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& EducationThe New York Fed engages with individuals, households and businesses in the Second District and maintains an active dialogue in the region. The Bank gathers and shares regional economic intelligence to inform our community and policy makers, and promotes sound financial and economic decisions through community development and education programs.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Beginning this month, the Supplemental Survey Report will be published every other month. The next report will be released in August.
Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell ten points to 9.8. The new orders index moved down to 13.3, and the shipments index fell to 10.5, suggesting that orders and shipments continued to grow, though at a somewhat slower pace than in June. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventory levels were fairly steady. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and no change in hours worked. Input prices and selling prices rose at about the same pace as last month. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that firms remained positive about future conditions, though they were less optimistic than in June.
Growth Continues, Though Not Quite as Strongly
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity continued to expand in July. After reaching its highest level in more than two years last month, the general business conditions index retreated ten points to 9.8, indicating that activity grew at a slower rate than in June. Thirty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 20 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index edged down five points, but at 13.3, it still showed that orders increased at a fairly solid clip. The shipments index fell twelve points to 10.5, suggesting that shipments grew, but at a slower pace than last month. The unfilled orders index dropped below zero. The delivery time index was little changed at 4.7, pointing to somewhat longer deliver times, and the inventories index fell to 2.4.
Pace of Price Increases Little Changed
The index for number of employees fell for a third consecutive month, though it remained positive at 3.9—a sign that employment was growing, but not as rapidly as in earlier months. The average workweek index fell to zero, indicating that hours worked remained the same. The prices paid index was little changed at 21.3, as was the prices received index at 11.0, suggesting that the pace of price increases held steady.
Optimism Declines Somewhat
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook remained favorable, though firms were somewhat less optimistic about future conditions than in June. The index for future business conditions fell seven points to 34.9, and the index for future new orders fell nine points to 33.4. Employment was expected to increase modestly, though the average workweek was expected to decline slightly. The capital expenditures index slipped to 15.0, and the technology spending index was 11.8.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
2017
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15 report
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Historical Reports ››
Charts of diffusion indexes (past 12 months)
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Tools
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