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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index came in at 2.9, roughly in line with its level in October. New orders increased slightly, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter and inventories declined. Employment continued to expand, and the average workweek was slightly longer. Input price increases continued to slow, while selling prices increased modestly. Optimism about the six-month outlook remained subdued, while capital spending plans picked up markedly.
Growth Remains Sluggish
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity was little changed from last month. The general business conditions index was sluggish for the sixth consecutive month, coming in at 2.9 in November. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 26 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index edged up two points to 5.5, pointing to a small increase in orders. The shipments index fell four points to 8.8, a level indicating that shipments grew more modestly than last month. The unfilled orders index remained negative for a sixth consecutive month, indicating that unfilled orders continued to decline. Delivery times shortened and inventories were modestly lower.
Ongoing Employment Growth
The index for number of employees edged up to 10.4, indicating that employment expanded for the third consecutive month. The average workweek index came in at 2.3, indicating a slightly longer workweek. Input price increases continued to decelerate, with the prices paid index moving down three points to 20.5. The prices received index held steady at 6.2.
Optimism Restrained
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future conditions remained subdued. The index for future business conditions came in at 19.4. The index for future unfilled orders turned positive for the first time in several months, and inventories were expected to increase. The capital expenditures index jumped ten points to 19.2, and the technology spending index increased to 15.1.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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