Authors: Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım
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Staff Reports
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
Number 1080
November 2023 Revised July 2024
November 2023 Revised July 2024
JEL classification: E2, E3, E6, F1, F4
We employ a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the factors driving pandemic-era inflation. The model incorporates both sector-specific and aggregate shocks, which propagate through the global trade and production network and generate demand and supply imbalances, leading to inflation and spillovers. The baseline quantitative exercise matches changes in aggregate and sectoral prices and wages for a sample of countries including the United States, Euro Area, China, and Russia. Our findings indicate that supply-chain bottlenecks ignited inflation in 2020, followed by a surge in prices driven by aggregate demand shocks from 2021 through 2022, exacerbated by rising energy prices.
Author Disclosure Statement(s)
Julian di Giovanni
Julian di Giovanni declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
I have nothing to disclose.
Alvero Silva
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at hpps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Muhammed Yildirim
The author declares that (s)he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Julian di Giovanni declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
I have nothing to disclose.
Alvero Silva
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at hpps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Muhammed Yildirim
The author declares that (s)he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Suggested Citation:
di Giovanni, Julian, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım. 2023. “Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1080, November. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1080
di Giovanni, Julian, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım. 2023. “Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1080, November. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1080
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