Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Supplemental Survey Report on hiring, retaining and compensation of workers will be released May 17 at 8:30 a.m.

Download the full report  PDF

The May 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index turned negative, falling nineteen points to -9.0. The new orders and shipments indexes also fell below zero, pointing to a decline in both orders and shipments. Survey results indicated that inventory levels were lower and delivery times shorter. The prices paid index edged down to 16.7—a sign that moderate input price increases were continuing—and the prices received index fell below zero, suggesting a small drop in selling prices. Employment levels appeared to be little changed, while the average workweek index pointed to a decline in hours worked. The six-month outlook was somewhat less optimistic than last month, and the capital spending index plummeted to 3.1, its lowest reading in more than two years.

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Released at 8:30 a.m.


2016
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
15 report PDF
16 report PDF
15 report PDF
MAY
JUN
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AUG
15
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15
SEP
OCT
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DEC
15
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15
Historical Reports ››
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Not seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Not seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: txt | csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 15 kb

Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.

For demonstration only:

Sample surveyPDF 1 page / 44 kb

Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.

The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.

Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision to reflect new seasonal factors.

Seasonal Adjustment

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.

The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.

Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:

X = log(p/(1-p))

The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:

adjX = X - seasonal factor

The result is then transformed using the following equation:

SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))

To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.



Data definitionsPDF 1 page / 15 kb

Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651

Tools
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