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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Business activity remained robust in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed three points to 25.6. New orders and shipments grew strongly, and firms reported an increase in unfilled orders. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories held steady. Labor market indicators pointed to solid gains in employment and longer workweeks. Price indexes were little changed and remained elevated, indicating ongoing significant price increases. Looking ahead, firms stepped up their capital spending plans and were fairly optimistic about the six-month outlook.
Growth Remains Strong
Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity expanded strongly in August. The general business conditions index rose three points to 25.6. Forty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 16 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index was little changed at 17.1, and the shipments index rose eleven points to 25.7—readings that reflected strong growth. Unfilled orders increased, and inventories held steady. The delivery time index rose four points to 10.4, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen.
Price Indexes Remain Elevated
The index for number of employees edged lower, but at 13.1, pointed to a pickup in employment levels. The average workweek index was 8.9, indicating a modest increase in hours worked. Price increases remained elevated. The prices paid index inched up to 45.2, and the prices received index came in at 20.0.
Firms Fairly Optimistic
Firms remained moderately optimistic about the six-month outlook, though less so than earlier this year. The index for future business conditions climbed four points to 34.8. The indexes for future unfilled orders and future delivery times both turned negative, suggesting that businesses expect fewer unfilled orders and shorter delivery times. Employment was expected to increase in the months ahead, and the indexes for future prices remained elevated. The capital expenditures index moved up ten points to 26.7, and the technology spending index rose three points to 12.6.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Released at 8:30 a.m.
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Historical Reports ››
Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
Tools
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