Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 

Note: Survey responses were collected between July 1 and July 9.

Download the full report PDF

Business activity grew at a record-setting pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-six points to 43.0. New orders and shipments increased robustly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories expanded. Employment grew strongly, and the average workweek increased. Input prices continued to increase sharply, and selling prices rose at the fastest pace on record. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, with the index for future employment reaching another record high.

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Released at 8:30 a.m.
 



2021
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
15 report
16  report
15  report
MAY
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AUG
15 report
16 
SEP
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15 
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Historical Reports ››

 
Historical Tables

Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Data definitions 2 pages / 15 kb

Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.

For demonstration only:

Sample surveyPDF 1 page / 44 kb

Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.

The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.

Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision to reflect new seasonal factors.

Seasonal Adjustment

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.

The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.

Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:

X = log(p/(1-p))

The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:

adjX = X - seasonal factor

The result is then transformed using the following equation:

SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))

To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.



Data definitionsPDF 1 page / 15 kb

Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651

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