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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between October 1 and October 8. Download the full report  Read this month's Supplemental Survey Report on Supply disruptions |
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Growth in the region’s service sector remained modest, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October 2021 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at 15.2. The business climate index came in at -8.6, indicating that firms generally viewed the business climate as worse than normal for this time of year. Employment levels and wages continued to rise at a solid clip. The prices paid and prices received indexes remained elevated, pointing to ongoing widespread input and selling price increases, and capital spending continued to expand. Looking ahead, a growing proportion of firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months.
Activity Grows Modestly
After falling for three consecutive months, the headline business activity index was little changed in October at 15.2, pointing to ongoing modest growth in the region’s service sector. Thirty-nine percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, while 23 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index came in at -8.6, indicating that, on net, firms continued to view the business climate as worse than normal for this time of year. Widespread Price Increases Continue
The prices paid index rose two points to 80.3, while the prices received index was little changed at 36.4, with the two readings pointing to ongoing substantial increases in both input costs and selling prices. After reaching its highest level since the pandemic began, the capital spending index fell six points to 13.2, signaling ongoing modest increases in capital spending. The employment index rose to 21.3, pointing to a moderate increase in employment levels. At 50.8, the wages index was up three points, indicating another month of strong wage growth. Optimism Improves
A growing proportion of service firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months. After four consecutive monthly declines, the index for future business activity increased eleven points to 41.4. The index for future business climate rose to 26.0. Ongoing strong gains in employment and wages are expected in the months ahead, and prices are expected to continue to rise significantly. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651 |
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Historical Reports >>
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
