Economic Research

From the Vault: Supplementing a Monetary Policy Syllabus
Economics educators face a challenge in keeping up with new developments in monetary policy since the financial crisis. Take a tour through our blog archive for pieces that help update a course syllabus.
By Anna Snider
Just Released: An Update on Regional Economic Conditions Provided at Our Economic Press Briefing
Today’s briefing showed that many parts of the region, such as New York City, Buffalo, and Albany, have bounced back quite well from the Great Recession and are growing at a solid clip. However, the picture is a bit different in other parts of the region: in Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, jobs are still not back to their pre-recession peak; and in Binghamton, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, there are no meaningful signs of recovery.
By Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, James Orr, and Richard Deitz
Mind the Gap: Assessing Labor Market Slack
The bloggers develop an updated measure of labor market slack based on the behavior of labor compensation. According to this measure, roughly 90 percent of the labor gap that opened up following the recession has been closed.
By Joseph Tracy, Robert Rich, Samuel Kapon, and Ellen Fu
The Evolution of Workups in the U.S. Treasury Securities Market
The bloggers document the continued important role played by the workup in the U.S. Treasury securities market, show some ways in which trading behavior in the workup has evolved, and explain some of the observed changes.
By Michael Fleming, Ernst Schaumburg, and Ron Yang
High-Frequency Cross-Market Trading in U.S. Treasury Markets
The bloggers examine the pattern of trading activity in U.S. Treasury futures and benchmark securities and document the substantial increase in cross-market trading in recent years, highlighting the impact of technological advancements that allow nearly instantaneous trading across assets and trading platforms.
By Dobrislav Dobrev and Ernst Schaumburg
Liquidity during Flash Events
The bloggers consider a few of the important similarities and differences among three major flash events in the U.S. equities, euro–dollar foreign exchange, and U.S. Treasury markets that occurred between May 2010 and March 2015.
By Ernst Schaumburg and Ron Yang
Has U.S. Treasury Market Liquidity Deteriorated?
Concerns that regulatory and structural changes have harmed dealers’ market-making abilities as well as events such as the taper tantrum and the flash rally have raised questions about market liquidity. But is there really evidence of a sustained reduction in liquidity? The authors address this question with respect to the U.S. Treasury market.
By Tobias Adrian, Michael Fleming, Daniel Stackman, and Erik Vogt
Introduction to a Series on Market Liquidity
First in a six-part series. This week, Liberty Street Economics will publish a series of five posts that shed light on the evolving nature of market liquidity. The bloggers examine various measures of liquidity in the Treasury market; consider the evolving role of high-frequency trading in financial markets, particularly the Treasury market; and investigate the stagnation of dealer balance sheets since 2009.
By Tobias Adrian, Michael Fleming, and Ernst Schaumburg
Supplemental Survey Report
The August Survey examined how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has affected businesses and how businesses are responding to the new legislation.
Business Leaders Survey
Business Leaders Survey
The August 2015 survey indicates that activity in the region’s service sector expanded modestly.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Latest survey for August 2015 finds business conditions tumbled nineteen points to -14.9, its lowest level since 2009.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
SCE Housing Survey
SCE Housing Survey—2015
Our 2015 survey finds U.S. households remain broadly optimistic about the housing market. Most renters report that they would rather own than rent if they had the necessary financial resources. As in last year’s survey, a majority believe that it would be difficult to obtain a mortgage, although responses suggest a slight easing in perceived credit access.
Greenboard with math squiggles for DSGE model artwork
In recent work, economists described the New York Fed’s dynamic stochastic equilibrium model, assessed its forecasting accuracy, and shared source code used for model estimation.
Research Topics in Focus: College grads
Is College Worth It?
Students in recent years have been paying more to attend college and earning less upon graduation—trends that have raised questions about whether a college education remains a good investment. But research from economists Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz finds that the benefits of college still tend to outweigh the costs.
Recent Articles
Do We Know What We Owe? Consumer Debt as Reported by Borrowers and Lenders
The authors compare U.S. household debt as reported by borrowers to the Survey of Consumer Finances with debt reported by lenders to Equifax using the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel. They find debt levels to be strikingly similar, with notable mismatches in credit card debt and student debt only.
By Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Policy Review, Forthcoming
Nonlinear Pricing with Competition: The Market for Settling Payments
Recognizing that payments differ in the urgency with which they need to be settled, Fedwire offers banks a decreasing block-price schedule that allows price discrimination: charging high fees for urgent payments and low fees for less urgent ones. The authors analyze banks’ demand for Fedwire funds given this nonlinear scheme, taking into account competing settlement systems.
By Adam Copeland and Rodney Garratt, Staff Reports 737, August 2015
The Term Structure of the Price of Volatility Risk
The authors estimate the term structure of the price of volatility risk and find that the price of insurance against increased volatility depends on the horizon of the risk insured. In particular, short-term insurance is much more expensive than long-term insurance. These results extend the insight that risk prices have a pronounced term structure to the market for volatility risk. P
Marianne Andries, Thomas Eisenbach, Martin Schmalz, and Yichuan Wang, Staff Reports 736, August 2015
The Price Effects of Cash versus In-Kind Transfers
The bloggers test for price effects of in-kind transfers versus cash transfers using data collected for the evaluation of a large food assistance program for the poor in Mexico, Programa de Apoyo Alimentario (PAL).
Jesse M. Cunha, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Seema Jayachandran, Staff Reports 735, August 2015
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
The authors estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution—the elasticity of expected consumption growth with respect to variation in the real interest rate—using subjective expectations from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa, Staff Reports 734, July 2015
Credit Supply and the Rise in College Tuition: Evidence from the Expansion in Federal Student Aid Programs
The authors examine detailed student-level financial data and changes in federal student aid programs to identify the impact of increased student loan funding on tuition.
David Lucca, Taylor Nadauld, and Karen Shen, Staff Reports 733, July 2015
Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays
This paper exploits unique panel data derived from credit reports to provide the first comprehensive evidence at the individual level of how homeowners manage credit during periods of financial stress.
By Sewin Chan, Andrew Haughwout, Andrew Hayashi, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Staff Reports 732, June 2015
Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
The first round of Quantitative Easing (QE1), announced in November 2008, increased both U.S. mortgage activity and real spending but its effects were smaller in parts of the country with the largest employment declines.
By Martin Beraja, Andreas Fuster, Erik Hurst, and Joseph Vavra, Staff Reports 731, June 2015
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