Oil Price Dynamics Report

Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?
June 26, 2017: Highlights

Oil prices fell owing to decreasing demand and increasing supply.

  • A weakening in demand expectations together with a loosening in supply conditions led to a decrease in oil prices over the past week. In 2017:Q1, steadily expanding supply conditions triggered a decline in oil prices.
  • The 2017:Q1 developments largely offset the 2016:Q4 oil price increase driven by contracting supply and strengthening, albeit volatile, global demand.
  • Overall, since the end of 2014:Q2, both lower global demand expectations and looser supply have held oil prices down, though this trend seems to have reversed in 2016:Q2 and 2016:Q4.
Download the Oil Price Dynamics Report

For more information about the methodology, see “Is Cheaper Oil Good News or Bad News for the U.S. Economy?Liberty Street Economics, June 8, 2015.

We also updated our analysis in “Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic ActivityLiberty Street Economics, May 2, 2016.
2017 Releases
Released weekly on Mondays at 3 p.m. (Exceptions noted above.)

June 26
June 19
May 30
May 22
May 15
May 8
April 17
April 10
April 3
March 27
March 20
March 6
February 27
February 21
February 13
February 6
January 23
January 17
January 9
January 3

Our analysis of oil price movements does not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

About the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report
How oil price fluctuations affect the U.S. economy will depend on whether supply or demand factors are driving them. Our statistical model examines correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to determine which forces best explain price movements. We update it each Monday at 3 p.m. (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings). When federal holidays occur on a Monday, the report is delayed by twenty-four hours. Find detailed information about our methodology within the report.