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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between August 4 and August 11.
Manufacturing activity in New York State picked up for a second consecutive month, according to the August survey. The general business conditions index climbed six points to 11.9, its highest level since November 2024. The new orders index rose thirteen points to 15.4, and the shipments index held steady at 12.2, pointing to increases in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders edged lower. After rising sharply last month, the inventories index retreated twenty-two points to -6.4, indicating that business inventories shrank. Delivery times were significantly longer, and supply availability was somewhat worse.
The index for number of employees remained positive at 4.4, pointing to a slight increase in employment, and the average workweek index came in at around zero, suggesting that hours worked held steady. The prices paid index was little changed at 54.1, a sign that input price increases remained steep, while the prices received index edged down to 22.9, suggesting that selling price increases remained moderate.
The index for future general business conditions fell eight points to 16.0, suggesting that businesses expect activity to increase in the months ahead, but firms were less optimistic than they were last month. New orders and shipments are expected to increase. Two-thirds of respondents expect input prices to pick up further over the next six months. Capital spending plans were soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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JAN
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FEB
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MAR
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APR
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15 report
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18 report
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17 report
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15 report
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MAY
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JUN
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JUL
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AUG
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15 report
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16 report
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15 report
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15 report
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SEP
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OCT
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DEC
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15
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15
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17
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15
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
