Nowcasting Report
Our model produces a “nowcast” of real GDP growth, incorporating a wide range of macroeconomic data as it becomes available.


 

Week Ending December 7, 2018: Highlights
  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.4% for both 2018:Q4 and 2019:Q1.
  • News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point and increased the nowcast for 2019:Q1 by 0.1 percentage point.
  • For 2018:Q4, negative surprises from lower than expected exports and imports data were only partially offset by positive surprises from the ISM manufacturing survey, while for 2019:Q1, the impact of positive surprises from the ISM manufacturing survey dominated.


Download a PDF version of the current report. 

PDF Archive

2018 Releases
Released weekly at 11:15 a.m.
December 7 
November 30 
November 23 
November 16 
November 9 
November 2 
October 26 
October 19 
October 12 
October 5 
September 28 
September 21 
September 14 
September 7 
August 31 
August 24 
August 17 
August 10 
August 3 
July 27 
July 20 
July 13 
July 6 
June 29 
June 22 
June 15 
June 8 
June 1 
May 25 
May 18 
May 11 
May 4 
April 27 
April 20 
April 13 
April 6 
March 30 
March 23 
March 16 
March 9 
March 2 
Februrary 23 
Februrary 16 
Februrary 9 
Februrary 2 
January 26 
January 19 
January 12 
January 5 

2017 Releases

December 29 
December 22 
December 15 
December 8 
December 1 
November 24 
November 17 
November 10 
November 3 
October 27 
October 20 
October 13 
October 6 
September 29 
September 22 
September 15 
September 8 
September 1 
August 25 
August 18 
August 11 
August 4 
July 28 
July 21 
July 14 
July 7 
June 30 
June 23 
June 16 
June 9 
June 2 
May 26 
May 19 
May 12 
May 5 
April 28 
April 21 
April 14 
April 7 
March 31 
March 24 
March 17 
March 10 
March 3 
February 24 
February 17 
February 10 
February 3 
January 20 
January 13 
January 6 

2016 Releases

December 30 
December 23 
December 16 
December 2 
November 25 
November 18 
November 4 
October 21 
October 14 
October 7 
September 30 
September 23
September 9
September 2
August 26
August 19
August 12
August 5
July 29
July 15
July 8
July 1
June 24
June 17
June 3
May 27
May 20
May 13
May 6
April 29
April 15
April 8

We publish the report on Fridays (except on federal holidays) at 11:15 a.m., using data available up to 10 a.m.

Related Reading
Learn how to obtain and use the MATLAB code for our nowcast in Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub, Liberty Street Economics, August 10, 2018.
Check out a Q&A with several of our macroeconomists in Hey, Economist! How Do You Forecast the Present?, Liberty Street Economics, June 16, 2017.
Read more about the 2016 launch in Just Released: Introducing the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, Liberty Street Economics, April 12, 2016.
How to cite this report:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Nowcasting Report,
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html.
read more

About the Nowcasting Report

The report tracks the evolution of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new data releases on the forecast. We update it each Friday (except on federal holidays) at 11:15 a.m., using data available up to 10 a.m.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

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Contact Us
If you have questions about the Nowcasting Report, submit them to research.publications@ny.frb.org.