Staff Reports
Vulnerable Growth
September 2016 Number 794
Revised November 2017
JEL classification: C22, E17, E37

Authors: Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, and Domenico Giannone

We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time: Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics.

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