Applied Macroeconomics
& Econometrics Center (AMEC)

  Developing models and tools for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.
 
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)
The index integrates transportation cost data and manufacturing indicators to provide a gauge of global supply chain conditions.
Weekly Economic Index
The index provides a signal of the state of the U.S. economy based on high-frequency consumer, labor market, and production data.
(Updated: Weekly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast
Quarterly forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and the real natural rate of interest generated by the New York Fed’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.
(Updated: Quarterly)
Treasury Term Premia
Daily and monthly estimates of the term premium component of Treasury yields for bond maturities from one to ten years.
(Updated: Daily)



Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
The measures capture sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.
(Updated: Monthly)
The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
This model uses the difference between long-term and short-term Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States.
(Updated: Monthly)

Publications
FEATURED ARTICLES
International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem KALEMLI-ӦZCAN, Mehmet Fatih Ulu, and Yusuf Soner Baskaya
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, March 2022
On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns
Richard K. Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov
ECONOMETRICA, January 2022
The Mortgage Rate Conundrum
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, January 2022
Identifying Shocks via Time-varying Volatility
Daniel J. Lewis
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, November 2021
The Size-Power Tradeoff in HAR Inference
Eben Lazarus, Daniel J. Lewis, and James H. Stock
ECONOMETRICA, September 2021
What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?
Fatih Guvenen, Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song
ECONOMETRICA, September 2021
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, August 2021
Archive
2022
Robust Inference in Models Identified via Heteroskedasticity
Daniel J. Lewis
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, May 2022
The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation
Sushant Acharya and Keshav Dogra
JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, April 2022
Credit Spreads, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy
Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: MACROECONOMICS, April 2022
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, March 2022
The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of Wage-Price Pass-Through
Sebastian Heise, Fatih Karahan, and Ayşegül Şahin
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, February 2022
2021
Household Search and the Marital Wage Premium
Laura Pilossoph and Shu Lin Wee
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: MACROECONOMICS, October 2021
Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index
Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, James H. Stock, and Mihir Trivedi
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Forthcoming
Financial Frictions and Macro-Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
Ozge Akinci
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, September 2021
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing?
Simon Mongey, Laura Pilossoph, and Alexander Weinberg
THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC INEQUALITY, August 2021
High-Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic
Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, James H. Stock, and Mihir Trivedi
AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, May 2021
Labor Market Policies during an Epidemic
Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See
JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS, February 2021
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Frank Schorfheide
THE ECONOMETRICS JOURNAL,, January 2021
2020
The Research–Policy Nexus: ZLB, JMCB, and FOMC
John C. Williams
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, December 2020
Discussion of “Monetary Policy Challenges From Falling Natural Interest Rates,” by Klaus Adam
Argia M. Sbordone
CENTRAL BANKS IN A SHIFTING WORLD, ECB FORUM CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, November 2020
Alternative Indicators for Chinese Economic Activity Using Sparse PLS Regression
Jan J. J. Groen and Michael Nattinger
ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, October 2020
The Impact of Foreign Slowdown on the U.S. Economy: An Open Economy DSGE Perspective
Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, and Paolo Pesenti
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW,, October 2020
Nowcasting the Great Recession
Domenico Giannone, Eric Qian, Argia M. Sbordone, Mihir Trivedi, and Patrick Adams
IN ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS, C. JAMES HUENG, ED., August 2020
Characteristic-Sorted Portfolios: Estimation and Inference
Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Ernst Schaumburg
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, July 2020
COVID-19: A Double Whammy of Financial and Economic Sudden Stops for Emerging Economies
Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
IN COVID-19 IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, S. DJANKOV AND U. PANIZZA, EDS., CEPR PRESS, June 2020
Understanding HANK: Insights from a PRANK
Sushant Acharya and Keshav Dogra
ECONOMETRICA, May 2020
Discussion of “Should Germany Have Built a New Wall?”
Tommaso Porzio and Sebastian Heise
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, April 2020
What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?
Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, (SPRING), March 2020
Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates
IN STRATEGIES FOR MONETARY POLICY, JOHN H. COCHRANE AND JOHN B. TAYLOR, EDS. HOOVER INSTITUTION PRESS, January 2020
2019
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
Michele Cavallo, Marco Del Negro, W. Scott Frame, Jamie Grasing, Benjamin A. Malin, and Carlo Rosa
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING, December 2019
DSGE Forecasts of the Lost Recovery
Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Abhi Gupta, Pearl Li, and Erica Moszkowski
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, October 2019
Nonlinearity and Flight-to-Safety in the Risk-Return Trade-off for Stocks and Bonds 
Tobias Adrian, Richard K. Crump, and Erik Vogt
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, August 2019
Normality Tests for Latent Variables
Martín Almuzara, Dante Amengual, and Enrique Sentana
QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS, July 2019
Statistical Discrimination and Duration Dependence in the Job Finding Rate
Gregor Jarosch and Laura Pilossoph
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, July 2019
When the United States Sneezes…
John C. Williams
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE, July 2019
Credit Supply and the Housing Boom
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, June 2019
Global Trends in Interest Rates
Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, Marc Giannoni, and Andrea Tambalotti
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, May 2019
Flow Origins of Labor Force Participation Fluctuations
Fatih Karahan, Gizem Kosar, and Ayşegül Şahin
AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, May 2019
Global Spillovers in a Low Interest Rate Environment
Sushant Acharya and Paolo Pesenti
OXFORD RESEARCH ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, May 2019
Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, March 2019
A Unified Approach to Measuring u* 
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Ayşegül Şahin
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, (SPRING), March 2019
Geographic Reallocation and Unemployment during the Great Recession: The Role of the Housing Bust
Fatih Karahan and Serena Rhee
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND CONTROL, March 2019

