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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
Black and white photo of a bank run on the American Union Bank which collapsed and went out of business on June 30, 1931.
What Do Over 3,000 Bank Runs Teach Us About Banking Crises?
Runs on financial institutions are salient markers of financial crises, but their role is debated. One view is that runs trigger small shocks into full-blown banking crises. Another view is that runs exacerbate crises rather than being their primary cause. The authors use a new database of more than 3,000 bank runs to show that poor fundamentals are central to explaining both when runs occur and when they have severe economic effects.
By Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner
Germany and United States government bonds, yield and price information. Bond market trading, interest rates, treasury bonds, investment.
Liquidity Fades as Treasuries Age
More than $30 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt is outstanding. Less than 4 percent of this amount, associated with on-the-run securities, accounts for 65 percent of average daily trading volume. The remaining portion is accounted for by seasoned issues that have been replaced by newer benchmarks. The authors review the key results in their previous paper using transaction-level Treasury TRACE data to study how trading activity and liquidity evolve as securities move from on-the-run to off-the-run.
By Alain Chaboud, Ellen Correia Golay, Michael J. Fleming, Yesol Huh, Frank M. Keane, and Or Shachar
How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?
The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. The authors analyze how emerging market economies fared through the U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle of 2022-23 relative to predictions of a model calibrated to capture empirically relevant features of these economies based on historical data.
By Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto
The Post-COVID Decline in the Labor Share
The labor share of income in the U.S., which measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries, is currently at its lowest-ever level in the post-war period. After drops in the 2000s, the labor share fell sharply again after the COVID pandemic. The authors compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the continuation of a trend or a new and distinct phenomenon.
By Richard Audoly, Miles Guerin, Srinidhi Narayanan, and Rachel Schuh
Synthetic Stablecoins and Financial Stability
In October 2025, the announcement of a potential additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods drove risk-off moves across equities, Treasuries, credit spreads, and digital assets. Digital asset prices fell sharply, trading volumes surged, and liquidity vanished from key exchanges. The authors show how the price shock in digital assets was transmitted and amplified through synthetic stablecoins—crypto assets that turned an external shock into a self-reinforcing deleveraging spiral within the crypto ecosystem.
By Pablo D. Azar and Jeff Garofano
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026
The authors present an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. They describe their forecast and its change since March 2026.
By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Labor Market Tightness Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
AI generated, people walking in office building.
Labor Market Tightness Index
The HPW Labor Market Tightness Index is an indicator of labor market tightness for summarizing current wage pressures and predicting wage inflation.
Photo: a four-panel picture of people cleaning up after natural disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters provides county-level estimates of the economic and human impact of extreme weather events in the United States.
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions continued to be challenging for recent college graduates at the start of 2026. The unemployment rate remained elevated at about 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026, though the underemployment rate edged down to 41.5 percent.
Recent Publications
Regulatory Arbitrage Within the Firm
Regulation shapes the boundaries of firms. When prudential standards bind asymmetrically across subsidiaries of an integrated organization, internal capital markets become a mechanism for regulatory arbitrage. The authors study this in U.S. banking, where holding companies encompass both heavily regulated depository institutions and lightly regulated nonbank affiliates. They find that organizational structure is a fundamental determinant of regulatory outcomes.
Nicola Cetorelli and Shohini Kundu, Staff Report 1196, revised June 2026
Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges
Firms adjust output prices infrequently despite continuously evolving economic conditions, leading their prices to drift from those that maximize flow profits. The authors study cost-price dynamics in a cross-section of firms in order to jointly explain the time series of aggregate inflation and the frequency of price changes, both during normal times and inflation surges. Their analysis provides novel evidence and insights about the passthrough of costs into prices in both the cross-section of firms and aggregate time-series.
Luca Gagliardone, Mark Gertler, Simone Lenzu, and Joris Tielens, Staff Report 1195, May 2026
Bayesian Persuasion and Cryptography
Bayesian Persuasion assumes that a sender can commit ex ante to an information structure and then release the realized signal ex post. This paper asks when that commitment technology can itself be implemented. The author defines “Receiver-Private Certified Bayesian Persuasion” and shows that this benchmark is equivalent in cryptographic power to secure two-party computation, demonstrating that hiding the signal from the sender is necessary.
Pablo D. Azar, Staff Report 1194, May 2026
Financial Shocks, Productivity, and Prices
Financial crises are frequently followed by persistent slowdowns in aggregate productivity growth. The authors study the interconnection between the productivity and pricing effects of financial shocks. They show that a tightening of credit conditions has a persistent, yet delayed, negative effect on firms’ long-run physical productivity growth while also inducing firms to change their pricing policies. Also, they demonstrate that the pricing adjustments themselves have productivity implications.
Simone Lenzu, David A. Rivers, Joris Tielens, and Shi Hu, Staff Report 1193, April 2026
Artificial Intelligence and Monetary Policy: A Framework and Perspective on Cyclical Transmission, Structural Transition, and Financial Stability
The author develops a framework analyzing how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes monetary policy through three interrelated channels: cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability. Given that central bank mandates center on price stability and financial stability, these developments place AI squarely within the domain of central banking. The author argues that AI does not call for a redefinition of central banks’ objectives, but it does require a recalibration of existing frameworks.
Simone Lenzu, Staff Report 1192, April 2026
Estimating Demand Shocks from Foot Traffic: A Big-Data Approach
Demand shocks in the service, retail trade, and health sectors are challenging to measure because output only occurs when a customer arrives at an establishment. The authors leverage high-frequency foot-traffic data to estimate demand shocks across New York City’s retail, service, and health sectors. Their analysis shows that demand dynamics in these customer-facing industries are fundamentally heterogeneous: establishments differ systematically in the persistence, volatility, and growth patterns of their demand processes.
Marina Azzimonti, David Wiczer, and Yang Xuan, Staff Report 1191, April 2026
Structural Changes in Investment and the Waning Power of Monetary Policy
Growing evidence suggests that monetary policy shocks have smaller effects on economic activity now than in the past, even putting aside issues of an effective lower bound on interest rates. The authors propose a partial explanation: secular change in both the production and composition of investment goods has weakened private investment’s role in the transmission of monetary policy to labor earnings and consumption. They demonstrate how these results may have important implications for optimal monetary policy.
Justin Bloesch and Jacob P. Weber, Staff Report 1190, March 2026
Repo and the Liquidity Risk Premium
Intermediating funds in the U.S. short-term money markets involves risk, which can be mitigated by holding buffers of liquid securities. The cost of holding these buffers, the liquidity risk premium, is driven by the opportunity cost of holding money and therefore is influenced by monetary policy. The authors use detailed data on the pricing of repurchase agreements (repo) to measure how changes in monetary policy affect the liquidity risk premium embedded in repo pricing.
Adam Copeland and Owen Engbretson, Staff Report 1189, March 2026


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     –Kartik Athreya, Research Director

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