Center for Microeconomic Data

 
CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS  (Based on the SCE)
Background
CMD staff are engaged in research to better understand how consumers form, update, and act on their expectations for a range of economic variables and outcomes. As part of this effort, they designed and implemented a monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which captures respondents’ expectations for overall inflation, significant prices such as for food, gas, and education, job prospects, and earnings growth among others. Regular survey modules focus in depth on special topics including housing and access to credit.
Reports and Data
Data Bank
  • Monthly Data
  • Special Topic Data
  • Glossaries
  • Questionnaires
  • Complete Microdata
  • Partner Modules
  • Survey of Informal Work Participation
Analysis
Liberty Street Economics
Policy Dialogue
Speeches, Presentations, Conferences, and more
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on Homeownership and Housing Wealth
Beverly Hirtle, Executive Vice President and Director of Research
New York Fed, New York City, May 2018
Workshop on Subjective Expectations
New York City, May 12-13, 2016
Archive
2017
2016
2015
More
Introducing the SCE Credit Access Survey
November 2014
Why Aren’t More Renters Becoming Homeowners?
September 2014
Introducing the SCE Housing Survey
September 2014
A Review of the Experience of Fielding the Survey of Consumer Expectations
James McAndrews, Executive Vice President and Director of Research
New York Fed, New York City, June 2014
What Americans (Don’t) Know about Student Loan Collections
June 2014
Rising Household Debt: Increasing Demand or Increasing Supply?
May 2014
Remarks at the Fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop
James McAndrews, Executive Vice President and Director of Research
New York Fed, New York City, February 2014
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Household Finance Expectations
December 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor Market Expectations
December 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Measuring Price Inflation Expectations
December 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Survey Goals, Design, and Content
December 2013
Nudging Inflation Expectations: An Experiment
November 2012
Improving the Measurement of Inflation Expectations
Simon Potter, Executive Vice President
New York Fed, New York City, June 2012
A Boost in Your Paycheck: How Are U.S. Workers Using the Payroll Tax Cut?
May 2012
Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?
July 2011
What Is Driving the Recent Rise in Consumer Inflation Expectations?
April 2011
Publications
BY CMD RESEARCHERS
What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans
Andreas Fuster, Greg Kaplan, and Basit Zafar
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2018
An Overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Olivier Armantier, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2017
Home Price Expectations and Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment
LUIS ARMONA, ANDREAS FUSTER, AND BASIT ZAFAR
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, October 2016
Archive
2016
Fed Speak on Main Street
CAROLA CONCES BINDER
HAVERFORD COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, WORKING PAPER, March 2016
2015
Whose Expectations Augment the Phillips Curve?
CAROLA CONCES BINDER
ECONOMICS LETTERS, November 2015
A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada
MARC-ANDRÉ GOSSELIN AND MIKAEL KHAN
BANK OF CANADA REVIEW, September 2015
Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning
CARLOS MADEIRA AND BASIT ZAFAR
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT, AND BANKING, August 2015
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, July 2015
Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Distribution of Consumption
GIACOMO DE GIORGI AND LUCA GAMBETTI
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, March 2015
More
Informal Work Activity in the United States: Evidence from Survey Responses
ANAT BRACHA AND MARY A. BURKE
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON, CURRENT POLICY PERSPECTIVES, December 2014
The Sensitivity of Housing Demand to Financing Conditions: Evidence from a Survey
Andreas Fuster and Basit Zafar
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, November 2014
Expectations of Inflation: The Biasing Effect of Thoughts about Specific Prices
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW, AND GIORGIO TOPA
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, April 2014
Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data
MARY A. BURKE AND ALI OZDAGLI
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON WORKING PAPERS, December 2013
Negative Equity and Housing Investment
Andrew Haughwout, Sarah Sutherland, and Joseph Tracy
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, November 2013
Measuring Inflation Expectations
GIORGIO TOPA, OLIVIER ARMANTIER, WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, BASIT ZAFAR, AND SIMON POTTER
ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS, August 2013
A Boost in the Paycheck: Survey Evidence on Workers’ Response to the 2011 Payroll Tax Cuts
Grant Graziani, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, January 2013
The Price Is Right: Updating of Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment
Olivier Armantier, Scott Nelson, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, January 2012
Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?
Olivier Armantier, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar, WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, August 2011
Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, CHARLES F. MANSKI, AND GIORGIO TOPA
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, May 2011
Improving Survey Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, SIMON POTTER, ROBERT RICH, GIORGIO TOPA, AND WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK CURRENT ISSUES IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, August/September 2010
Expectations of Inflation: The Role of Financial Literacy and Demographic Variables
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, JULIE DOWNS, BARUCH FISCHHOFF, AND OLIVIER ARMANTIER
JOURNAL OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, July 2010
The Effect of Question Wording on Reported Expectations and Perceptions of Inflation
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW, JULIE S. DOWNS, BARUCH FISCHHOFF, GIORGIO TOPA, AND OLIVIER ARMANTIER
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, April 2010