Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
July Survey: Inflation Expectations Tick Down at Short-Term, Remain Unchanged at Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons
  • Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also improved, with a smaller net share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now.
  • Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June, increasing by 1.4 ppt to 2.9 percent.
  • Labor market expectations were mixed, with the mean probability of a higher U.S. unemployment rate increasing by 1.1 ppt to 42.8 percent and the mean probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increasing by 0.1 ppt to 14.2 percent; however, the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.3 ppt to 46.2 percent.



For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Household Finance Expectations Improve
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
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SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
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SCE Labor Market
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SCE Public Policy
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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