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The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
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| June 1998 Number 41 |
| JEL classification: E32, C22 |
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Authors: Margaret M. McConnell and Gabriel Perez Quiros We document a structural break in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 1984, and provide evidence that this break emanates from a reduction in the volatility of durable goods production. We find no evidence of increased stability in the nondurables, services or structures sectors of the economy. In addition, no other G7 country experienced a contemporaneous reduction in output volatility. Finally, we show that the reduction in durables volatility corresponds to a decline in the share of durable goods accounted for by inventories. |
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For a published version of this report, see Margaret M. McConnell and Gabriel Perez Quiros, "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980's?" American Economic Review 90, no. 5 (December 2000): 1464-76. |
34 pages / 332 kb
