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Economists Richard Deitz and Charles Steindel examine the correlation between data garnered from the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey and developments in the national economy. The Empire State Survey, launched in July 2001, is designed to gauge manufacturing conditions in New York State, and is sometimes viewed as providing an early read on U.S. economic conditions.
In this study, the authors seek to determine the predictive powers of the relatively new Empire State Survey. They find that the Empire State Survey provides information ahead of U.S. production and employment trends. In fact, the predictive power of the survey appears to be at least equal to that of two well established manufacturing surveys.
Richard Deitz is a senior economist and Charles Steindel is a senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.