Working Papers and Research in Progress

The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
With Robert Rich and Joseph Song
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 588, December 2012

A New Look at Second Liens
With Donghoon Lee and Christopher Mayer
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 569, August 2012

Payment Changes and Default Risk: The Impact of Refinancing on Expected Credit Losses
With Joshua Wright
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 562, June 2012

The Supply Side of the Housing Boom and Bust of the 2000s
With Andrew Haughwout, Richard W. Peach, and John Sporn
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 556, March  2012

Housing Busts and Household Mobility: An Update
With Fernando Ferreira and Joseph Gyourko
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 526, November 2011

Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of U.S. Labor Contracts from 1970 to 1995
With Robert Rich
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 521, October 2011

Real Estate Investors, the Leverage Cycle, and the Housing Market Crisis
With Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 514, September 2011

Reassessing FHA Risk
With Diego Aragon, Andrew Caplin, Sumit Chopra, John V. Leahy, Yaan LeCun and Marco Scoffier
NBER Working Paper No. 15802, March 2010

Second Chances: Subprime Mortgage Modification and Re-DeFault
With Andrew Haughwout and Ebiere Okah
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 417, December 2009

ESOP Fables; The Impact of Employee Stock Ownership Plans on Labor Disputes
With Peter Cramton and Hamid Mehran
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports,No. 347, September 2008

The Relationship Between Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts
With Robert Rich
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff ReportNo. 253, July 2006

Unemployment Insurance and the Diminished Importance of Temporary Layoffs Over the Business Cycle 
With Margaret McConnell
May 2005
39 pages / 316 kb

Measuring Uncertainty: Predictive Accuracy as a Proxy for Predictive Confidence
With Robert Rich
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 161, February 2003

Exchange Rates and Wages
With Linda Goldberg
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 116, January 2001

Earnings Variability in the United States: An Examination Using Matched-CPS Data  
With Stephen Cameron
Working Paper, Columbia University, April 1998
41 pages / 358 kb

The Transition to Homeownership: The Importance of Early Career Concerns  
With Stephen Cameron
Working paper, Columbia University, April 1997

Profitability, Union Spillover Effects, and the Efficiency of Union Contracting
With Stephen Bronars and Donald Deere
Working Paper, Yale University, January 1991

Unions and Market Power
With John Abowd
Working Paper, Yale University, June 1989

Comparisons Between Public and Private Sector Union Wage Differentials: Does the Legal Environment Matter?
NBER Working Paper No. 2755, November 1988

Testing Strategic Bargaining Models Using Stock Market Data
NBER Working Paper No. 2754, November 1988

Seniority Rules and the Gains from Union Organization
NBER Working Paper No. 2039, October 1986

Joseph Tracy's CV

The views expressed in the papers listed on this page are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.