching its highest level in a year last month. New orders held steady, with about a third of firms reporting an increase and about a third reporting a decrease, and shipments were modestly lower, with the index dropping twenty-three points to -5.7. The inventories index came in at 4.0, pointing to a small increase in inventories. The delivery times index fell below zero to -5.9, and the unfilled orders index decreased to -14.9, its lowest level since January 2024, indicating quicker delivery times and fewer unfilled orders. The supply availability index edged up but remained negative at -6.9, suggesting worsening supply availability.
The index for number of employees ticked up to 7.3, its sixth positive reading in seven months, while the average workweek index edged down to 3.5, suggesting a modest increase in employment levels and a small increase in hours worked. Both price indexes remained elevated but declined for a second consecutive month: the prices paid index dropped eleven points to 37.6— its lowest level since January— and the prices received index dropped four points to 19.8.
The index for future business conditions rose seventeen points to 35.7, its highest level since January, suggesting firms have become more optimistic that conditions will improve over the next six months. The indexes for future new orders and shipments both reached their highest levels of the year. Supply availability is expected to be little changed. Firms continue to anticipate elevated price increases. Inventories are expected to continue to expand. The capital expenditures index came in at 6.9, pointing to a small increase in capital spending plans.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
