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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between November 2 and November 9.
Business activity expanded in New York State, though only slightly, according to firms responding to the November 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell four points to 6.3, pointing to a slower pace of growth than in October. There was a small increase in new orders, and shipments were modestly higher. Inventories moved lower, and delivery times were steady. Employment levels and hours worked both rose. Input prices increased at about the same pace as last month, while selling price increases picked up. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months.
Growth Continues to Slow
Manufacturing activity in New York State expanded only to a small degree in November. After falling seven points last month, the general business conditions index fell four points to 6.3 this month, indicating that growth continued to slow. Thirty-one percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 24 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index fell nine points to 3.7, indicating a slight increase in orders, and the shipments index fell twelve points to 6.3. Delivery times were little changed, while unfilled orders and inventories continued to decline.
Ongoing Gains in Employment
The index for number of employees rose two points to 9.4, its highest level in nearly a year, indicating a modest increase in employment levels. After rising sharply last month, the average workweek index fell eleven points to 4.8, its positive value signaling a small increase in hours worked. The prices paid index was little changed at 29.1, a sign that input prices rose at the same pace as last month. The prices received index moved up six points to 11.3, indicating a pickup in selling price increases.
Firms Remain Optimistic
The index for future business conditions held steady at 33.9, suggesting that firms remained optimistic about future conditions. The index for future new orders was positive but slightly lower than last month. Employment levels and the average workweek are expected to continue to increase in the months ahead. Indexes for future prices paid and prices received both picked up for a second consecutive month. The capital expenditures and technology spending indexes both climbed to 17.9, suggesting ongoing planned increases in spending on capital and technology.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Tools
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