Center for Microeconomic Data

Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Continue Upward Trend
According to the May 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations, median year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 4.0 percent in May from 3.4 percent in April. This marks the measure’s seventh consecutive monthly increase and a new series high. The three-year outlook rose a more modest 0.5 percentage point. Households’ expectations about home price and rent changes, earnings, income, and spending growth all increased in May. Labor market expectations improved, with unemployment and the probability of losing one’s job both reaching series lows.

For more details:
Press Release: Consumers Expect Higher Inflation Over the Next Year and Show Optimism about Labor Market
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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