The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between July 3 and July 11.
Business activity held steady in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell six points to 1.1. New orders inched up and shipments expanded. Delivery times shortened and inventories continued to decline. Employment levels edged higher, though the average workweek was little changed. Input and selling price increases continued to moderate. Planned increases in capital spending remained weak. Looking ahead, while firms expect conditions to improve, optimism remained muted.
Manufacturing activity was little changed in New York State, according to the July survey. The general business conditions index fell six points to 1.1. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while twenty-seven percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index was little changed at 3.3, indicating that orders edged higher, and the shipments index fell nine points to 13.4, pointing to an increase in shipments, though at a slower pace than last month. At -8.8, the unfilled orders index remained negative for a third straight month, a sign that unfilled orders continued to decline. The inventories index also remained negative at -10.8, indicating that inventories moved lower. The delivery times index came in at -6.9, suggesting that delivery times shortened.
The index for number of employees climbed into positive territory for the first time since January and, at 4.7, pointed to a small increase in employment. The average workweek index rose to 0.3, indicating little change in hours worked. Price increases continued to moderate: the prices paid index fell five points to 16.7, and the prices received index fell five points to 3.9. The prices paid index has now fallen nearly fifty points over the past year, and the prices received index has fallen a cumulative twenty-seven points.
The index for future business conditions edged down to 14.3, indicating that while conditions are expected to improve, optimism remained subdued. New orders and shipments are expected to increase modestly, delivery times are expected to continue to shorten, and employment is expected to expand modestly. The capital spending index fell five points to 2.9, suggesting that capital spending plans remained soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes ![]()
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
