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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between August 2 and August 9.
Business activity edged slightly lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -4.7. New orders declined modestly, while shipments held steady. Delivery times continued to shorten, and supply availability was little changed. Inventories moved lower for a second consecutive month. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment continuing to contract and the average workweek dropping sharply. Input prices increased at a slightly slower pace than last month, while selling price increases remained steady and small. Firms were fairly optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead.
Manufacturing activity continued to decline in New York State, according to the August survey. The general business conditions index came in at -4.7. The new orders index fell seven points to -7.9, pointing to a decline in orders, while the shipments index fell to around zero, suggesting shipments were flat. Unfilled orders continued to decrease. The inventories index fell to -10.6, indicating that inventories moved lower. The delivery times index remained below zero at -3.2, suggesting that delivery times continued to shorten, while the supply availability index came in at -2.1, a sign that supply availability was slightly lower.
The index for number of employees was little changed at -6.7, pointing to another month of employment reductions, while the average workweek index dropped eighteen points to -17.8, signaling a sharp decline in hours worked. The prices paid index edged down three points to 23.4, indicating a slight moderation in input price increases, while the prices received index edged up two points but remained low at 8.5, indicating that selling price increases were still modest.
Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. The index for future business conditions came in at 22.9, with 45 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. The outlook for employment growth picked up, and capital spending plans, while sluggish, firmed somewhat compared to last month.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
2024
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15 report
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15 report
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15 report
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
