Center for Microeconomic Data

 
CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS  (Based on the SCE)
Background
CMD staff are engaged in research to better understand how consumers form, update, and act on their expectations for a range of economic variables and outcomes. As part of this effort, they designed the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which captures respondents’ expectations for inflation, job prospects, and earnings growth, among other topics. The monthly "core" survey is supplemented by survey modules on special topics.
Reports and Data
Survey of Consumer Expectations (Core)
Focus: Consumer expectations regarding inflation, the labor market, and household finance. Fielded monthly since 2013.

VIEW
Survey Modules
SCE Credit Access Survey
SCE Household Spending Survey
SCE Housing Survey
SCE Labor Market Survey
SCE Public Policy Survey
Data Bank
Data and materials related to the Survey of Consumer Expectations are available in the CMD’s Data Bank including:
  • Monthly Data
  • Special Topic Data
  • Glossaries
  • Questionnaires
  • Complete Microdata
  • Partner Modules
  • Survey of Informal Work Participation
Analysis
Liberty Street Economics
Consumer Credit Demand, Supply, and Unmet Need during the Pandemic
May 2021
Credit Card Balance Declines Are Largest Among Older, Wealthier Borrowers
May 2021
An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks
April 2021
Do People View Housing as a Good Investment and Why?
April 2021
How Do Consumers Believe the Pandemic Will Affect the Economy and Their Households?
October 2020
How Have Households Used Their Stimulus Payments and How Would They Spend the Next?
October 2020
Are People Overconfident about Avoiding COVID-19?
October 2020
Consumers Expect Modest Increase in Spending Growth and Continued Government Support
September 2020
The Disproportionate Effects of Covid-19 on Households with Children
August 2020
Who Has Been Evicted and Why?
July 2020
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic
May 2020
Inflation Expectations in Times of COVID-19
May 2020
Amid the COVID-19 Outbreak, Consumers Temper Spending Outlook
May 2020
Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting
April 2020
Searching for Higher Job Satisfaction
March 2020
Archive
2019
Introducing the SCE Public Policy Survey
October 2019
Optimists and Pessimists in the Housing Market
October 2019
Job Ladders and Careers
October 2019
Transitions to Unemployment Tick Up in Latest SCE Labor Market Survey
September 2019
Did Changes in Economic Expectations Foreshadow Swings in the 2018 Elections?
May 2019
Economic Expectations Grow Less Polarized since the 2016 Election
May 2019
Expecting the Unexpected: Job Losses and Household Spending
March 2019
Deciphering Americans’ Views on Cryptocurrencies
March 2019
Introducing the SCE Household Spending Survey
February 2019
2018
A Closer Look at Recent Tightening in Consumer Credit
December 2018
Just Released: Are Employer-to-Employer Transitions Yielding Wage Growth? It Depends on the Worker’s Level of Education
September 2018
Mixed Impacts of the Federal Tax Reform on Consumer Expectations
May 2018
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on Homeownership and Housing Wealth
Beverly Hirtle, Executive Vice President and Director of Research
New York Fed, New York City, May 2018
Just Released: Is Housing a Good Investment? Where You Stand Depends on Where You Sit
April 2018
Do the Employed Get Better Job Offers?
April 2018
More
Political Polarization in Consumer Expectations
December 2017
Understanding Permanent and Temporary Income Shocks
November 2017
Just Released: Introducing the SCE Labor Market Survey
August 2017
Valuing Workplace Benefits
June 2017
Just Released: 2017 SCE Housing Survey Finds Increased Optimism about Home Price Growth
May 2017
How Do People Find Jobs?
April 2017
Measuring Americans’ Expectations following the 2016 Election
January 2017
Just Released: Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations
November 2016
How Do People Revise Their Inflation Expectations?
August 2016
Which Households Have Negative Wealth?
