Authors: Olivier Armantier, Argia M. Sbordone, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams
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Staff Reports
A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys
Number 1007
February 2022
February 2022
JEL classification: D12, D84, E31, E52
We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using “strategic surveys.”
Namely, we measure households’ revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented
with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal
interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long-run inflation expectations. We implement the
method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation
expectations was in question. We find that the risk of unanchoring of expectations was reasonably low in
both periods, and that long-run inflation expectations were essentially as well anchored in August 2021 as
in July 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
See the appendix below for the survey questionnaire designed for this study.
AUTHOR DISCLOSURE STATEMENT(S)
Olivier Armantier
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Argia Sbordone
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Giorgio Topa
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Wilbert van der Klaauw
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
John C. Williams
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Argia Sbordone
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Giorgio Topa
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Wilbert van der Klaauw
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
John C. Williams
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.
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