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The monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey tracks the sentiment of New York State manufacturing executives regarding business conditions.
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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between July 5 and July 11.
Business activity increased modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed twelve points to 11.1. New orders increased marginally, and shipments expanded significantly. Unfilled orders edged lower for a second consecutive month. Delivery times lengthened at the slowest pace in months, and inventories picked up. Labor market indicators pointed to a solid increase in employment and a slightly longer average workweek. While still elevated, both the prices paid and prices received indexes moved significantly lower, pointing to a deceleration in price increases. Firms turned pessimistic about the six-month outlook, a rare occurrence in the survey’s history.
Manufacturing activity expanded modestly in New York State, according to the July survey. The general business conditions index climbed twelve points to 11.1. Thirty-four percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and twenty-three percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index was little changed at 6.2, pointing to a small increase in orders, while the shipments index surged to 25.3, indicating strong growth in shipments. The unfilled orders index held steady at -5.2, indicating that unfilled orders shrank for a second consecutive month. The delivery times index fell for a third consecutive month, declining six points to 8.7, suggesting that delivery times lengthened, though at the slowest pace in over a year. The inventories index was little changed at 14.8, signaling that inventories expanded.
The index for number of employees held steady at 18.0, pointing to a solid increase in employment, and the average workweek index came in at 4.3, indicating a slight increase in hours worked. While they remained elevated, price indexes moved notably lower, indicating a deceleration in price increases. The prices paid index fell fourteen points to 64.3, and the prices received index moved down twelve points to 31.3.
Firms now expect activity to decline over the next six months, a sentiment only expressed three other times in the survey’s history. The index for future business conditions plunged twenty points to -6.2. Orders are not expected to increase, and shipments are expected to be only slightly higher. Delivery times and unfilled orders are expected to decline over the next six months, and expected price increases were lower than in recent months. The capital spending and technology spending indexes fell, but remained positive.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
