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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
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Navigating Geoeconomic Risk in the U.S. Stock Market
Geoeconomic risk—the risk that firms incur valuation losses when countries deploy economic, trade, or financial leverage for geopolitical aims—has become a first-order concern for investors. The authors document that domestic U.S. stocks expose investors to substantial geoeconomic risk through firms' global supply-chain relationships, affecting investors' returns and portfolio allocation.
By Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, and Marco Macchiavelli
photo of the Federal Reserve building in Washington D.C. colorized to cyan.
The Role of Repos in Monetary Policy Implementation
After discussing private market participants that are active in the repo market for profit-making motives in the first two posts of this series, the authors look at how central banks are also active repo market participants, but that their reasons often differ from those of private participants. The authors discuss how central banks use repos to manage liquidity in the financial system and implement monetary policy.
By Gara Afonso, Jun-Davinci Choi, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Will Riordan
Illustration of a tag cloud in a circle with a large question mark. Some of the words are Federal Reserve, Dealer, Money Market Fund, Cash, Repo Market, Securities.
Follow the Cash! Microstructure of Repo Markets
The repo market in the U.S. is a mosaic of segments with distinct participants and various settlement and clearing practices. Why do large cash lenders typically settle their trades through a third-party agent? Why does the interdealer market clear through a central counterparty? Why do levered investors favor bilateral trades? The authors follow the cash as it navigates through repo markets to better understand the costs and benefits that shape the existing market structures.
By Gara Afonso, Jun-Davinci Choi, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Will Riordan
Illustration of two banks with a dollar bill and treasury notes going back and forth in between.
Who’s Borrowing and Lending in Repo Markets?
Repo markets play a vital role in the U.S. financial system. The authors examine who participates in these markets, what trade-offs influence how different repo segments are structured, and why repos matter for monetary policy. They introduce repo transactions, focusing on the major private-sector participants and why they engage in these markets.
By Gara Afonso, Jun-Davinci Choi, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Will Riordan
Floor of the stock exchange with a large screen in front that says closing bell.
Treasury Trading at the Close
In a previous blog post, the authors showed that trading in U.S. Treasury securities is becoming increasingly concentrated on the last trading day of each month. Here, they show that trading is also becoming more concentrated around the designated pricing, or “strike,” times for fixed-income indexes. The concentration is especially pronounced on month-end trading days.
By Henry Dyer, Michael Fleming, and Or Shachar
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— September 2026
The authors present an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. They describe their forecast and its change since June 2026.
By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, Michael Pham, and Elizabeth Wright
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Labor Market Tightness Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
AI generated, people walking in office building.
Labor Market Tightness Index
The HPW Labor Market Tightness Index is an indicator of labor market tightness for summarizing current wage pressures and predicting wage inflation.
Photo: a four-panel picture of people cleaning up after natural disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters provides county-level estimates of the economic and human impact of extreme weather events in the United States.
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates through the second quarter of 2026. The unemployment rate stayed elevated at about 5.6 percent, and the underemployment rate edged up to 42 percent.
Recent Publications
From Moore’s Law to Eroom’s Law: Power Constraints and the Productivity Slowdown
Economic growth depends on combining existing inputs into new inventions, but these combinations are not always physically feasible. The author develops a growth model and establishes conditions for a unique balanced growth path, where electronic miniaturization and power efficiency grow at the same rate. When power-efficiency research becomes harder, both total research employment and productivity growth fall. With gradual adjustment of research employment, he constructs a local equilibrium transition in which more researchers temporarily coexist with slower productivity growth.
Pablo D. Azar, Staff Report 1209, October 2026
Consumption, Savings, and Earnings Responses to Financial Windfalls
How do individuals’ economic decisions change when their financial resources increase? The authors estimate the causal effects of a financial windfall on consumption, savings, and wage earnings using linked administrative data on a large sample of Canadian lottery winners. They estimate how lottery winnings affect consumption, measured through credit card spending, savings through financial asset accumulation and debt repayment, and wage earnings from tax records. They then examine how these responses vary across the income distribution.
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Philippe d’Astous, Kory Kroft, Sheisha Kulkarni, Vyacheslav Mikhed, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Sahil Raina, and Barry Scholnick, Staff Report 1208, October 2026
Fleeting Forbearance in a World of Persistent Financial Distress
Relative to the persistent delinquency typically observed in consumer credit, mortgage forbearance during the COVID-19 pandemic was surprisingly short-lived. The authors use a structural model estimated on credit panel microdata, combined with survey data, to identify two forces that have received little attention in the literature: selection and expectations of income loss. They find that the power of forbearance, a frequent macroeconomic policy, hinges on borrower selection, shock realizations, and revisions to expectations following those realizations.
José Mustre-del-Río, Juan M. Sánchez, and Kartik Athreya. Staff Report 1207, October 2026
Cyclical Earnings, Career and Employment Transitions
Career changes across occupations are central to the cyclical behavior of workers’ earnings growth. The authors study the joint behavior of earnings risk and career changes over the business cycle. They demonstrate that career changes, which they observe as occupational mobility, are the main driver behind the cyclical patterns of the annual earnings growth distribution, and that employer mobility on its own does not contribute as much as occupational mobility in shaping cyclical earnings growth.
Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Ludo Visschers, and David Wiczer, Staff Report 1206, September 2026
How Do Banks Build Equity Capital?
Understanding how bank equity capital evolves over time is critical to understanding the risks facing individual banks, the banking system, and the broader economy. The authors analyze the components of equity capital to document how U.S. bank holding companies built and depleted equity capital from 1990 to 2024. By bringing together earnings, stock issuance, and shareholder payouts within a unified framework, they quantify the contributions of these components and characterize the patterns that shape equity capital over time.
Lily Gordon and Beverly Hirtle, Economic Policy Review 32, no. 1, September
When Higher Stakes Weaken Security
Settlement systems are designed so that security rises with the stakes: when a bank clears a large payment, the legal framework behind it does not weaken. Proof-of-Work (PoW) blockchains attempt to replace this legal infrastructure with a purely incentive-based mechanism, substituting the authority of clearinghouses and courts with costly computation. The authors provide the first causal evidence that, in a major PoW blockchain, security can degrade with the value at stake.
Pablo D. Azar and Maryam Farboodi, Staff Report 1205, September 2026
How Do Market Expectations React to the FOMC Dot Plot?
The public pays close attention to Federal Reserve communications about future monetary policy, but how do these communications shape the public’s expectations for policy rates? These expectations have effects on longer-term interest rates and therefore on the macroeconomy. The authors explore how market expectations adjust to the information provided in the “dot plot” of the Summary of Economic Projections, which contains the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) assessment of the appropriate future path of the federal funds rate.
Stefania D’Amico, Thomas B. King, and Francisco Torralba, Staff Report 1204, September 2026
The Implied Equity Term Structure
An active body of literature studies and measures the expected returns on equity dividend assets with different maturities. The authors propose a new methodology that tackles the inherent empirical challenges of measuring equity risk premia across different maturities. Instead of using realized returns of dividend assets, they generalize the implied cost of capital approach and imply the term structure of ex-ante expected returns from the cross-section of observed stock prices and projected firm-level cash flows.
Lieven Baele, Joost Driessen, and Tomas Jankauskas, Staff Report 1203, September 2026


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