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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between April 2 and April 9.
Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 26.3, a multi-year high. New orders and shipments grew at a solid clip, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times were the longest on record, and inventories were notably higher. Employment levels and the average workweek both expanded modestly. Input prices rose at the fastest pace since 2008, and selling prices climbed at a record-setting pace. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, expecting significant increases in employment and prices.
Robust Growth
Manufacturing activity grew at a sturdy pace in New York State in April. The general business conditions index rose nine points to 26.3, its highest level since well before the pandemic began. Thirty-nine percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 12 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index shot up eighteen points to 26.9 and the shipments index climbed to 25.0, pointing to strong gains in orders and shipments. Unfilled orders were notably higher. The delivery times index surged seventeen points to 28.1, breaking the previous record by twelve points, pointing to significantly longer delivery times. Inventories moved higher.
Selling Prices Rise at a Record-Setting Pace
The index for number of employees increased five points to 13.9, and the average workweek index edged up to 12.7, indicating ongoing gains in employment and hours worked. The prices paid index rose ten points to 74.7, its highest level since 2008, pointing to sharp input price increases. The prices received index rose eleven points to 34.9, a record high, indicating that selling prices increased at the fastest pace in more than twenty years.
Further Price Increases and Strong Employment Growth Expected
The index for future business conditions rose three points to 39.8, suggesting that firms remained optimistic about future conditions. The indexes for future new orders and shipments both came in above 40. The indexes for future prices paid and future prices received continued to march upward. The index for future employment climbed to a record high, with close to half of firms expecting to increase employment in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index rose to 31.5, and the technology spending index came in at 21.9.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Tools
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