Museum & Visits Regional Economy Data & Statistics Careers Blog Press Center

Center for Microeconomic Data

SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS

January Survey: Earnings, Job Loss, and Job Finding Expectations Improve Modestly; Inflation Expectations Lower at Short-Term, Unchanged at Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons

Median inflation expectations in January declined by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) to 3.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and remained steady at 3.0 percent at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased in January by 0.2 ppt to 2.7 percent. The increase was driven by those with a household income under $50,000.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.4 ppt to 14.8 percent, remaining slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 14.6 percent. The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost increased by 2.5 ppts to 45.6 percent, remaining below the trailing 12-month average of 48.6 percent.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated, with a smaller share expecting to be better off a year from now and a larger share expecting to be worse off.

For more details:
Press Release: Labor Market Expectations Improve Slightly; Short-Term Inflation Expectations Decline

Downloads

SURVEY MODULES

SCE Credit Access
Survey

SCE Household
Spending Survey

SCE Housing
Survey

SCE Labor Market
Survey

SCE Public Policy
Survey

Fielding the Survey

The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.

By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Statement. You can learn more about how we use cookies by reviewing our Privacy Statement.