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The monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey tracks the sentiment of New York State manufacturing executives regarding business conditions.
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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between March 2 and March 9.
Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6. New orders dropped significantly, and shipments declined modestly. Delivery times shortened for a second consecutive month, suggesting supply availability improved, and inventories were steady. Both employment and hours worked declined for a second consecutive month. Input and selling price increases slowed somewhat. Looking ahead, businesses expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months.
Manufacturing activity continued to decline in New York State, according to the March survey. The general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6, continuing the see-saw pattern of ups and downs within negative territory seen in recent months. Twenty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and forty-five percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index fell fourteen points to -21.7, indicating that orders declined substantially, and the shipments index fell fourteen points to -13.4, pointing to a decline in shipments. The unfilled orders index came in at -6.7, a sign that unfilled orders continued to decline. At -7.6, the delivery times index was negative for a second consecutive month, indicating that delivery times shortened. The inventories index moved down eight points to -1.9, indicating that inventory levels held steady.
The index for number of employees fell four points to -10.1, its second consecutive negative reading, indicating that employment levels continued to decline. The average workweek index fell six points to -18.5, its lowest level since early in the pandemic, indicating that hours worked shrank for a fourth consecutive month. Input prices and selling prices increased at a somewhat slower pace than last month: the prices paid index fell three points to 41.9, and the prices received index moved down six points to 22.9.
The index for future business conditions fell twelve points to 2.9, suggesting that firms do not expect activity to improve much over the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase modestly, and employment is expected to be somewhat higher. The index for future prices paid fell a steep eighteen points, suggesting that, looking ahead, firms expect slower input price increases than they were anticipating last month. The capital spending index and technology spending index both fell to 13.3.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
