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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between July 2 and July 9. Download the full report  Read this month's Supplemental Survey Report on Ongoing recalls despite pandemic adjustment costs |
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Activity in the region’s service sector held fairly steady, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2020 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index climbed thirty-eight points to -1.8. The business climate index rose seven points, but at -75.4, it indicated that the vast majority of firms still viewed the business climate as worse than normal. Employment levels continued to decline, though at a significantly slower pace than last month, and wages held steady. Input prices increased at the same pace as in June, while selling prices continued to fall. Capital spending declined. Firms were less optimistic about the six-month outlook than in June, and the business climate is expected to be worse than normal in the months ahead.
Activity Stabilizes
Business activity in the region’s service sector held steady in July. The headline business activity index increased thirty-eight points to -1.8, its near zero reading is the index’s highest level since February. Thirty-six percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, and 37 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index rose seven points to -75.4, with 83 percent of respondents viewing the business climate as worse than normal. Employment Declines Continue
The employment index increased for a second consecutive month, but the index remained well below zero at -21.1, pointing to ongoing employment declines. The wages index climbed to 0.4, signaling that wages stabilized after declining for the prior three months. The prices paid index held steady at 20.4, indicating that input prices increased at the same pace as last month. The prices received index moved up seven points, but at -7.9, pointed to ongoing selling price declines. The capital spending index came in at -26.1, suggesting ongoing significant declines in capital spending. Optimism Wanes
Firms expected business activity to be higher over the next six months, but expect the business climate to be worse than normal. The index for future business activity fell eighteen points to 7.1, and future business climate fell twenty-two points to -8.3. Firms expected some gains in employment and wages in the months ahead, though capital spending is expected to continue to decline. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651 |
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Historical Reports >>
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
