Authors: Gizem Kosar and Wilbert van der Klaauw
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Staff Reports
Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk
Number 1056
February 2023
February 2023
JEL classification: D84, D81, J31, J63, D12, C23
In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper analyzes these perceptions of earnings and employment risks using rich monthly panel data. It documents considerable individual heterogeneity in expected earnings growth and earnings growth uncertainty and in the perceived likelihood of a voluntary and involuntary job exit. We examine how these expectations evolve over the working life and the business cycle, and how they co-vary with expectations about the macro economy. Our analysis provides novel evidence on the perceived persistence in earnings growth shocks and on the association between future earnings and spending growth.
AUTHOR DISCLOSURE STATEMENT(S)
Gizem Koşar
The author declares that she has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Wilbert van der Klaauw
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
The author declares that she has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Wilbert van der Klaauw
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
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