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The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
The College Fed Challenge is a team competition for undergraduates inspired by the working of the Federal Open Market Committee.
The Community Credit interactive highlights credit conditions, including measures of credit inclusion and stress, at the national, state and county levels.
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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Business activity rebounded modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory, rising thirteen points to 4.3. New orders were little changed, and shipments increased. Unfilled orders and inventories continued to move lower, while delivery times were longer. The employment index remained negative, falling to its lowest level in nearly three years. Input price increases continued to moderate somewhat, while the pace of selling price increases remained modest. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook indicated that firms were fairly optimistic about future conditions.
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity grew modestly in July. After declining substantially last month, the general business conditions index returned to positive territory, rising thirteen points to 4.3. Thirty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 26 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose, but it remained negative at -1.5. The shipments index moved slightly lower to 7.2, pointing to a small increase in shipments. Unfilled orders declined for a second consecutive month. Delivery times were somewhat longer, and inventories fell.
After falling below zero last month, the index for number of employees slid further, dropping six points to -9.6, pointing to a decline in employment levels. The average workweek index, at 3.8, signaled somewhat longer workweeks. The prices paid index edged down two points to 25.5, suggesting a slightly slower pace of input price increases than last month. The prices received index was little changed at 5.8, pointing to ongoing modest selling price increases.
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook were generally somewhat higher than they were last month. The index for future business conditions increased five points to 30.8, and the index for future new orders also moved higher. Firms expected increases in employment levels but no change in the average workweek in the months ahead. After posting a substantial decline last month, the capital expenditures index rose nine points to 19.0, and the technology spending index inched up to 14.6.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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Historical Reports ››
Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
