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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between September 2 and September 10.
Business activity grew at a swift pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed sixteen points to 34.3. New orders, shipments, and unfilled orders all increased substantially. The delivery times index reached a record high. Labor market indicators pointed to strong growth in employment and the average workweek. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes were at or near record highs. Looking ahead, firms remained very optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, and capital spending and technology spending plans increased markedly.
Manufacturing activity grew swiftly in New York State, according to the September survey. The general business conditions index climbed sixteen points to 34.3. Forty-six percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 12 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose nineteen points to 33.7, and the shipments index shot up twenty-three points to 26.9, indicating strong growth in both orders and shipments. The unfilled orders index rose to 20.9. The delivery times index moved up to a record high of 36.5, indicating significantly longer delivery times. Inventories increased modestly.
The index for number of employees rose eight points to 20.5, and the average workweek index increased fifteen points to 24.3, pointing to strong gains in employment and hours worked. The prices paid index held steady at 75.7, and the prices received index edged up two points to 47.8, marking its third consecutive record high.
The index for future business conditions was little changed at 48.4, pointing to ongoing optimism about the six-month outlook. The indexes for future new orders and shipments rose to similar levels. Substantial increases in employment and prices are expected in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index climbed eleven points to 33.9, a multi-year high, and the technology spending index rose eighteen points to 33.0, a record high.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
