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Current Issues in Economics and Finance Second District Highlights
The Predictive Abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey
January 2005Volume 11, Number 1
JEL classification: E23, E27, R11
Authors: Richard Deitz and Charles Steindel
Business surveys often give early signals of the direction and magnitude of economic activity. One release, the relatively new Empire State Manufacturing Survey, is demonstrating an ability to provide information ahead of U.S. production and employment trends. In fact, the predictive power of this survey appears to be at least equal to that of two established manufacturing surveys.