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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between January 3 and January 10. Seasonal factors were derived using data through 2019 only, and are therefore identical for the years 2020 through 2023.
Business activity contracted sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-two points to -32.9. New orders and shipments declined substantially. Delivery times held steady, and inventories edged higher. Employment growth stalled, and the average workweek shortened. Input price increases slowed considerably, and selling price increases also moderated. Looking ahead, firms expect little improvement in business conditions over the next six months.
Manufacturing activity fell steeply in New York State, according to the January survey. The general business conditions index fell twenty-two points to -32.9, its lowest level since mid-2020 and the fifth worst reading in the survey’s history. Eleven percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and forty-four percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index dropped twenty-eight points to -31.1, and the shipments index also declined twenty-eight points to -22.4, pointing to a steep decline in both orders and shipments. The unfilled orders index edged down to -14.3, a sign that unfilled orders were lower. The delivery times index came in at 0.0, indicating that delivery times were unchanged. The inventories index held steady at 4.5, pointing to a small increase in inventories.
The index for number of employees fell eleven points to 2.8, its lowest level in more than two years, signaling that employment growth stalled. The average workweek index remained negative at -10.4, indicating a decline in hours worked. Input price increases slowed considerably, with the prices paid index dropping eighteen points to 33.0. Selling price increases also moderated, with the prices received index falling six points to 18.8.
The index for future business conditions held steady at 8.0, suggesting that firms expect little improvement over the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to rise somewhat, while employment is expected to increase only modestly. The capital spending index held steady at 22.3, and the technology spending index rose to 17.0.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
2023
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APR
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17 report
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15
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15
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17
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15
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DEC
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
