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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between June 3 and June 10.
Business activity declined modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index moved up ten points but remained below zero at -6.0. New orders held steady, while shipments inched higher. Delivery times shortened somewhat, and supply availability—a new monthly indicator now included in these reports—was little changed. Inventories were flat. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment and hours worked continuing to contract. The pace of input and selling price increases moderated slightly for a second consecutive month. Despite current activity remaining weak, optimism about the six-month outlook picked up to its highest level in more than two years.
Manufacturing activity fell modestly in New York State, according to the June survey. The general business conditions index rose ten points but was still in contractionary territory at -6.0. The new orders index climbed sixteen points to -1.0, suggesting orders were flat, while the shipments index moved up to 3.3, pointing to a small increase in shipments. Unfilled orders held steady. The inventories index came in at 1.0, indicating that inventories were level. The delivery times index remained below zero at -4.1, suggesting that delivery times shortened, while the supply availability index was -1.0, indicating supply availability was little changed.
The index for number of employees came in at -8.7 and the average workweek index fell to -9.9, pointing to an ongoing decline in employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index retreated four points to 24.5, and the prices received index declined seven points to 7.1, its lowest level in about a year, indicating that price increases continued to moderate.
Firms were more optimistic about the outlook than they have been in more than two years. The index for future business conditions climbed sixteen points to 30.1, with close to half of respondents expecting conditions to be better in six months. However, the outlook for employment growth remained weak, and capital spending plans still appeared sluggish.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
2024
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16 report
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15 report
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15 report
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15 report
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
