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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between February 2 and February 9. Download the full report  Read this month's Supplemental Survey Report on Minimum wage effects and supply disruptions |
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Activity in the region’s service sector continued to decline significantly, though at a slower pace than last month, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February 2021 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index rose ten points to -21.5. The business climate index was little changed at -65.0, indicating that the vast majority of firms continued to view the business climate as worse than normal. Employment levels continued to decline, and wage increases continued to accelerate. Both input prices and selling prices increased at a slightly faster pace than in January. Capital spending fell for an eleventh consecutive month, though capital spending plans over the next six months turned positive for the first time since the pandemic began. Looking ahead, optimism among respondents rose to its highest level in months.
Activity Continues to Fall Off
Business activity in the region’s service sector declined for a twelfth consecutive month. The headline business activity index rose ten points, but remained well below zero at -21.5. Twenty percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, while 41 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index held steady at -65.0, with around three-quarters of respondents viewing the business climate as worse than normal. Price Increases Pick Up
The employment index came in at -14.5, indicating that employment levels continued to decline modestly. The wages index continued to march upward, rising seven points to 26.6, its highest level since the onset of the pandemic. Like last month, price increases picked up. The prices paid index rose four points to 42.5, and the prices received index rose three points to 9.9. The capital spending index held below zero at -10.5, suggesting ongoing declines in capital spending. Majority of Firms Optimistic about Future Conditions
The index for future business activity rose eleven points to 32.5, and the future business climate index rose to 34.4, both reaching their highest level since the pandemic began. Just over 50 percent of firms expect activity to expand and conditions to be better than normal in six months. Employment levels, wages, and prices are all expected to rise, and firms expect to increase capital spending in the months ahead. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651 |
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Historical Reports >>
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
