A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.

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Note: Survey responses were collected between May 4 and May 11. Download the full report |
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Business activity continued to decline in the region's service sector in May, though the pace of contraction slowed considerably, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey's headline business activity index rose eight points to -5.8, its highest level in more than a year. The business climate index rose slightly but remained well below zero at -46.9, suggesting the business climate remained much worse than normal. Employment inched higher, and wage growth slowed notably. Supply availability continued to worsen. Input price increases remained steep, and selling price increases remained elevated. Looking ahead, firms became somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for the next six months.
The Pace of Contraction Slows
Business activity continued to decline in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the May survey, but it was the smallest monthly decline in over a year. The headline business activity index rose eight points to -5.8 — its highest level since January 2025. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 34 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index moved up two points but remained well below zero at -46.9, with 56 percent of respondents reporting an unfavorable business climate. Employment Edges Higher
The employment index rose four points to 1.9, turning positive for the first time since last summer and suggesting employment levels inched slightly higher. The wages index fell eleven points to 26.5, indicating that wage growth slowed significantly. The prices paid index was little changed at 73.4, signaling that input prices continued to increase sharply. The prices received index held steady at 30.7, a sign that selling price increases remained elevated. The supply availability index rose four points but remained negative at -15.6, indicating that supply availability continued to worsen. Firms Somewhat More Optimistic
The index for future business activity rose seven points to 10.2, suggesting that firms became more optimistic about the outlook but still expect only modest growth in activity over the next six months. Employment is expected to rise slightly in the months ahead, and wage growth is expected to slow. Firms' expectations for future price increases remained elevated. Capital spending plans remained subdued. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables csv Data definitions
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
