Survey Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded in New York State at a moderate pace. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 17.1. The new orders index inched up to 8.3, and the shipments index shot up eighteen points to 24.1. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received were positive but lower in May, indicating that the pace of price increases slowed. Employment index readings remained relatively healthy, suggesting that employment levels and hours worked continued to expand. Future indexes were noticeably lower than last month, indicating a positive but somewhat less optimistic view of the six-month outlook.

In a series of supplementary questions, firms were asked about past and expected changes in both their input prices (prices paid) and selling prices (prices received). Respondents estimated that the prices they paid increased 3.6 percent, on average, over the past twelve months—down sharply from the 8.1 percent rise reported in last May’s survey. Looking ahead to the next twelve months, respondents on average predicted a price rise of 3.5 percent. Firms reported smaller increases in prices received: the average respondent cited a 1.7 percent increase in selling prices over the past year (down from 1.9 percent in the May 2011 survey) and an expected increase of 2.1 percent for the year ahead.

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Historical Reports ››

Charts of diffusion indexes (past 12 months)

Historical Tables

Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Not seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Data definitions 2 pages / 10 kb

Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.

For demonstration only:
Sample survey 1 page / 44 kb

Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.

The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.

Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision to reflect new seasonal factors.

Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.

The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.

Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:

X = log(p/(1-p))

The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:

adjX = X - seasonal factor

The result is then transformed using the following equation:

SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX)) /survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html

Seasonal factors are available here

• Data & Charts

Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org

Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651