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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between November 3 and November 10.
Business activity increased at a solid pace in New York State in November, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose eight points to 18.7, its fourth positive reading in the last five months. New orders and shipments increased significantly. Delivery times lengthened modestly, and supply availability worsened somewhat. Inventories expanded. Labor market indicators improved, pointing to a small increase in employment and a longer average workweek. The pace of both input price increases and selling price increases slowed slightly, but remained elevated. Capital spending plans grew. Firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, though firms were not as optimistic as last month.
Manufacturing activity grew moderately in New York State, according to the November survey. The general business conditions index climbed eight points to 18.7, its highest level since last November. The new orders index rose twelve points to 15.9 and the shipments index increased two points to 16.8, pointing to significant gains in both orders and shipments. After three months of negative readings, the inventories index rose eight points to 6.7. The delivery times index edged up to 7.7, and the supply availability index ticked down to -11.5, continuing the trend of somewhat longer delivery times and worsening supply availability.
The index for number of employees ticked up to 6.6, while the average workweek index rose to a multi-year high of 7.7, suggesting a modest increase in employment levels and hours worked. Both price indexes declined slightly but remained elevated: the prices paid index dropped three points to 49.0, and the prices received index also dipped three points to 24.0.
While firms still expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, the index for future general business conditions declined to 19.1, down eleven points from its recent high in October. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed. Firms continue to anticipate significant price increases ahead. Capital spending plans grew, with the capital expenditures index rising fourteen points to 11.5.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