August 2016
Just Released: 2016 SCE Housing Survey Shows Modest Decline in Home Price Expectations
June 2016
Workshop on Subjective Expectations
New York City, May 12-13, 2016
Just Released: Five New Data Series on Consumer Expectations
February 2016
Who is Driving the Recent Decline in Consumer Inflation Expectations?
January 2016
Trends in Debt Concentration in the United States by Income
November 2015
Searching for Higher Wages
September 2015
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!
July 2015
How Sensitive Is Housing Demand to Down Payment Requirements and Mortgage Rates?
July 2015
Just Released: 2015 SCE Housing Survey Shows Households Optimistic about Housing Market
May 2015
Just Released: SCE Credit Access Survey Shows Higher Likelihood of Consumers Applying for Credit
March 2015
Introducing the SCE Credit Access Survey
November 2014
Why Aren’t More Renters Becoming Homeowners?
September 2014
Introducing the SCE Housing Survey
September 2014
A Review of the Experience of Fielding the Survey of Consumer Expectations
James McAndrews, Executive Vice President and Director of Research
New York Fed, New York City, June 2014
What Americans (Don’t) Know about Student Loan Collections
June 2014
Rising Household Debt: Increasing Demand or Increasing Supply?
May 2014
Remarks at the Fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop
James McAndrews, Executive Vice President and Director of Research
New York Fed, New York City, February 2014
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Household Finance Expectations
December 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor Market Expectations
December 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Measuring Price Inflation Expectations
December 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Survey Goals, Design, and Content
December 2013
Nudging Inflation Expectations: An Experiment
November 2012
Improving the Measurement of Inflation Expectations
Simon Potter, Executive Vice President
New York Fed, New York City, June 2012
A Boost in Your Paycheck: How Are U.S. Workers Using the Payroll Tax Cut?
May 2012
Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?
July 2011
What Is Driving the Recent Rise in Consumer Inflation Expectations?
April 2011
How Widespread Is the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Consumer Expectations?
January 0001
Publications
BY CMD RESEARCHERS
How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Olivier Armantier, Gizem Kosar, Rachel Pomerantz, Daphné Skandalis, Kyle Smith, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2020
Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital
Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2019
Understanding Migration Aversion Using Elicited Counterfactual Choice Probabilities
Gizem Kosar, Tyler Ransom, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2019
Archive
2019
Central Bank Announcements: Big News for Little People?
Michael J. Lamlaa and Dmitri V. Vinogradov
Journal of Monetary Economics, December 2019
Effective Lower Bound Risk
Timothy S. Hill, Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt
European Economic Review, November 2019
2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage
Christopher S. Henry, Kim P. Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, and Mitchell W. Nicholson
Bank of Canada, Working Paper, October 2019
Partisan Bias in Inflation Expectations
Oliver Bachmann, Klaus Gründler, Niklas Potrafke, and Ruben Seiberlich
Public Choice, October 2019
Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency
Timo Dimitriadis, Andrew J. Patton, and Patrick Schmidt
arXiv preprint arXiv:1910.12545, October 2019
Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations
Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Juan Ospina, and Michael Weber
NBER Working Paper, September 2019
Asymmetric Consumption Effects of Transitory Income Shocks
Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli, Luigi Pistaferri, and Maarten van Rooij
The Economic Journal, August 2019
Updates to Household Inflation Expectations: Signal or Noise?
Yongchen Zhao
Economics Letters, August 2019
How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos , Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Maarten van Rooij
NBER Working Paper, July 2019
Panel Conditioning in the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Carola Binder
Haverford College, Working Paper, March 2019
How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?
