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Staff Reports

Drivers of Dollar Share in Foreign Exchange Reserves

Number 1087
March 2024

JEL classification: F3, F31, F33

Authors: Linda S. Goldberg and Oliver Zain Hannaoui

The share of U.S. dollar assets in the official foreign exchange reserve portfolios of central banks is sometimes taken as an indicator of dollar status. We show that the observed decline in the aggregate share of U.S. dollar assets does not stem from a systematic shift in currency preferences away from holding dollar assets. Instead, a small group of countries with large foreign exchange reserve balances drive the dollar share decline observed in aggregate statistics. This arises either due to countries conducting monetary policy vis-à-vis the euro or due to preference shifts away from dollars. Regression analysis shows that interest rate differentials between traditional and nontraditional reserve currencies can tilt portfolio composition, particularly in relation to the scale of investment tranches within overall central bank portfolios. Geopolitical distance from the United States and financial sanctions are associated with lower U.S. dollar shares, especially if the primary foreign currency liquidity needs of the central bank are already satisfied.

Full Article

Author Disclosure Statement(s)

Linda Goldberg
The author declares that (s)he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Oliver Zain Hannaoui
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Suggested Citation:
Goldberg, Linda S. and Oliver Hannaoui. 2024. “Drivers of Dollar Share in Foreign Exchange Reserves.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1087, March. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1087

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