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& EducationThe New York Fed engages with individuals, households and businesses in the Second District and maintains an active dialogue in the region. The Bank gathers and shares regional economic intelligence to inform our community and policy makers, and promotes sound financial and economic decisions through community development and education programs.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Supplemental Survey Report on the selling prices will be released September 16 at 8:30 a.m.
Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held below zero, and was little changed at -2.0. The new orders index fell eight points to -7.5 and the shipments index fell eighteen points to -9.4—developments that pointed to a marked decline in both orders and shipments. Labor market conditions weakened, with both employment levels and the average workweek reported as lower. Price indexes remained close to last month’s levels, and indicated ongoing moderate input price increases coupled with a continued slight increase in selling prices. Indexes for the six-month outlook suggested that firms generally expect conditions to improve in the months ahead.
Business Conditions Remain Weak
Echoing their August assessment, manufacturing firms in New York State reported a slight decline in business activity in September. The general business conditions index inched up two points, but remained negative at -2.0. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 24 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index fell eight points to -7.5, indicating that orders dropped, and the shipments index tumbled eighteen points to -9.4, pointing to a pronounced reduction in shipments. The unfilled orders index slipped to -11.6. The delivery time index fell to -6.3, signaling shorter delivery times. The inventories index moved down eight points to -12.5, indicating that inventory levels declined at a faster pace than in August.
Labor Market Deteriorates
The employment index fell thirteen points to -14.3, indicating that employment levels contracted. The average workweek index posted a similar decline, falling fourteen points to -11.6—a sign of retrenchment in hours worked. Both of these indexes reached their lowest levels of 2016. The prices paid index was little changed at 17.0, indicating that input prices continued to rise at a moderate pace, and the prices received index held steady at 1.8, signaling that selling prices edged slightly higher.
Outlook Remains Optimistic
Indexes for the six-month outlook suggested that respondents were more optimistic about future conditions than they were last month. The index for future business conditions climbed eleven points to 34.5. The index for future new orders advanced to a similar level, while the index for future shipments, though positive, declined. The index for future employment moved up into positive territory, suggesting that firms expected to expand employment in the months ahead. Indexes for future prices rose considerably, suggesting that firms expected both input prices and selling prices to increase more significantly over the next six months. The capital expenditures and technology spending indexes both climbed to 10.7.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
2016
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JAN
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FEB
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MAR
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APR
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15 report
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16 report
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15 report
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15 report
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MAY
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JUN
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JUL
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AUG
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16 report
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15 report
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15 report
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15 report
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SEP
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OCT
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NOV
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DEC
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15 report
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17
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15
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15
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Charts of diffusion indexes (past 12 months)
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
All Data
Seasonal Factors
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Tools
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