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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Supplemental Survey Report on the outlook for the second half of 2018 will be released June 18 at 8:30 a.m.
Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed five points to 25.0, indicating a faster pace of growth than in May. Both the new orders index and the shipments index showed ongoing solid growth, with the former rising five points to 21.3 and the latter moving up four points to 23.5. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories edged higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a substantial increase in employment and longer workweeks. The prices paid index remained close to last month’s multiyear high, indicating continued significant input price increases, and the prices received index remained elevated. Looking ahead, firms were more optimistic about the six-month outlook than they were last month.
Business Activity Continues to Expand
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity expanded at a faster pace than in May. The general business conditions index rose five points to 25.0, its highest level in several months. Thirty-eight percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 13 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index advanced five points to 21.3 and the shipments index rose four points to 23.5—readings that reflected strong growth. Unfilled orders increased, inventories edged higher, and delivery times continued to lengthen.
Hiring Picks Up
The index for number of employees climbed ten points to 19.0, its highest level thus far in 2018, pointing to a pickup in employment levels. The average workweek index was little changed at 12.0, indicating an increase in hours worked. Price increases remained elevated. The prices paid index was little changed from last month’s multiyear high, and the prices received index held steady at 23.3, suggesting ongoing moderate selling price increases.
Firms More Optimistic
After slipping in April, optimism about the six-month outlook increased for a second consecutive month. The index for future business conditions climbed eight points to 38.9. Employment was expected to increase in the months ahead, and the indexes for future prices remained elevated. The capital expenditures index edged down two points to 27.1, and the technology spending index fell six points to 17.1.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Historical Reports ››
Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Tools
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