Staff Reports
Time-Varying Inflation Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
Previous title: "Inflation Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns"

May 2013 Number 621
Revised November 2017
JEL classification: E00, E31, E44, G00

Author: Martijn Boons, Fernando M. Duarte, Frans de Roon, and Marta Szymanowska

We show that inflation risk is priced in the cross section of U.S. stock returns. The inflation risk premium varies over time conditional on the nominal-real covariance—the time-varying relation between inflation and the real economy. Using a consumption-based equilibrium asset pricing model, we argue that inflation is priced because it predicts real consumption growth. The historical changes in the predictability of consumption with inflation, which are mediated by the nominal-real covariance, can account for the size, variability, predictability, and sign-reversals— last observed in the 2000s—in the inflation risk premium.

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