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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Growth in the region’s service sector moderated somewhat but was still fairly brisk, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2018 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index retreated seven points to 14.8, after reaching its highest level in more than a decade in June. The business climate index fell eight points to 13.3—still indicative of a fairly positive view of the business climate. The employment index slipped five points to 12.9, suggesting a modest slowing in hiring activity, and the wages index was little changed at a fairly elevated level. The prices paid index retreated from a multiyear high, edging down four points to 58.6, suggesting ongoing widespread input price increases. The prices received index edged up to 24.6. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook generally declined modestly, suggesting that firms have become somewhat less optimistic about future conditions than they had been earlier this year.
Activity Continues to Grow at a Solid Clip
Growth in business activity in the region’s service sector slowed slightly but was still fairly brisk. After reaching its highest level since 2007 in June, the headline business activity index retreated seven points to 14.8 in July—still a fairly high level consistent with moderate growth. Just under 40 percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, while 25 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index slipped eight points to 13.3 in July, remaining positive for an eighth consecutive month, signaling that, on balance, firms continued to view the business climate as better than normal. Job Growth Slows; Input Price Pressures Persist
The employment index declined five points to 12.9 in July, indicating a slight slowing in the pace of job growth. The wages index edged down two points but remained quite elevated at 39.1, reflecting ongoing wage growth. The prices paid index, which had climbed to a multi-year high in June, edged back four points to 58.6 in July, indicating that input prices continued to rise at a fairly brisk pace. The prices received index rose marginally to 24.6, a level consistent with a moderate escalation in selling prices. The capital spending index was virtually unchanged at 12.4, suggesting that capital spending continued to increase moderately. Firms Slightly Less Optimistic
Firms became slightly less optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business activity slipped four points to 32.4, and the index for future business climate fell seven points to 13.9. Indexes for future wages and prices paid were down slightly but still at high levels, while the index for planned capital spending slipped to its lowest level this year, suggesting a modest reduction in capital spending plans. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651 |
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Historical Reports >>
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
