Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — December 2016 January 9, 2017

Results from the December 2016 Survey of Consumer Expectations show that short-term inflation expectations rose significantly from November, while medium-term inflation expectations increased slightly. Labor market expectations generally improved, with an increase in earnings growth and job finding expectations, and a small decline in the perceived probability of losing one’s job. Household finance expectations also improved, showing increases in household income and spending growth and slight improvements in perceptions of credit availability. Expectations about increases in interest rates on savings accounts and in U.S. stock prices rose significantly.

Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Rise, Labor Market and Household Finance Expectations Improve
January 9, 2017

Household Debt and Credit

Total Household Debt Remains Sluggish Yet Non-Housing Debt Continues Expanding
November 30, 2016

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Housing Survey — 2016 June 2, 2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released findings from the 2016 SCE Housing Survey. The release indicates that home price growth expectations have declined somewhat relative to last year, but the majority of households still view housing as a good financial investment. Mortgage rate expectations have also declined since last year’s survey, and renters now perceive that it has become somewhat less difficult to get a mortgage if they wanted to buy a home. This latest survey marks the third installment of the Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey, which has been fielded annually every February since 2014. With this release the New York Fed is also unveiling a new SCE Housing Survey interactive web feature.

Home Price Growth Expectations Decline, but Consumers’ Outlook on Housing Remains Positive
June 2, 2016

Survey of Consumer Expectations

SCE Credit Access — October 2016 November 18, 2016

The October 2016 release shows a deterioration in consumers’ experiences in the credit market compared to the June release, with a small increase in the proportion of “discouraged” and “rejected” credit applicants. Rejection rates increased, returning to levels last seen in February 2015. The increase in rejection rates was observed for all credit types but was particularly large for applications for credit cards and credit card limit increases, and for mortgage refinancing. The expectations component of the survey also declined relative to the June findings. The proportion of respondents likely to apply for at least one type of credit over the next 12 months decreased again and reached a three-year low. Consumers are also somewhat more pessimistic about future approval rates for credit card and auto loan applications. On the other hand, the perceived likelihood of new mortgage loan and refinancing applications being rejected declined notably.

Consumers’ Credit Market Experiences and Expectations Deteriorate
November 18, 2016

Research Event

Workshop on Subjective Expectations May 12-13, 2016

A conference sponsored jointly by the New York Fed and the ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change puts the focus on research analyzing subjective expectations. The papers presented will cover issues related to measurement, expectation formation, learning, use of expectations in structural models, belief biases, and the relationship between expectations and behavior. Northwestern’s Charles Manski and Harvard’s Matthew Rabin will lead plenary sessions. Link to the agenda for more information and many of the papers.

The Center for
Microeconomic Data

The Center for Microeconomic Data serves to centralize the collection, acquisition, and analysis of microeconomic data at the New York Fed and act as a catalyst for microeconomic research by promoting engagement with the wide academic community. The wide-ranging data, research, and analysis produced in the Center provide insight into individual-level financial and nonfinancial economic conditions, expectations, and behavior in the U.S.
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