Oil Price Dynamics Report
Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?


 

March 20, 2017: Highlights
After falling significantly last week, oil prices rebounded slightly owing to strengthening demand.

  • Despite loosening supply conditions, improved global demand expectations drove oil prices up during the week. The preceding week saw a large decline in oil prices, as the demand outlook deteriorated and perceived supply expanded. In 2016:Q4, oil prices increased on net as a consequence of steadily contracting supply and strengthening, albeit volatile, global demand.
  • These developments countered the modest decline in oil prices during 2016:Q3 caused by weakening global demand expectations and loosening supply conditions.
  • Overall, since the end of 2014:Q2, both lower global demand expectations and looser supply have held oil prices down, though this trend seems to have reversed in 2016:Q2 and 2016:Q4.
Download the Oil Price Dynamics Report 

For more information about the methodology, see “Is Cheaper Oil Good News or Bad News for the U.S. Economy?Liberty Street Economics, June 8, 2015.

We also updated our analysis in “Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity," Liberty Street Economics, May 2, 2016.
2017 Releases
Released weekly on Mondays at 3 p.m. (Exceptions noted above.)
March 6 
February 27 
February 21 
February 13 
February 6 
January 23 
January 17 
January 9 
January 3 
Our analysis of oil price movements does not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.



Archive

2016 Releases
December 27 
December 19 
December 5 
November 28 
November 21 
November 14 
November 7 
October 24 
October 17 
October 11 
October 3 
September 26 
September 12 
September 6 
August 29 
August 22 
August 15 
August 8 
August 1 
July 18 
July 11
July 5
June 27
June 20
June 6
May 31
May 23
May 16
May 9
May 2
Contact Us
If you have questions about the Oil Price Dynamics Report, submit them by email to research.publications@ny.frb.org.
About the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report

How oil price fluctuations affect the U.S. economy will depend on whether supply or demand factors are driving them. Our statistical model examines correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to determine which forces best explain price movements. We update it each Monday at 3 p.m. (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings). When federal holidays occur on a Monday, the report is delayed by twenty-four hours. Find detailed information about our methodology within the report.