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The monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey tracks the sentiment of New York State manufacturing executives regarding business conditions.
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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between September 2 and September 9.
Business activity held steady in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed thirty points to -1.5. New orders edged higher, and shipments increased sharply. Delivery times held steady, and inventories expanded. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and no change in the average workweek. Price indexes moved notably lower, pointing to a deceleration in price increases. Looking ahead, firms were not very optimistic that business conditions would improve over the next six months.
Manufacturing activity held steady in New York State on the heels of a sharp decline last month, according to the September survey. The general business conditions index climbed thirty points to -1.5. Thirty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and thirty-two percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed thirty-three points to 3.7, indicating a slight increase in orders, while the shipments index surged forty-four points to 19.6, pointing to a rebound in shipments after they declined significantly last month. The unfilled orders index came in at -7.5, indicating that unfilled orders shrank for a fourth consecutive month. The delivery times index hovered near zero for a second consecutive month, indicating that delivery times held steady. The inventories index edged up to 9.4, a sign that inventories increased modestly.
The index for number of employees was little changed at 9.7, pointing to a modest increase in employment levels, and the average workweek index climbed to around zero, indicating no change in hours worked. The prices paid index fell sixteen points to 39.6; this index has fallen a cumulative thirty-nine points over the past three months, pointing to a significant and ongoing deceleration in price increases. The prices received index fell nine points to 23.6, its lowest level since early 2021.
The index for future business conditions rose six points to 8.2, suggesting little optimism about the six-month outlook. The index for future new orders remained depressed, though employment is expected to pick up. Delivery times are expected to shorten. Moderate increases in capital and technology spending are planned for the months ahead.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
2022
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
