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The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.
The Center for Microeconomic Data offers wide-ranging data and analysis on the finances and economic expectations of U.S. households.
The monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey tracks the sentiment of New York State manufacturing executives regarding business conditions.
This ongoing Liberty Street Economics series analyzes disparities in economic and policy outcomes by race, gender, age, region, income, and other factors.
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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between May 2 and May 9.
Download the full report 
Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index dropped forty-three points to -31.8. New orders and shipments plunged after rising significantly last month. Delivery times shortened somewhat, and inventories contracted. Both employment and hours worked edged lower for a fourth consecutive month. Prices increased at about the same pace as last month. Capital spending plans turned sluggish. Looking ahead, businesses continued to expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months.
Manufacturing activity declined significantly in New York State, according to the May survey. After jumping into positive territory last month, the general business conditions index plunged forty-three points to -31.8. Seventeen percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while forty-nine percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index sank fifty-three points to -28.0, and the shipments index dropped forty points to -16.4, indicating that both orders and shipments declined after increasing in April. The unfilled orders index fell to -13.2, a sign that unfilled orders were lower. The delivery times index fell to -5.7, suggesting delivery times shortened somewhat. The inventories index fell to -12.3, indicating that inventories moved lower.
The index for number of employees remained negative for a fourth consecutive month at -3.3, and the average workweek index held below zero at -3.5, pointing to a slight decline in employment and hours worked. The prices paid index was little changed at 34.9, and the prices received index held steady at 23.6, suggesting the pace of price increases was little changed.
The index for future business conditions edged up to 9.8, suggesting that firms do not expect activity to improve much over the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and employment and the average workweek are expected to edge somewhat higher. The capital spending index fell to 0.9, its lowest level in three years, suggesting that capital spending plans weakened, and the technology spending index fell to 1.9.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
