Note: Data have undergone an annual benchmark revision. Historical data have been revised to reflect new seasonal factors.
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Business activity grew to a small degree in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8. New orders and shipments edged higher. Delivery times were somewhat shorter, and inventories held steady. Employment continued to expand, though the average workweek was unchanged. Both input prices and selling prices increased at a significantly faster pace than in December. Optimism about the six-month outlook remained subdued, and capital spending plans remained firm.
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Activity Expands Modestly
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity edged somewhat higher. The general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 23 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index moved up five points to 6.6, indicating that orders were higher, and at 8.6, the shipments index pointed to a modest increase in shipments. The unfilled orders index rose eleven points, but remained negative at -2.7, indicating that unfilled orders continued to decline. Delivery times shortened, and inventories held steady.
Price Increases Pick Up Markedly
The index for number of employees held steady at 9.0, indicating that employment expanded for the fifth consecutive month. The average workweek index came in at 1.3, a sign that the average workweek was essentially unchanged. Price increases picked up noticeably. After falling to a multi-year low last month, the prices paid index rose sixteen points to 31.5, and the prices received index climbed ten points to 14.4.
Optimism Remains Subdued
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future conditions remained restrained. The index for future business conditions edged down three points to 23.6. The index for future shipments climbed five points to 32.7, indicating that firms expect shipments to increase in the months ahead, and employment and hours worked are expected to grow modestly. The capital expenditures index held steady at 25.3, and the technology spending index moved down five points to 22.6.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Not seasonally adjusted:
csvAll Data
Not seasonally adjusted:
csvSeasonal Factors
Participants from across the state in
a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and
report the change in a variety of indicators from the
previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction
of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002
is the first report, although survey data date back
to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to
the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives
in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About
100 responses are received. Most are completed by the
tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from
across the New York State. No one industry dominates
the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey.
Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage
components of the diffusion indexes are each tested
for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly
if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected,
the component is left unadjusted. The "no change"
component contains the residual, computed by subtracting
the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal
factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation.
The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal
form (referred to as "p"), is transformed
using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following
equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions 1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
