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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
How Distressed Are Consumers? Reconciling Diverging Credit Card Delinquency Measures
Total debt balances declined slightly in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. However, the percentage of credit card balances 90+ days delinquent rose from 7.6 percent to 12.8 percent between 2022 and 2026. The authors use data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel to better understand the state of the consumer and to explain the difference between two measures of delinquency.
By Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, Tejas Sinha, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Stripping STRIPs Trading Activity
Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS) are zero-coupon securities created from the separation of cash flows on a Treasury security into the underlying coupon and principal components. In March 2020, FINRA began reporting aggregate trading volume for Treasuries; however, this did not include STRIPS. The authors provide the first detailed analysis of STRIPS trading activity using FINRA’s Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) transactions data.
By Michael Fleming and Or Shachar
Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?
Americans are moving less than they used to. Moving rates have declined steadily for decades, falling from close to 20 percent annually in the mid-1980s to below 10 percent by 2019. In this post, the authors use data from the annual SCE Housing Survey to show that this decline in mobility holds for homeowners and renters alike—with growing challenges to owning a home being an important contributing factor for renters.
By Christopher Gresh, Andrew Haughwout, Eungik Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Street Level: AI’s Impact on Labor and Hiring
In this inaugural Street Level post, Research Director Kartik Athreya discusses recent work by New York Fed staff on artificial intelligence and the labor market. He examines how AI is changing the labor market and hiring behaviors, highlighting research about how AI is likely to affect the economy overall and labor markets in particular—a top-of-mind topic for almost everyone in the workforce today.
By Kartik Athreya
A Window into Bond Investors' Uncertainty About R-Star
Monetary policymakers closely monitor the term structure of sovereign bond yields to uncover market participants' beliefs about the future monetary policy stance, inflation, and activity. A particular object of interest is the natural real rate of return, or "r-star," which acts as a guide for monetary policy decisions. But how much do bond investors know about r-star? The author explores what the term structure of interest rates can teach us about r-star and how it’s perceived by investors.
By Guillaume Roussellet
Stablecoins and (Non)Crypto Shocks: A 2026 Update
Stablecoins are digital assets whose value is pegged to that of a fiat currency, typically the U.S. dollar at a peg of one dollar per token. The authors document the continued growth of stablecoins since April 2025. They then examine how shocks from outside the crypto industry can impact the composition of stablecoins' reserve assets, using the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank and its impact on USD Coin as a case study.
By Kenechukwu Anadu, Pablo D. Azar, Sean Baker, Marco Cipriani, Thomas Eisenbach, Mattia Landoni, Gabriele La Spada, Marco Machiavelli, and J. Christina Wang
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Labor Market Tightness Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
AI generated, people walking in office building.
Labor Market Tightness Index
The HPW Labor Market Tightness Index is an indicator of labor market tightness for summarizing current wage pressures and predicting wage inflation.
Photo: a four-panel picture of people cleaning up after natural disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters provides county-level estimates of the economic and human impact of extreme weather events in the United States.
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates through the second quarter of 2026. The unemployment rate stayed elevated at about 5.6 percent, and the underemployment rate edged up to 42 percent.
Recent Publications
Three Stylized Facts About Inflation Expectations During the 2021-23 Inflation Surge
The authors document three stylized facts about household inflation expectations that stood out during the 2021–23 inflation surge: i) a temporary dislocation in the term structure of expectations, ii) an earlier peak at longer horizons, and iii) a sharp increase in the share of households expecting deflation at medium and long horizons. They show that these stylized facts are consistent with households’ narratives and pose an empirical challenge to existing models of expectation formation.
Olivier Armantier, Gizem Koşar, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams, Staff Report 1200, August 2026
Ordinal Complementarity
The authors develop and empirically test a notion of production complementarity (a higher value of one input raising the return to another) that is ordinal, meaning that it holds across all valuations of the output. Relative to existing conventions, this version of ordinal complementarity obtains more generalizable policy content: in two broad classes of planning problems, it is both a necessary and sufficient condition for optimal allocations to be monotone.
Martín Almuzara, Martín García-Vázquez, and Joseph Mullins, Staff Report 1199, August 2026
Bank Runs With and Without Bank Failure
The authors study the causes and consequences of bank runs. By applying large language models to historical newspapers, they create a comprehensive database of bank runs in U.S. history with information on 3,984 runs on individual banks from 1863 to 1934. Their novel data establishes that runs are considerably more likely in weak banks but also occur in strong banks; however, runs typically only result in failure for banks with poor fundamentals.
Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner, Staff Report 1198, July 2026
The International RBC Model Finally Works!
The standard International Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, driven by aggregate productivity shocks, fails to reconcile the empirical behavior of real exchange rates and macroeconomic variables. The authors show that incorporating uninsurable countercyclical income risk into a standard international RBC model can qualitatively and quantitatively account for the quantity puzzles in open-economy macro, which can be broadly categorized into three groups: quantity puzzles, exchange rate puzzles, and macroeconomic comovement.
Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, and Louphou Coulibaly, Staff Report 1197, July 2026
Regulatory Arbitrage Within the Firm
Regulation shapes the boundaries of firms. When prudential standards bind asymmetrically across subsidiaries of an integrated organization, internal capital markets become a mechanism for regulatory arbitrage. The authors study this in U.S. banking, where holding companies encompass both heavily regulated depository institutions and lightly regulated nonbank affiliates. They find that organizational structure is a fundamental determinant of regulatory outcomes.
Nicola Cetorelli and Shohini Kundu, Staff Report 1196, revised August 2026
Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges
Firms adjust output prices infrequently despite continuously evolving economic conditions, leading their prices to drift from those that maximize flow profits. The authors study cost-price dynamics in a cross-section of firms in order to jointly explain the time series of aggregate inflation and the frequency of price changes, both during normal times and inflation surges. Their analysis provides novel evidence and insights about the passthrough of costs into prices in both the cross-section of firms and aggregate time-series.
Luca Gagliardone, Mark Gertler, Simone Lenzu, and Joris Tielens, Staff Report 1195, May 2026
Bayesian Persuasion and Cryptography
Bayesian Persuasion assumes that a sender can commit ex ante to an information structure and then release the realized signal ex post. This paper asks when that commitment technology can itself be implemented. The author defines “Receiver-Private Certified Bayesian Persuasion” and shows that this benchmark is equivalent in cryptographic power to secure two-party computation, demonstrating that hiding the signal from the sender is necessary.
Pablo D. Azar, Staff Report 1194, May 2026
Financial Shocks, Productivity, and Prices
Financial crises are frequently followed by persistent slowdowns in aggregate productivity growth. The authors study the interconnection between the productivity and pricing effects of financial shocks. They show that a tightening of credit conditions has a persistent, yet delayed, negative effect on firms’ long-run physical productivity growth while also inducing firms to change their pricing policies. Also, they demonstrate that the pricing adjustments themselves have productivity implications.
Simone Lenzu, David A. Rivers, Joris Tielens, and Shi Hu, Staff Report 1193, April 2026


The Research Mission
“A central goal of New York Fed Research is to make sure that as we learn, we share.”
     –Kartik Athreya, Research Director

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