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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between September 5 and September 12.
Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose twenty-one points to 1.9. New orders and shipments increased. Delivery times remained steady, and inventories continued to contract. Labor market indicators pointed to a slight decline in employment levels and the average workweek. The pace of input price increases was similar to last month, while selling price increases picked up. Looking ahead, firms continued to grow more optimistic about the six-month outlook.
Manufacturing activity held steady in New York State, according to the September survey. After dropping sharply last month, the general business conditions index reversed course and climbed twenty-one points to 1.9. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while twenty-five percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index shot up twenty-five points to 5.1, and the shipments index also rose twenty-five points to 12.4, pointing to an increase in orders and shipments. The unfilled orders index remained below zero at -5.2, a sign that unfilled orders continued to decline. Similarly, the inventories index came in at -6.2, indicating that inventories contracted again. The delivery times index ticked up to 2.1, suggesting little change in delivery times.
The index for number of employees came in at -2.7, indicating a slight decline in employment levels, and the average workweek index edged up to -5.0, indicating another monthly decline in hours worked. The prices paid index held steady at 25.8, pointing to little change in the pace of input price increases, while the prices received index rose seven points to 19.6, signaling a modest pickup in the pace of selling price increases.
The index for future business conditions rose six points to 26.3, its highest level in more than a year, suggesting that firms have become more optimistic about future conditions. New orders and shipments are expected to increase significantly in the months ahead, and employment is expected to grow. The capital spending index edged down to 10.3, suggesting that capital spending plans remained somewhat weak.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
2023
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17 report
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
