Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Museum & Gold Tour Regional Economy Data & Statistics Careers Blog Press Center

About the New York Fed
- About the New York Fed
- What We Do
- Governance
- Diversity and Inclusion
- Advisory Groups
- Events
- Vendor Information
- Working within the Federal Reserve System, the New York Fed implements monetary policy, supervises and regulates financial institutions and helps maintain the nation's payment systems.
  
  Do you have a Freedom of Information request? Learn how to submit it.
  
  See the world's largest accumulation of gold as you learn about the New York Fed and Federal Reserve System on a free tour.
  
  The latest Annual Report chronicles the impact of Federal Reserve policies and includes data on the New York Fed's operations.
Markets & Policy Implementation

Economic Research
- Economic Research
- Data & Indicators
- Publications
- PEOPLE
- Liberty Street Economics Blog
- Our economists engage in scholarly research and policy-oriented analysis on a wide range of important issues.
  
  The Center for Microeconomic Data offers analysis and data exploring individual-level financial and nonfinancial economic conditions, expectations, and behavior in the United States.
  
  Our model produces a "nowcast" of GDP growth, incorporating a wide range of macroeconomic data as it becomes available.
  
  U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
Financial Institution Supervision
- Financial Institution Supervision
- Supervision & Regulation
  - Circulars
  - Regulations
- Reporting Forms & Instructions
  - Reporting Forms
  - Correspondence
- Bank Applications
- Consumer Protection
  - Community Reinvestment Act Exams
  - Frauds and Scams
- As part of our core mission, we supervise and regulate financial institutions in the Second District. Our primary objective is to maintain a safe and competitive U.S. and global banking system.
  
  The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
  
  Need to file a report with the New York Fed? Here are all of the forms, instructions and other information related to regulatory and statistical reporting in one spot.
  
  The New York Fed works to protect consumers as well as provides information and resources on how to avoid and report specific scams.
Financial Services & Infrastructure
- Financial Services & Infrastructure
- Financial Services & Operations
- Financial Market Infrastructure & Reform
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York works to promote sound and well-functioning financial systems and markets through its provision of industry and payment services, advancement of infrastructure reform in key markets and training and educational support to international institutions.
  
  The New York Fed provides a wide range of payment services for financial institutions and the U.S. government.
  
  The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors.
  
  The New York Fed has been working with tri-party repo market participants to make changes to improve the resiliency of the market to financial stress.
Outreach & Education
- Outreach & Education
- Community Development
- School & University Programs
  - High School
  - College and Graduate
- Museum & Learning Center
- Events
  - Upcoming Events
  - Past Events
- The New York Fed engages with individuals, households and businesses in the Second District and maintains an active dialogue in the region. The Bank gathers and shares regional economic intelligence to inform our community and policy makers, and promotes sound financial and economic decisions through community development and education programs.
  
  The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
  
  The College Fed Challenge is a team competition for undergraduates inspired by the working of the Federal Open Market Committee.
  
  The Community Credit interactive highlights credit conditions, including measures of credit inclusion and stress, at the national, state and county levels.

Staff Reports

Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates

Previous title: “Global Liquidity and Exchange Rates”

January 2009 Number 361
Revised December 2015

JEL classification: F30, F31, G12, G24

Authors: Tobias Adrian, Erkko Etula, and Hyun Song Shin

We present evidence that the growth of U.S.-dollar-denominated banking sector liabilities forecasts appreciations of the U.S. dollar, both in-sample and out-of-sample, against a large set of foreign currencies. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in a global banking model where exchange rates fluctuate as a function of banks’ balance sheet capacity. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that the U.S. dollar funding liquidity forecasts exchange rates because of its association with time-varying risk premia. Our empirical evidence shows that this channel is separate from the more familiar “carry trade” channel. Although the financial crisis of 2007-09 induced a structural shift in our forecasting variables, when we control for this shift, the forecasting relationship is preserved.

Available only in PDF PDF

37 pages / 779 kb

tools