A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.

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Note: Survey responses were collected between December 2 and December 9. Download the full report |
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Business activity continued to decline significantly in the region’s service sector in December, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at -20.0. The business climate index drifted down to -44.2, suggesting the business climate remained much worse than normal. Employment fell for a fourth consecutive month, and wage growth remained modest. Supply availability continued to worsen somewhat. Both input price increases and selling price increases picked up after slowing last month. Looking ahead, firms expected little improvement in conditions over the next six months.
Activity Continues to Decline
Business activity continued to fall substantially in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the December survey. The headline business activity index held steady at -20.0. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 42 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index remained well below zero at -44.2, with 55 percent reporting an unfavorable business climate. Employment Contracts Again
The employment index was little changed at -7.4, its fourth consecutive negative reading, suggesting employment continued to decline. The wages index held steady at 23.7, pointing to ongoing modest wage increases. After falling several points last month, both price indexes moved higher: the prices paid index climbed ten points to 72.1, its highest level in three years, and the prices received index rose ten points to 30.5. The supply availability index remained negative at -7.4, indicating that supply availability continued to worsen. Firms Not Optimistic
The index for future business activity came in at -1.1, suggesting that firms on the whole did not expect activity to increase over the next six months. The indexes for future prices paid and received both remained elevated. Firms expected only slight employment growth in the months ahead, and capital spending plans remained soft. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
