Oil Price Dynamics Report
Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?


We will not be publishing our report on April 24 or May 1 since the dates fall during an FOMC blackout period. Reporting will resume on May 8.
April 17, 2017: Highlights
Oil prices rose slightly owing to decreasing supply.

  • A perceived tightening in supply drove oil prices up for the third consecutive week, although at a slower pace than in previous weeks. In 2017:Q1, steadily loosening supply conditions triggered a decline in oil prices.
  • The 2017:Q1 developments largely offset the 2016:Q4 oil price increase that was driven by contracting supply and strengthening, albeit volatile, global demand.
  • Overall, since the end of 2014:Q2, both lower global demand expectations and looser supply have held oil prices down, though this trend seems to have reversed in 2016:Q2 and 2016:Q4.
Download the Oil Price Dynamics Report 

For more information about the methodology, see “Is Cheaper Oil Good News or Bad News for the U.S. Economy?Liberty Street Economics, June 8, 2015.

We also updated our analysis in “Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity," Liberty Street Economics, May 2, 2016.
2017 Releases
Released weekly on Mondays at 3 p.m. (Exceptions noted above.)
April 10 
April 3 
March 27 
March 20 
March 6 
February 27 
February 21 
February 13 
February 6 
January 23 
January 17 
January 9 
January 3 
Our analysis of oil price movements does not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.


2016 Releases
December 27 
December 19 
December 5 
November 28 
November 21 
November 14 
November 7 
October 24 
October 17 
October 11 
October 3 
September 26 
September 12 
September 6 
August 29 
August 22 
August 15 
August 8 
August 1 
July 18 
July 11
July 5
June 27
June 20
June 6
May 31
May 23
May 16
May 9
May 2
Contact Us
If you have questions about the Oil Price Dynamics Report, submit them by email to research.publications@ny.frb.org.
About the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report

How oil price fluctuations affect the U.S. economy will depend on whether supply or demand factors are driving them. Our statistical model examines correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to determine which forces best explain price movements. We update it each Monday at 3 p.m. (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings). When federal holidays occur on a Monday, the report is delayed by twenty-four hours. Find detailed information about our methodology within the report.