Christopher Roth and Johannes Wohlfart
Working Paper, February 2019
2018
The Ups and Downs of the Gig Economy, 2015-2017
Anat Bracha and Mary A. Burke
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Working Paper, December 2018
Expectations Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior
Itzhak Ben-David, Elyas Fermand, Camelia M. Kuhnen, and Geng Li
National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, December 2018
The Inattentive Consumer: Sentiment and Expectations
Rupal Kamdar
University of California, Berkeley, Working Paper, December 2018
Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump
Carola Binder
Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2018
Rationalizing Rational Expectations? Tests and Deviations
Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Christophe Gaillac, and Arnaud Maurel
National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, November 2018
Network Search: Climbing the Job Ladder Faster
Marcelo Arbex, Dennis O'Dea, and David Wiczer
International Economic Review, October 2018
Wage Inflation and Informal Work
Anat Bracha and Mary A. Burke
Economics Letters, October 2018
Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence
Carola Binder and Alex Rodrigue
Southern Economic Journal, October 2018
A Job Ladder Model with Stochastic Employment Opportunities
Jake Bradley and Axel Gottfries
Institute of Labor Economics, Working Paper, September 2018
Perception of House Price Risk and Home Ownership
Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino
National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, September 2018
What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans
Andreas Fuster, Greg Kaplan, and Basit Zafar
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2018
More
An Overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Olivier Armantier, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, December 2017
Measuring Uncertainty Based on Rounding: New Method and Application to Inflation Expectations
CAROLA C. BINDER
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, October 2017
Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise
Charles F. Manski
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, January 2017
Who Counts as Employed? Informal Work, Employment Status, and Labor Market Slack
ANAT BRACHA AND MARY A. BURKE
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON, WORKING PAPER, December 2016
Home Price Expectations and Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment
LUIS ARMONA, ANDREAS FUSTER, AND BASIT ZAFAR
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, October 2016
Fed Speak on Main Street
CAROLA CONCES BINDER
HAVERFORD COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, WORKING PAPER, March 2016
Whose Expectations Augment the Phillips Curve?
CAROLA CONCES BINDER
ECONOMICS LETTERS, November 2015
A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada
MARC-ANDRÉ GOSSELIN AND MIKAEL KHAN
BANK OF CANADA REVIEW, September 2015
Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning
CARLOS MADEIRA AND BASIT ZAFAR
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT, AND BANKING, August 2015
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, July 2015
Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Distribution of Consumption
GIACOMO DE GIORGI AND LUCA GAMBETTI
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, March 2015
Informal Work Activity in the United States: Evidence from Survey Responses
ANAT BRACHA AND MARY A. BURKE
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON, CURRENT POLICY PERSPECTIVES, December 2014
The Sensitivity of Housing Demand to Financing Conditions: Evidence from a Survey
Andreas Fuster and Basit Zafar
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, November 2014
Expectations of Inflation: The Biasing Effect of Thoughts about Specific Prices
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW, AND GIORGIO TOPA
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, April 2014
Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data
MARY A. BURKE AND ALI OZDAGLI
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON WORKING PAPERS, December 2013
Negative Equity and Housing Investment
Andrew F. Haughwout, Sarah Sutherland, and Joseph Tracy
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, November 2013
Measuring Inflation Expectations
GIORGIO TOPA, OLIVIER ARMANTIER, WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, BASIT ZAFAR, AND SIMON POTTER
ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS, August 2013
A Boost in the Paycheck: Survey Evidence on Workers’ Response to the 2011 Payroll Tax Cuts
Grant Graziani, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, January 2013
The Price Is Right: Updating of Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment
Olivier Armantier, Scott Nelson, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, January 2012
Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?
Olivier Armantier, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar, WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, August 2011
Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, CHARLES F. MANSKI, AND GIORGIO TOPA
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, May 2011
Improving Survey Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, SIMON POTTER, ROBERT RICH, GIORGIO TOPA, AND WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK CURRENT ISSUES IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, August/September 2010
Expectations of Inflation: The Role of Financial Literacy and Demographic Variables
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, JULIE DOWNS, BARUCH FISCHHOFF, AND OLIVIER ARMANTIER
JOURNAL OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, July 2010
The Effect of Question Wording on Reported Expectations and Perceptions of Inflation
WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN, WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW, JULIE S. DOWNS, BARUCH FISCHHOFF, GIORGIO TOPA, AND OLIVIER ARMANTIER
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK STAFF REPORTS, April 2010
CONTACT CMD
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