Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) for the New York-New Jersey Region
1995 to present

Our Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) for December show a contraction in economic activity in New York State, New York City and New Jersey. While there had been preliminary indications of some leveling off of activity in the region during the summer, subsequent data releases point to continued declines.

Background
A coincident index is a single summary statistic that tracks the current state of the economy. The index is computed from a number of data series that move systematically with overall economic conditions. A rise in the index indicates an expansion of economic activity and a decline in the index indicates a contraction in economic activity. Each of the regional indexes is computed using data on employment, real earnings, the unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing. The estimated New York State, New York City, and New Jersey Coincident Indexes are then calibrated to match the mean and standard deviation of their respective real earnings series.

For more information, see:

Two New Indexes Offer a Broad View of Economic Activity in the New York-New Jersey Region
By James Orr, Robert Rich and Rae Rosen, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 5 (14), Oct 1999, 6 pages / 322 kb

Is the Worst Over? Economic Indexes and the Course of the Recession in New York and New Jersey
By Jason Bram, James Orr, Robert Rich, Rae Rosen, and Joseph Song, Current Issues in Economics and Finance Second District Highlights (15) 5, September 2009, 7 pages / 371 kb

For further questions, contact James Orr, (212) 720-5491, or Rae Rosen, (212) 720-1935.

Other Regional Economic Activity Indexes
Economic Activity Indexes for PA, NJ, and DE
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank

Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators for Texas
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank