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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between May 3 and May 10.
Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 24.3. New orders and shipments continued to expand strongly, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times lengthened significantly, and inventories moved somewhat higher. Employment levels grew modestly, and the average workweek increased. Both input prices and selling prices rose at a record-setting pace. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, and expected significant increases in employment and prices.
As occurred last month, manufacturing activity grew at a sturdy pace in New York State in May. The general business conditions index edged down two points to 24.3. Thirty-seven percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 13 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index moved up two points to 28.9, a multi-year high, and the shipments index climbed five points to 29.7, pointing to another month of strong gains in orders and shipments. Unfilled orders increased. The delivery times index moved down five points, but at 23.6, it held near its record high from last month, pointing to significantly longer delivery times. Inventories moved somewhat higher.
The index for number of employees held steady at 13.6, while the average workweek index climbed six points to 18.7, indicating ongoing gains in employment and hours worked. Both price indexes reached record highs: the prices paid index rose nine points to 83.5, and the prices received index rose two points to 37.1.
The index for future business conditions was little changed at 36.6, suggesting that firms remained optimistic about future conditions. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also held at similar levels. The indexes for future prices paid and future prices received remained elevated. Firms on net expect to increase employment significantly in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index came in at 25.7, and the technology spending index was 22.1.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
