The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between May 2 and May 9.
Download the full report
Read this month's Supplemental Survey Report to be released on May 17 at 8:30 a.m. This month's topic: Expected Selling Prices and Overall Inflation.
After growing strongly last month, business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index dropped thirty-six points to -11.6. New orders declined, and shipments fell at the fastest pace since early in the pandemic. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories expanded. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and the average workweek. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes moved lower, but were still elevated. Looking ahead, optimism about the six-month outlook remained subdued.
After growing significantly last month, manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the May survey. The general business conditions index retreated thirty-six points to -11.6, its second negative reading in the past three months. Twenty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while thirty-two percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index fell thirty-four points to -8.8, and the shipments index plunged fifty points to -15.4, marking a sharp reversal for the two measures, both of which increased last month. The unfilled orders index fell to 2.6. The delivery times index held steady at 20.2, pointing to continued lengthening in delivery times, and inventories increased.
The index for number of employees increased seven points to 14.0, and the average workweek index held steady at 11.9, indicating a modest increase in employment levels and the average workweek. After reaching a record high last month, the prices paid index fell thirteen points to a still elevated 73.7, and the prices received index edged down to 45.6, signaling ongoing substantial increases in both input prices and selling prices, though at a slower pace than last month.
As in April, firms expressed less optimism about the six-month outlook than they did earlier this year. The index for future business conditions was little changed at 18.0. Increases in prices and employment are expected to continue in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index fell to its lowest level in several months.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
JAN
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FEB
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MAR
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APR
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18 report
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15 report
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15 report
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15 report
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MAY
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JUL
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AUG
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16 report
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15
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15
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15
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DEC
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15
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17
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15
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15
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651