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A reduced dependency on foreign funds can be viewed as a favorable development for the U.S. economy to the extent that it reflects an improvement in the fiscal balance. However, it also reflects the lackluster recovery in residential investment, which is one reason the U.S. economy has yet to get back to its full operating potential.
The authors examine how nonemployed workers’ job search effort varies over the business cycle and consider its implications for individual and aggregate labor market outcomes. To this end, they construct a measure of search effort by combining information from the American Time Use Survey and the Current Population Survey.
By Toshihiko Mukoyama, Christina Patterson, and Ayşegül Şahin, Staff Reports 689, August 2014
The authors develop a measure of financial instability designed to give regulators and policymakers advance warning of financial crises and apply it to an investigation of the 1998 collapse of Long-Term Capital Management.
By Alexander Tepper and Karol Jan Borowiecki, Staff Reports 688, August 2014
The authors examine the behavior of the Beveridge curve—the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate—since 1950. They find that the curve’s outward shift in the present recovery was consistent with its behavior in past recoveries and that such shifts do not predict the unemployment rate that will obtain at the end of the expansion.
By Peter A. Diamond and Ayşegül Şahin, Staff Reports 687, August 2014
This study finds that if individuals were provided with accurate information about college costs and the returns to a college education, their estimates of the likelihood of their (pre-college age) child attending college would increase significantly.
By Zachary Bleemer and Basit Zafar, Staff Reports 685, August 2014
Garbade addresses three questions: Why did Congress 1) prohibit direct purchases in 1935 (after they had been utilized without incident for eighteen years), 2) provide a limited exemption in 1942 (instead of simply removing the prohibition), and 3) allow the exemption to expire in 1981?
By Kenneth D. Garbade, Staff Reports 684, August 2014
Delavande and Zafar investigate the determinants of students’ university choice, with a focus on expected monetary returns, non-pecuniary factors enjoyed at school, and financial constraints, in the Pakistani context.
By Adeline Delavande and Basit Zafar, Staff Reports 683, August 2014
Educational assortative mating is a pattern in which individuals choose to mate with one another based on similar educational attainment. Using data from the United States and Norway over the period 1980-2007, the authors investigate this pattern, its evolution over time, and its impact on household income inequality.
By Lasse Eika, Magne Mogstad, and Basit Zafar, Staff Reports 682, August 2014
Although a slowdown in Puerto Rico’s birthrate has contributed to the island’s sharp population decline, a surge in out-migration has been a more important factor. The authors consider steps that might counter the trend, including efforts to shore up the economy and expand job opportunities for younger workers.
By Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, volume 20, number 4, August 2014