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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Activity in the region’s service sector held steady, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s January 2019 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell six points to zero, its lowest level since mid-2017. The business climate index was little changed, also coming in at around zero, indicating that on balance, firms regarded the business climate as normal. Employment levels rose modestly, and wage increases picked up slightly. The prices paid index, while still elevated, edged down three points to 51.5, and the prices received index was little changed at 17.0. Optimism waned, with the index for future business climate falling to its lowest level in nearly a decade.
Growth Slows to a Halt
Business activity was little changed in the region’s service sector in January. The headline business activity index fell for a fourth consecutive month, dropping six points to zero, its lowest level since July 2017. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, and 28 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index held at a level of around zero, signaling that, on balance, firms viewed the business climate as normal. Input Price Increases Ease Slightly
At 7.1, the employment index indicated that employment levels increased modestly. The wages index edged up three points to 37.1, suggesting that wage gains remained fairly widespread. The prices paid index fell three points, its third consecutive monthly decline, but remained elevated at 51.5. The prices received index held steady at 17.0. The capital spending index moved down six points to 10.8, suggesting that capital spending increased at a slower pace than last month. Optimism Continues to Droop
Firms remained fairly subdued in their optimism about the six-month outlook. The index for future business activity fell four points to 14.3, its lowest level in more than two years. The index for future business climate declined four points to -15.7, its lowest reading since 2009, suggesting that firms expect the business climate to be worse than normal in the months ahead. The index for future wages and the index for future prices paid both moved lower, and the index for planned capital spending fell eight points to 16.8. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651 |
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Historical Reports >>
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
