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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between July 1 and July 9.
Business activity grew at a record-setting pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-six points to 43.0. New orders and shipments increased robustly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories expanded. Employment grew strongly, and the average workweek increased. Input prices continued to increase sharply, and selling prices rose at the fastest pace on record. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, with the index for future employment reaching another record high.
Manufacturing activity surged in New York State, according to the July survey. The general business conditions index rose twenty-six points to 43.0, a record high. Half of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while just seven percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed seventeen points to 33.2, and the shipments index increased thirty points to 43.8, pointing to rapid growth in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders rose. The delivery times index fell ten points from last month’s record high, though at 20.2, it indicated that significantly longer delivery times are an ongoing issue. Inventories expanded considerably.
The index for number of employees increased eight points to 20.6, and the average workweek index held steady at 14.0, pointing to ongoing gains in employment and hours worked. Both price indexes were at or near record highs, indicating that price increases remain significant. The prices paid index edged down just slightly to 76.8, while the prices received index climbed six points to 39.4, a new record.
The index for future business conditions fell eight points, but at 39.5 indicated ongoing optimism about future conditions. The indexes for future new orders and shipments fell to similar levels. The index for future employment edged up to a new record high of 43.9, with half of firms reporting that they expect to increase employment over the next six months. The indexes for future prices paid and future prices received remained elevated. The capital expenditures index rose to 26.3, and the technology spending index held steady at 14.1.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
