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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Download the full report  Read this month's Supplemental Survey Report on Borrowing needs and credit standards |
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Activity in the region’s service sector declined slightly, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October 2019 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index dropped nine points to -4.3—the first negative reading in more than two years. The business climate index was little changed at -14.8, indicating that, on balance, firms continued to view the business climate as worse than normal. Employment levels held steady, though wage increases remained fairly widespread. Input price increases picked up a bit, while selling prices increased at a slightly slower pace than last month. Optimism about future conditions continued to deteriorate, with firms expressing notable pessimism about the future business climate.
Activity Declined
Business activity declined slightly in the region’s service sector. The headline business activity index dropped nine points to -4.3. Twenty-four percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, while almost 29 percent said that conditions worsened. After falling last month to its lowest level in more than two years, the business climate index was little changed at -14.8, indicating that, on balance, firms continued to view the business climate as worse than normal. Employment Steady
The employment index fell five points to 2.2, pointing to little change in employment. The wages index held steady at 38.7, indicating that wage increases remained fairly widespread. The prices paid index rose four points to 43.0, suggesting input price increases picked up a bit. The prices received index edged down two points to 18.3, indicating selling prices increased at a slightly slower pace than last month. The capital spending index held steady at 14.5. Outlook Darkens
Firms were much less optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business activity, while still positive, dropped another ten points to 2.2—its lowest level since late 2012. Of note, this index has dropped more than twenty-five points over the past three months. The index for future business climate fell four points to -22.8, its lowest level since early 2009, indicating that firms expected the business climate to worsen in the months ahead. The index for future employment moved lower, while the index for future wages edged up. The index for planned capital spending was little changed at 18.1. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651 |
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Released at 8:30 a.m.
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2019
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Historical Reports >>
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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| All Data csv Data definitions 2 pages / 10 kb |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
