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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between March 2 and March 10. Download the full report  Read this month's Supplemental Survey Report on initial effects of Coronavirus |
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Activity in the region’s service sector declined, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s March 2020 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell twenty-three points to -13.1, its lowest level in more than three years. The business climate index tumbled twenty-seven points to -29.0, indicating that, on balance, firms regarded the business climate as substantially worse than normal. Employment levels increased marginally, and wages increased at about the same pace as last month. Both input and selling price increases slowed notably, as did capital spending. Indexes for future activity plunged, and pointed to a marked deterioration in the six-month outlook.
Activity Declines
Business activity in the region’s service sector declined in March. The headline business activity index dropped twenty-three points to -13.1, its lowest level since October 2016. Twenty-four percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, while 37 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index fell a steep twenty-seven points to -29.0, also a three-year low, indicating that, on balance, firms viewed the business climate as worse than normal, and by a wide margin. Price Increases Slow
The employment index was little changed at 4.9, pointing to an ongoing small increase in employment levels. The wages index held steady at 46.5, indicating that the pace of wage hikes was little changed. At 36.9, the prices paid index was twelve points lower than last month, a sign that input price increases slowed. The prices received index also declined, falling six points to 20.6, signaling a deceleration in selling price increases. The capital spending index slid thirteen points to 5.0, pointing to a notable slowdown in capital spending. Optimism Plunges
Firms turned pessimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business activity fell a whopping forty-nine points to -13.7, its lowest level since 2009, and the index for future business climate plunged forty-one points to -31.4, signaling that business activity and the business climate are expected to be worse in the months ahead. While still above zero, indexes for future employment, wages, prices, and capital spending all posted substantial declines. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651 |
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Historical Reports >>
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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| All Data csv Data definitions 2 pages / 10 kb |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
