Economic Research

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Forecasting with the FRBNY DSGE Model
The first post in this week’s five-part series. The bloggers discuss what DSGE models are, explain the usefulness of these models as a forecasting tool, and preview the forthcoming pieces in the series.
By Marco Del Negro, Bianca De Paoli, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, Argia Sbordone, and Andrea Tambalotti
What Explains the June Spike in Treasury Settlement Fails?
The bloggers observe that sequential fails of several benchmark securities accounted for the lion’s share of Treasury settlement fails in June 2014, but that fails in seasoned securities—which have been trending upward for some time—were also elevated.
By Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, Antoine Martin, and Michael McMorrow
Measuring Settlement Fails
In June 2014, settlement fails in U.S. Treasury securities spiked to their highest level since the implementation of the fails charge in May 2009. The bloggers review what settlement fails are, why they are of interest, and how they can be measured.
By Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, Antoine Martin, and Michael McMorrow
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International Banking Research Network
This New York Fed-hosted microsite describes an initiative of central bank researchers who are engaged in a coordinated study of global banks and their activities internationally.
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The Center for Microeconomic Data
This new research hub centralizes the wide-ranging microeconomic data, research, and analysis produced by the New York Fed.
Higher Education Map
For-Profits in the Higher Education Landscape
Interactive maps and charts shed light on the unprecedented growth, market share, student loans, tuition pricing, federal grants, and more for for-profit higher education institutions.
Recent Articles
How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment
The authors describe using a randomized controlled trial involving a sample of Indian farmers to study how an innovative rainfall insurance product affects production decisions.
By Shawn Cole, Xavier Gine, and James Vickery, Staff Reports 692, September 2014
What Predicts U.S. Recessions?
The authors reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading indicator variables.
By Emanuel Moench and Weiling Liu, Staff Reports 691, September 2014
Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability
The authors provide a review of the transmission channels of monetary policy, focusing not just on financial conditions, but also on financial stability consequences by way of financial vulnerabilities.
By Tobias Adrian and Nellie Liang, Staff Reports 690, September 2014
Job Search Behavior over the Business Cycle
The authors examine how nonemployed workers’ job search effort varies over the business cycle and consider its implications for individual and aggregate labor market outcomes. To this end, they construct a measure of search effort by combining information from the American Time Use Survey and the Current Population Survey.
By Toshihiko Mukoyama, Christina Patterson, and Ayşegül Şahin, Staff Reports 689, August 2014
A Leverage-Based Measure of Financial Instability
The authors develop a measure of financial instability designed to give regulators and policymakers advance warning of financial crises and apply it to an investigation of the 1998 collapse of Long-Term Capital Management.
By Alexander Tepper and Karol Jan Borowiecki, Staff Reports 688, August 2014
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