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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose two points to 21.1, pointing to a slightly faster pace of growth than in September. New orders and shipments both picked up noticeably. Delivery times continued to lengthen, while inventories held steady. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment levels and no change in hours worked. Price indexes edged down but remained elevated, suggesting ongoing significant increases in both input prices and selling prices. Looking ahead, firms generally remained optimistic about the six-month outlook.
Activity Continues to Expand
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity continued to expand in October. The general business conditions index moved up two points to 21.1, suggesting that the pace of growth picked up slightly this month. Roughly 36 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while only 15 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index and the shipments index both showed strong growth, with the first index moving up six points to 22.5 and the second climbing twelve points to 26.3. Unfilled orders decreased, inventories held steady, and delivery times continued to lengthen.
Employment Continues to Increase
The index for number of employees came in at 9.0 and the average workweek index fell to 0.2, indicating a modest increase in employment levels and no change in the length of the workweek. Price increases slowed somewhat but remained elevated. The prices paid index fell four points to 42.0, and the prices received index edged down to 14.3.
Firms Remain Optimistic
Firms remained moderately optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business conditions was little changed at 29.0, and the indexes for future new orders and shipments pointed to continued solid growth. Employment was expected to increase in the months ahead, and the indexes for future prices remained elevated. The capital expenditures index came in at 16.0, and the technology spending index was 9.2.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Historical Reports ››
Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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