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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between February 2 and February 9.
Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 12.1, its highest level in several months. New orders increased, and shipments edged higher. Delivery times lengthened, and inventories grew. Employment levels and the average workweek both increased. Input prices rose at the fastest clip in nearly a decade, and selling prices increased significantly. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, and capital spending plans expanded noticeably.
Growth Picks Up
Manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in months in New York State in February. The general business conditions index rose nine points to 12.1, its highest level since July of last year. Thirty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 20 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose four points to 10.8, indicating that orders increased, and the shipments index fell to 4.0, pointing to a small increase in shipments. Delivery times rose at the fastest pace in a year, and inventories were higher.
Price Increases Continue to Accelerate
The index for number of employees was little changed at 12.1, indicating ongoing modest gains in employment, and the average workweek index edged up to 9.0, signaling an increase in hours worked. The prices paid index rose twelve points to 57.8, a level last reached in 2011, pointing to sharp input price increases. The prices received index climbed eight points to 23.4, its highest level in two years, pointing to a pickup in selling price increases.
Capital Spending Plans Rise
The index for future business conditions rose three points to 34.9, suggesting that firms remained optimistic about future conditions. The indexes for future new orders and shipments rose to similar levels. Delivery times are expected to lengthen and inventories are expected to increase in the months ahead, and both the future prices paid and prices received indexes were notably higher. The capital expenditures index rose to 28.6, its highest level in over a year, and the technology spending index rose to 23.4.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Tools
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