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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
Interoperability of Blockchain Systems and the Future of Payments
The authors use a three-pillar framework to characterize how technological, legal, and economic factors contribute to the interoperability of blockchain systems. They find that while blockchain systems provide interesting and innovative technological means to facilitate interoperability, connecting multiple blockchain systems to enable crypto assets (or their representations) to move across them, without developing sound legal and institutional environments, could lead to lower interoperability and violations in the singleness of money not present with more traditional forms of
By Jon Durfee, Michael Junho Lee, Joseph Torregrossa, and Sarah Yu Wang
Credit Score Impacts from Past Due Student Loan Payments
The authors discuss how the post-pandemic return of negative reporting of past due balances will impact the credit standing of student loan borrowers. Using the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, they find that more than nine million student loan borrowers will face significant drops in credit score once delinquencies appear on credit reports in the first half of 2025.
By Daniel Mangrum and Crystal Wang
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2025
The authors present an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. They describe their forecast and its change since December 2024.
By Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula
When the Household Pie Shrinks, Who Gets Their Slice?
The authors investigate which debts consumers forego repaying when they are in financial distress. Using data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax (CCP) to identify households with multiple debts and their delinquency patterns, they find these households to be increasingly emphasizing their auto loan and mortgage payments. Furthermore, they believe this continuing shift in prioritization could contribute to rising credit card delinquencies.
By Jacob Conway, Natalia Fischl-Lanzoni, and Matthew Plosser
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
After a period of high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years, dropping from a peak of 9.1 percent in 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. However, firms expect both cost and price increases to move higher in 2025, with year-ahead inflation expectations rising from 3 percent last year at this time to 3.5 to 4 percent, though longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored at around 3 percent.
By Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Ben Hyman
Comparing Apples to Apples: “Synthetic Real Time” Estimates of R Star
The natural rate of interest, commonly called “r-star,” is the real, inflation-adjusted interest rate expected to prevail when supply and demand in the economy are in balance and inflation is stable. Cho and Williams create new “synthetic real-time” estimates of r-star in the U.S. from the Laubach-Williams (2003) and Holston-Laubach-Williams (2017) models, using vintage datasets. These estimates enable apples-to-apples comparisons of the behavior of real-time r-star estimates over the past quarter century.
By Sophia Cho and John C. Williams
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
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The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Decorative Image - variety of polaroid portraits of diverse group of people
EGIs
Broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a national and regional level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
The labor market for recent college graduates improved at the end of 2024. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent; the underemployment rate dropped to 38.7 percent—its lowest level in nearly two years.
Recent Publications
Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume
Earnings uncertainty is central to most heterogeneous-household models. Yet, there is surprisingly little evidence on how subjective uncertainty is related to consumption behavior. Using unique data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the authors show that the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is increasing and concave in individual specific earnings growth uncertainty.
Gizem Koşar and Davide Melcangi, Staff Report 1148, April 2025
Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich
Monetary policymakers face a tradeoff between the variability of inflation and real activity. However, both the experience of recent decades and the heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) literature developed over the same period make it clear that such tradeoffs may be very different for different households. The authors use an estimated medium-scale HANK model to investigate how the tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and consumption volatility varies for households with different levels of wealth.
Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula, Staff Report 1147, April 2025
U.S. Treasury Market Functioning from the GFC to the Pandemic
The authors examine U.S. Treasury securities market functioning from the global financial crisis (GFC) through the Covid-19 pandemic, given the ensuing market developments and associated policy responses. They describe factors that have meaningfully affected liquidity provision since the GFC and discuss the effects of these changes in both normal times and times of stress, concluding with a discussion of policy implications, including recent policy initiatives that are intended to promote market resilience.
Tobias Adrian, Michael Fleming, and Kleopatra Nikolaou, Staff Report 1146, April 2025
Coexistence of Banks and Non-Banks: Intermediation Functions and Strategies
The non-bank financial institution sector as a whole has grown at a remarkable pace over the last twenty years. But how does non-bank financial intermediation emerge and interact with intermediation performed by banks? The authors survey recent models of non-bank financial intermediaries to better understand some key forms of non-bank intermediation, draw parallels and conclusions across them, identify the drivers behind their emergence and growth, and further investigate their interaction with banks.
Nicola Cetorelli, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Asani Sarkar, Staff Report 1145, March 2025
Bank Economic Capital
Assessments of bank solvency are central to the monitoring and regulation of banks. However, conventional measures of bank solvency fail to account for the unique liquidity risks posed by deposits. The authors use public regulatory data to develop a novel measure, economic capital, that jointly quantifies the impact of credit, liquidity, and market risk on bank solvency. They find that bank economic capital is a more timely and accurate indicator of bank health than standard solvency measures.
Beverly Hirtle and Matthew C. Plosser, Staff Report 1144, March 2025
Credit Card Banking
Credit card interest rates in the United States currently average 23 percent, far exceeding any other major type of loan or bond. Why are these rates so high? To find out, the authors analyze credit card lending as an asset class and compare its pricing to other types of lending. They also investigate all the streams of revenues and costs involved in this business, and whether market power plays an important role in them.
Itamar Drechsler, Hyeyoon Jung, Weiyu Peng, Dominik Supera, and Guanyu Zhou, Staff Report 1143, March 2025
The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking
Financial crises involve high social costs, so banks are heavily regulated. Some regulations introduce state-contingency into the returns of short-term creditors while others do not. A major impediment to designing effective regulation is the information gap between banks and regulators, and banks may use shadow technologies to circumvent regulation. The authors study the optimal mix of state-contingent and non-contingent regulation, finding that state-contingent regulation is more likely to be constrained by the threat of shadow banking.
Kinda Hachem and Martin Kuncl, Staff Report 1142, March 2025
All-to-All Trading in the U.S. Treasury Market
Despite the U.S. Treasury market being the deepest and most liquid securities market globally, it has faced several incidents of market disruption in recent years, raising concerns about its resilience. Some market observers have proposed all-to-all trading as a way to ease dealers’ intermediation constraints and promote Treasury market resilience. The authors explore the concept of all-to-all trading in the secondary cash Treasury market and evaluate the benefits and challenges around its adoption.
Alain Chaboud, Ellen Correia Golay, Caren Cox, Michael Fleming, Yesol Huh, Frank Keane, Kyle Lee, Krista Schwarz, Clara Vega, and Carolyn Windover, Economic Policy Review 31, no. 2
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