NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the April 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations were unchanged over the short term, increased over the medium term, and decreased over the longer term. Labor market expectations largely deteriorated in April, with households having lower expectations for both earnings growth and finding a job. Households also expect lower income growth over the next year, and their perceptions about both their current financial situation and their outlook for their financial situation one year from now deteriorated sharply. The survey was fielded from April 1 through April 30, 2025.
The main findings from the April 2025 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-year-ahead horizon at 3.6% and increased by 0.2 percentage point at the three-year-ahead horizon to 3.2%, the highest reading since July 2022. In contrast, median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point at the five-year-ahead horizon to 2.7%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) increased at the one- and three-year horizons and decreased slightly at the five-year horizon.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at all three horizons.
- Median home price growth expectations rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3%. This increase was broad-based across age, income, and education groups, and was largest for respondents in the West census region. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
- Year-ahead commodity price expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point for the price of gas to 3.5%, 0.8 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 8.7%, 2.4 percentage points for the cost of college to 9.1%, and 1.8 percentage points for rent to 9.0%. The year-ahead expected price of food decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.1%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.5% in April, the lowest reading since December 2023.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 0.1 percentage point to 44.1%, the measure’s highest reading since April 2020.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 15.3%. This decrease was most pronounced for those over the age of 60 and those with a high-school education or less. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased by 0.2 percentage point to 18.2%. This increase was driven by respondents under the age of 40, those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, and those with household income below $50,000 per year.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 49.2%, the lowest reading since March 2021. This decrease was most pronounced for respondents over the age of 60.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.6% in April, the lowest reading since April 2021.
- Median household nominal spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.2%. This increase was relatively broad-based across age and education groups.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved in April, with the net share of households reporting it is easier versus harder to obtain credit than one year ago increasing. Expectations for future credit availability were largely unchanged.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.3 percentage point to 13.9%.
- The median expected year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3% but remains well below the 12-month trailing average of 3.7%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.8%, but remains near the March 2025 series low of 4.6%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 26.5%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated sharply in April, with the share of households reporting a worse situation rising and the share reporting a better situation declining. Similarly, year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations deteriorated sharply.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.9 percentage points to 35.7%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
