Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 

Note: Survey responses were collected between February 2 and February 9.

Download the full report PDF

Supplemental Survey Report focusing on recent and expected changes in firms' costs, selling prices, and wages to be released on February 21 at or shortly after 10 a.m.

Business activity edged slightly lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose forty-one points but remained negative at -2.4. New orders declined modestly, while shipments edged higher. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, and delivery times continued to shorten. Inventories declined. Employment levels were little changed, while the average workweek fell. The pace of input price increases picked up for a second straight month, and the pace of selling price increases also steepened. The six-month outlook improved, though optimism remained subdued.

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Released at or shortly after 8:30 a.m.
 



2024
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
16 report
15 report
15
15
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
15
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15
SEP
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DEC
16
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16

Historical Reports ››

 
Note: Seasonal factors were derived using data through 2019 only, and are therefore identical for the years 2020 through 2024.

Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Data definitions 2 pages / 15 kb

Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.

For demonstration only:

Sample surveyPDF 1 page / 44 kb

Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.

The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.

Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision to reflect new seasonal factors.

Seasonal Adjustment

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.

The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.

Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:

X = log(p/(1-p))

The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:

adjX = X - seasonal factor

The result is then transformed using the following equation:

SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))

To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.



Data definitionsPDF 1 page / 15 kb

Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025

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