Tweets by @NYFedResearch

Economic Research

At the New York Fed: Fifth Annual Conference on the U.S. Treasury Market
The New York Fed recently co-sponsored the fifth annual Conference on the U.S. Treasury Market with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This year’s agenda covered a variety of topics, including issues related to LIBOR transition, data transparency and reporting requirements, and market structure and risk.
By Michael J. Fleming, Peter Johansson, Frank M. Keane, and Justin Meyer
Introducing the SCE Public Policy Survey
Although many surveys measure individuals’ expectations for their own financial situations and for the economy, little is known about their outlook for public policy change. To fill this gap, we introduce the SCE Public Policy Survey as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations, tracking expectations for changes in a wide range of programs and policies, including income and capital gains tax rates, Medicare, and Social Security.
By Gizem Kosar, Kyle Smith, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Optimists and Pessimists in the Housing Market
Given the momentum in house prices over business cycles, research on consumer beliefs since the financial crisis has homed in on the potential importance of extrapolative beliefs. The authors examine how perceptions of past housing prices may shape predictions for the future, and investigate whether these tendencies shape participation in the housing market.
By Haoyang Liu and Christopher Palmer
Does U.S. Health Inequality Reflect Income Inequality—or Something Else?
The author explores the state of life-expectancy inequality in the United States and examines some of the factors underlying its evolution over the past several decades. He describes evidence that inequality in life expectancy in the United States is growing and that it has become increasingly correlated with income.
By Maxim Pinkovskiy
From the Vault: A Look Back at the October 15, 2014, Flash Rally
Five years ago today, U.S. Treasury yields plunged and then quickly rebounded for no apparent reason amid high volatility, strained liquidity conditions, and record trading volume. This “flash rally” led to several developments including the introduction of a new Treasury transactions reporting scheme. The authors revisit the episode, sharing links on related posts in the Liberty Street Economics archive.
By Michael J. Fleming, Peter Johansson, Frank M. Keane, and Justin Meyer
Endogenous Leverage and Default in the Laboratory
Do markets set collateral requirements high enough to prevent default? The authors address this question through a laboratory experiment. The laboratory results confirm that whether collateral is financial or nonfinancial matters. Default rates and loss from default are higher when the assets used as collateral are nonfinancial, stemming from laxer collateral requirements.
Marco Cipriani, Ana Fostel, and Daniel Houser, Staff Report 900, November 2019
The Federal Funds Market over the 2007-09 Crisis
To measure how the 2007-09 financial crisis affected the U.S. federal funds market, the author develops and estimates a structural model in which borrowers have an unobserved probability of default. The model estimates imply that there is an increase in the expected default probability, but the increase does not cause a severe disruption in the fed funds market because there is a simultaneous increase in the supply of funds.
Adam Copeland, Staff Report 901, November 2019
Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects
The author proposes to identify monetary policy announcement–specific decompositions of asset price changes to identify monetary policy shocks without assuming time-invariance across announcements. To do so, he treats all asset price movements over the course of an announcement day as responses to a series of news shocks. In the period following a monetary policy announcement, these news shocks can be interpreted as monetary policy shocks. The author applies this approach to each scheduled FOMC announcement from 2007-18.
Daniel J. Lewis, Staff Report 891, June 2019
Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
The authors show that the same set of policy tools that implements “constrained efficient allocation”—defined as a planning problem in which the social planner faces resource and technological constraints along with the borrowing limit—can also be used optimally by a Ramsey planner to replicate the unconstrained allocation, thus achieving higher welfare. The constrained social planner approach may lead to inaccurate characterizations of welfare-maximizing policies relative to the Ramsey approach.
Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Rebucci, and Eric R. Young, Staff Report 899, October 2019
Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets
The authors develop a novel job-ladder model that allows labor to reallocate across both firms and space. They apply their framework to analyze data on the persistent wage gap between East and West Germany. The authors find that location matters and therefore carefully measure the frictions contributing to the lack of worker mobility across space.
Sebastian Heise and Tommaso Porzio, Staff Report 898, October 2019
Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?
The authors use daily survey data from Gallup to assess whether households' beliefs about economic conditions are influenced by surprises in monetary policy announcements. They find that surprises about the federal funds target rate have statistically significant and instantaneous effects on economic confidence. In contrast, surprises about forward guidance and asset purchases do not have similar effects on household beliefs, perhaps because they are less well understood.
Daniel J. Lewis, Christos Makridis, and Karel Mertens, Staff Report 897
Firm-to-Firm Relationships and the Pass-Through of Shocks: Theory and Evidence
Using transaction-level U.S. import data, the author shows that a firm-to-firm relationship’s price becomes more responsive to exchange rate shocks both as the relationship ages and as it trades more intensively. To understand how old relationships differ from new ones, the author documents a set of stylized facts about the life cycle of a relationship. His findings suggest that aggregate mark-ups and the responsiveness of prices to shocks co-vary negatively with an economy’s relationship creation rate, which falls in recessions.
Sebastian Heise, Staff Report 896, August 2019
Corporate Credit Provision
Productive firms can access credit markets directly by issuing corporate bonds, or in an intermediated manner by borrowing through loans. The authors study the cyclical properties of corporate credit provision through these two types of debt instruments in major advanced economies. They argue that the cyclicality of corporate credit is intimately related to the cyclicality of the types of financial intermediaries active in the provision of credit.
Nina Boyarchenko and Philippe Mueller, Staff Report 895, August 2019