A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9. Download the full report ![]() |
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Business activity declined substantially in the region’s service sector in October, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell four points to -23.6, a multiyear low. The business climate index fell to -42.9, suggesting the business climate remained worse than normal. Employment edged lower, and wage growth remained modest. Supply availability continued to worsen. Input price increases remained elevated, while selling price increases slowed. On the whole, firms were slightly pessimistic about the outlook.
Activity Continues to Decline
Business activity fell more sharply than in recent months in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the October survey. The headline business activity index dropped four points to -23.6. Eighteen percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 41 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index remained negative at -42.9, with more than half of respondents saying that the business climate was worse than normal. Employment Edges Lower
The employment index fell two points to -5.2, its second consecutive negative reading, suggesting employment continued to decline. The wages index edged down to 25.9, indicating that wage growth was modest and slightly slower than last month. The prices paid index moved up three points to 66.4, signaling a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index fell six points to 26.4, its lowest level since June, indicating a slowdown in selling price increases. The supply availability index remained negative at -13.8, indicating that supply availability continued to worsen. Firms Not Expecting Much Improvement
The index for future business activity inched up to -3.4, suggesting firms were slightly pessimistic about the outlook, with about a third expecting activity to be lower in six months. Half of firms also expect the business climate to be worse. The indexes for future prices paid and future prices received both remained elevated. Firms expect little employment growth in the months ahead. Supply availability is expected to worsen, and capital spending plans remained soft. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |