Our model produces a “nowcast” of real GDP growth, incorporating a wide range of macroeconomic data as it becomes available.
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Nowcasting Report
Week Ending
August 27, 2021: Highlights
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.8% for 2021:Q3.
- News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2021:Q3 by 0.3 percentage point.
- A positive surprise from manufacturers’ shipments of durable goods data accounted for most of the increase.
We publish the Nowcasting Report on Fridays (except on federal holidays) at 11:15 a.m., using data available up to 10 a.m. As of Jan. 24, 2020, we ceased publishing a PDF version of the report.
Related Reading
Our Time Series Analysis Team presented Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data at the New York Fed’s Central Banking Seminar in October 2019.
Economists describe the addition of extended historical archives to the New York Fed’s Nowcasting Report in Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15, Liberty Street Economics, July 12, 2019.
This analysis shows why data delays resulting from the partial government shutdown didn’t affect the accuracy of the staff GDP nowcast for 2018:Q4 and 2019:Q1. See Monitoring Economic Conditions during a Government Shutdown, Liberty Street Economics, February 5, 2019.
Learn how to obtain and use the MATLAB code for our nowcast in Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub, Liberty Street Economics, August 10, 2018.
Check out a Q&A with several of our macroeconomists in Hey, Economist! How Do You Forecast the Present?, Liberty Street Economics, June 16, 2017.
Read more about the 2016 launch in Just Released: Introducing the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, Liberty Street Economics, April 12, 2016.
How to cite this report:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Nowcasting Report,
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html.
About the Nowcasting Report
The report tracks the evolution of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new data releases on the forecast. We update it each Friday (except on federal holidays) at 11:15 a.m., using data available up to 10 a.m.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.
Contact Us
If you have questions about the Nowcasting Report, submit them to research.publications@ny.frb.org.
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