Working Papers
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2020, Revised October 2022
Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects
Daniel J. Lewis
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2019, Revised July 2022
A Bayesian Approach for Inference on Probabilistic Surveys
Marco Del Negro, Roberto Casarin, and Federico Bassetti
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2022
Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yildirim
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2022
Measuring Corporate Bond Market Dislocations
Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, Anna Kovner, and Or Shachar
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2021, Revised June 2022
Government Procurement and Access to Credit: Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Implications
Julian di Giovanni, Manuel García-Santana, Priit Jeenas, Enrique Moral-Benito, and Josep Pijoan-Mas
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2022, Revised June 2022
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
Brandyn Bok, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2022, Revised May 2022
Micro and Macro Effects of UI Policies: Evidence from Missouri
Fatih Karahan, Kurt Mitman, and Brendan Moore
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2019, Revised April 2022
A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys
Olivier Armantier, Argia M. Sbordone, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2022
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms
Andrea Ajello, Nina Boyarchenko, Francois Gourio, and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2022
Deconstructing the Yield Curve
Richard K. Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2019, Revised January 2022
Archive
2021
Subsidizing Startups under Imperfect Information
Davide Melcangi and Javier Turen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2021
A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Domenico Giannone, Eric Qian, and Argia M. Sbordone
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2021
Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Shuo Cao, Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2020, Revised August 2021
On Binscatter
Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Yingjie Feng
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2019, Revised August 2021
Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume
Daniel J. Lewis, Davide Melcangi, and Laura Pilossoph
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2019, Revised July 2021
Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis
Davide Melcangi
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2019, Revised July 2021
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter
Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2021
Interest, Reserves, and Prices
Gianluca Benigno and Pierpaolo Benigno
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2021
U.S. Market Concentration and Import Competition
Mary Amiti and Sebastian Heise
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, May 2021
Aggregate Output Measurements: A Common Trend Approach
Martín Almuzara, Gabriele Fiorentini, and Enrique Sentana
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2021
Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit
Fatih Karahan, Benjamin Pugsley, and Ayşegül Şahin
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, May 2019, Revised March 2021
2020
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
Julian di Giovanni, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Isabelle Mejean
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2020
Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2020
Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses
Jan J. J. Groen, Michael Nattinger, and Adam I. Noble
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, September 2020
Stock Market Participation, Inequality, and Monetary Policy
Davide Melcangi and Vincent Sterk
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2020
Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty
Gianluca Benigno and Jan J. J. Groen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2020
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, and Keshav Dogra
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2020
The Global Financial Resource Curse
Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2020
Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?
Daniel J. Lewis, Christos Makridis, and Karel Mertens
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, September 2019, Revised January 2020
2019
Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital
Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2019
Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Rebucci, and Eric R. Young
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2019
Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets
Sebastian Heise and Tommaso Porzio
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2019
Firm-to-Firm Relationships and the Pass-Through of Shocks: Theory and Evidence
Sebastian Heise
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2019
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Frank Schorfheide
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2019
Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets
Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2018, Revised May 2019
More
The Time-Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market
Andreas Fuster, Stephanie H. Lo, and Paul Willen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2017
Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects
Marcus Hagedorn, Fatih Karahan, Iourii Manovskii, and Kurt Mitman
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2013
Liberty Street Economics
Short-Dated Term Premia and the Level of Inflation
September 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2022
September 2022
How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?
August 2022
Pass-Through of Wages and Import Prices Has Increased in the Post-COVID Period
August 2022
Pandemic Wage Pressures
August 2022
Climate Change: Implications for Macroeconomics
July 2022
How Could Oil Price and Policy Rate Hikes Affect the Near-Term Inflation Outlook?
June 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022
June 2022
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: May 2022 Update
May 2022
Inflation Persistence: How Much Is There and Where Is It Coming From?
