Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
March Survey: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise as Gas Price Growth Expectations Surge; Labor Expectations Come in Mixed
  • Median inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point (ppt) to 3.4 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, increased by 0.1 ppt to 3.1 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.
  • Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 5.3 ppts for gas to 9.4 percent, the highest reading since March 2022.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.9 ppts to 45.9 percent; however, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months also increased by 0.6 ppt to 14.4 percent.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated compared to a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also worsened, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation at its highest level since April 2025.



For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase as Gas Price Growth Expectations Spike
SURVEY MODULES
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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