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The monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey tracks the sentiment of New York State manufacturing executives regarding business conditions.
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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between June 2 and June 9.
Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose ten points to -1.2. New orders and shipments edged slightly higher, and unfilled orders declined for the first time in over a year. Delivery times lengthened at a slower pace than in recent months, and inventories grew significantly. Labor market indicators pointed to a solid increase in employment and a longer average workweek. The prices paid index moved higher, and the prices received index edged lower, but both remained elevated. Looking ahead, optimism about the six-month outlook remained muted.
After declining last month, manufacturing activity held steady in New York State, according to the June survey. The general business conditions index climbed ten points to -1.2. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and twenty-nine percent reported that conditions had worsened. After plunging below zero last month, the new orders and shipments indexes climbed into positive territory, pointing to a small increase in both areas. The unfilled orders index fell to -4.3, its first negative reading in over a year, indicating that unfilled orders shrank. The delivery times index fell six points to 14.5, suggesting that delivery times lengthened, though at the slowest pace in over a year. The inventories index rose nine points to 17.1, indicating that inventories expanded.
The index for number of employees increased five points to 19.0, pointing to a solid increase in employment, and the average workweek index came in at 6.4, indicating a small increase in hours worked. The prices paid index rose five points to 78.6, several points below its recent record high, and the prices received index edged down to a still elevated 43.6, signaling ongoing substantial increases in both input prices and selling prices.
Optimism about future conditions was subdued for a third consecutive month. The index for future business conditions fell four points to 14.0. Delivery times are expected to decline over the next six months, as are unfilled orders, while increases in prices and employment are expected to continue in the months ahead. Capital spending and technology spending plans remained firm.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
