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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Business activity grew slightly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged up two points to 4.0. There was only a small increase in new orders, but shipments picked up. Delivery times decreased slightly, while inventories were little changed. Employment levels and hours worked both increased modestly. Input prices and selling prices increased at a slower pace than last month. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook indicated that optimism about future conditions improved somewhat but remained subdued.
Slight Growth
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity grew slightly this month but remained sluggish. The general business conditions index moved up two points to 4.0. Thirty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 26 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index was unchanged at 3.5, pointing to a small increase in orders. After reaching its lowest level in nearly three years, the shipments index rose seven points to 13.0, indicating that shipments picked up. The unfilled orders index remained negative for a fifth consecutive month, suggesting that unfilled orders continued to decline. Delivery times decreased slightly, while inventories were little changed.
Modest Employment Gains
The index for number of employees came in at 7.6, pointing to ongoing modest employment gains, and the average workweek index rose seven points to 8.3, indicating that hours worked also increased. Prices increased at a slower pace than last month: the prices paid index moved down six points to 23.1 and the prices received index slipped three points to 6.3.
Subdued Optimism
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future conditions improved somewhat but remained subdued. The index for future business conditions edged up three points to 17.1 but remained well below the levels seen for much of the past few years. The indexes for future new orders and shipments were little changed from last month, while indexes for future prices remained fairly elevated. Firms continued to expect solid increases in employment levels but no change in the average workweek in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index and technology spending index both rose to 8.8.
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Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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