April 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2022
March 2022
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update
March 2022
Disinflation Policies with a Flat Phillips Curve
March 2022
Drivers of Inflation: The New York Fed DSGE Model’s Perspective
March 2022
The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures
January 2022
The Effect of Inequality on the Transmission of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
January 2022
The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Inequality
January 2022
A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
January 2022
When Will U.S. Exports Take Off?
January 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2021
December 2021
Archive
2021
High Import Prices along the Global Supply Chain Feed Through to U.S. Domestic Prices
November 2021
Hey, Economist! Tell Us about the New Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center
November 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2021
September 2021
Has Market Power of U.S. Firms Increased?
June 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2021
June 2021
COVID-19 and Small Businesses: Uneven Patterns by Race and Income
May 2021
How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Affect Emerging Market Economics?
May 2021
Who’s Ready to Spend? Constrained Consumption across the Income Distribution
May 2021
Many Small Businesses in the Services Sector Are Unlikely to Reopen
May 2021
“Excess Savings” Are Not Excessive
April 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2021
March 2021
The Persistent Compression of the Breakeven Inflation Curve
March 2021
Measuring the Forest through the Trees: The Corporate Bond Market Distress Index
February 2021
Black and White Differences in the Labor Market Recovery from COVID-19
February 2021
Discretionary and Nondiscretionary Services Expenditures during the COVID-19 Recession
January 2021
The International Spillover of U.S. Monetary Policy via Global Production Linkages
January 2021
2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2020
December 2020
Should Emerging Economies Embrace Quantitative Easing during the Pandemic?
October 2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2020
September 2020
How Did State Reopenings Affect Small Businesses?
September 2020
Did State Reopenings Increase Consumer Spending?
September 2020
What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?
September 2020
Tracking the COVID-19 Economy with the Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
August 2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2020
June 2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2020
June 2020
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?
May 2020
The Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities
May 2020
Modeling the Global Effects of the COVID-19 Sudden Stop in Capital Flows
May 2020
The Commercial Paper Funding Facility
May 2020
Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective
May 2020
How Did China’s COVID-19 Shutdown Affect U.S. Supply Chains?
May 2020
Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses
May 2020
Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index
March 2020
Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experience of U.S. Workers
March 2020
Understanding Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Models: Insights from a PRANK
February 2020
Firm-Level Shocks and GDP Growth: The Case of Boeing’s 737 MAX Production Pause
February 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two
February 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One
February 2020
2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019
December 2019
Real Inventory Slowdowns
November 2019
Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms’ Supply Chains
November 2019
Job Ladders and Careers
October 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019
September 2019
Minimum Wage Impacts along the New York-Pennsylvania Border
September 2019
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
August 2019
Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15
July 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019
June 2019
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—April 2019
April 2019
The Keynesian Growth Approach to Macroeconomic Policy and Productivity
April 2019
Expecting the Unexpected: Job Losses and Household Spending
March 2019
Global Trends in Interest Rates
February 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—January 2019
February 2019
Monitoring Economic Conditions during a Government Shutdown
February 2019
The Perplexing Co-Movement of the Dollar and Oil Prices
January 2019
The Impact of Import Tariffs on U.S. Domestic Prices
January 2019
More
Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub
August 2018
A Monthly Underlying Inflation Gauge
September 2017
Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge
May 2017
Forecasting with Julia
May 2017
Introducing the FRBNY Nowcast
April 2016
The FRBNY DSGE Model Meets Julia
December 2015
Discounting the Long Run
August 2015

Spotlight
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
The authors introduce the concept of the financial stability real interest rate, r**. As a vehicle to illustrate their idea, they use a macroeconomic banking model where the banking sector faces a constraint in terms of a limit on the amount of funds that it can raise. r** is the threshold interest rate above which the constraint becomes binding. They show that as the banking sector becomes more leveraged, r** falls.
october 6, 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2022
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2022.
September 23, 2022
 
EVENTS
Inflation: Risks, Implications, and Policies
The goal of the upcoming symposium is to stimulate a thought-provoking debate among participants—who will include academics, practitioners, and policymakers—on the implications of high inflation and the policies needed to combat it.
November 4, 2022
Climate Symposium
The goal of the Symposium was to stimulate a thought-provoking debate on the topic of climate change and its implications for the macroeconomy.
May 13, 2022
Symposium on Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics
On November 12, participants examined the effect of monetary and fiscal policy on inequality, with particular emphasis on the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic.
November 12, 2021
 
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CONTACT AMEC
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