Tracking Productivity in Real Time - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Museum & Visits Regional Economy Data & Statistics Careers Blog Press Center

About the New York Fed
- About the New York Fed
- What We Do
- Who We Are
  - Bank Leadership
- Communities We Serve
- Governance
- More About Us
- At the New York Fed, our mission is to make the U.S. economy stronger and the financial system more stable for all segments of society. We do this by executing monetary policy, providing financial services, supervising banks and conducting research and providing expertise on issues that impact the nation and communities we serve.
  
  The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
  
  Do you have a request for information and records? Learn how to submit it.
  
  Learn about the history of the New York Fed and central banking in the United States through articles, speeches, photos and video.
Markets & Policy Implementation

Economic Research
- Economic Research
- U.S. Economy
  - Consumer Expectations & Behavior
  - Growth & Inflation
  - Labor Market
  - Financial Stability
  - Banking
- REGIONAL ECONOMY
- RESEARCHERS
  - PUBLICATIONS
  - RESEARCH CENTERS
  - CALENDAR

Financial Institution Supervision
- Financial Institution Supervision
- Supervision & Regulation
  - Circulars
  - Regulations
- Reporting Forms & Instructions
  - Reporting Forms
  - Correspondence
- Bank Applications
- Consumer Protection
  - Community Reinvestment Act Exams
  - Frauds and Scams
- As part of our core mission, we supervise and regulate financial institutions in the Second District. Our primary objective is to maintain a safe and competitive U.S. and global banking system.
  
  The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
  
  Need to file a report with the New York Fed? Here are all of the forms, instructions and other information related to regulatory and statistical reporting in one spot.
  
  The New York Fed works to protect consumers as well as provides information and resources on how to avoid and report specific scams.
Financial Services & Infrastructure
- Financial Services & Infrastructure
- Financial Services & Operations
- Financial Market Infrastructure & Reform
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York works to promote sound and well-functioning financial systems and markets through its provision of industry and payment services, advancement of infrastructure reform in key markets and training and educational support to international institutions.
  
  The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
  
  The growing role of nonbank financial institutions, or NBFIs, in U.S. financial markets is a transformational trend with implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
  
  The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors.
Community Development
& Education

Current Issues in Economics and Finance

Tracking Productivity in Real Time

November 2006 Volume 12, Number 8

JEL classification: O4, O51, C32

Authors: James A. Kahn and Robert W. Rich

Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years—a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model’s success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.

PDF full article PDF

Press release

Kahn-Rich Productivity Model Update
Note: The trend productivity growth forecast is now maintained offsite. Look for it on Google Sites. Please direct any questions to Robert Rich at the Cleveland Fed.

tools