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Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed four points to 20.1, indicating a faster pace of growth than in April. The new orders index rose seven points to 16.0, and the shipments index was little changed at 19.1, suggesting ongoing growth in orders and shipments. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories moved higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and longer workweeks. The prices paid index rose to its highest level in several years, indicating significant input price increases, and the prices received index remained elevated. Looking ahead, firms were somewhat more optimistic about the six-month outlook than they were in April, though less so than earlier this year.
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Business Activity Grows at a Solid Clip
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity expanded at a faster pace than in April. The general business conditions index rose four points to 20.1. Forty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 20 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose seven points to 16.0 and the shipments index was little changed at 19.1, indicating that orders and shipments again grew strongly. Unfilled orders increased, and inventories moved higher. The delivery time index was close to last month’s level at 13.7, a sign that delivery times continued to lengthen.
Input Price Increases Pick Up
The index for number of employees edged up three points to 8.7, while the average workweek index fell to 11.1, readings pointing to a modest increase in employment and hours worked. Price increases remained elevated. The prices paid index moved up seven points to 54.0, its highest level since 2011, indicating a pickup in input price increases. The prices received index rose two points to 23.0, suggesting ongoing moderate selling price increases.
Outlook Improves, but Optimism Remains Subdued
Optimism about the six-month outlook increased, but fell short of levels enjoyed in recent months. The index for future business conditions, which plunged to 18.3 in April after remaining above 40 for most of the past year and a half, regained thirteen points to reach 31.1 in May. Employment was expected to increase in the months ahead, and the indexes for future prices remained elevated. The capital expenditures index moved up four points to 29.5, and the technology spending index rose to 23.0.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Not seasonally adjusted:
csvAll Data
Not seasonally adjusted:
csvSeasonal Factors
Participants from across the state in
a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and
report the change in a variety of indicators from the
previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction
of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002
is the first report, although survey data date back
to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to
the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives
in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About
100 responses are received. Most are completed by the
tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from
across the New York State. No one industry dominates
the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey.
Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage
components of the diffusion indexes are each tested
for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly
if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected,
the component is left unadjusted. The "no change"
component contains the residual, computed by subtracting
the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal
factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation.
The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal
form (referred to as "p"), is transformed
using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following
equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions 1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
