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The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
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The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
The growing role of nonbank financial institutions, or NBFIs, in U.S. financial markets is a transformational trend with implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors.
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| November 1995 Number 9524 |
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Author: Jose A. Lopez The volatility forecast evaluations most meaningful to forecast users are those conducted under economically relevant loss functions. Although several such loss functions are proposed in the literature, their implied economic costs are of interest only to specific types of volatility forecast users. A forecast evaluation framework that incorporates a more general class of economic loss functions is proposed. A user's loss function specifies the three key elements of the evaluation framework: the economic events to be forecast, the criterion with which to evaluate these forecasts, and the subsets of the forecasts of particular interest. Volatility forecasts are transformed into probability forecasts of the specified events, and the probability forecasts are evaluated using statistical criteria, such as probability scoring rules, tailored to the user's interests. An empirical example using exchange rates illustrates the procedure and confirms that the choice of loss function directly affects the forecast evaluation results. |
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45 pages / 1,371 kb
