Authors: Olivier Armantier, Gizem Kosar, Rachel Pomerantz, Daphné Skandalis, Kyle Smith, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
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Staff Reports
How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Number 949
November 2020
November 2020
JEL classification: E31, E21
This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. We find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we show differences across demographic groups. Finally, we document a strong link, consistent with precautionary saving, between inflation uncertainty and how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act.
Author Disclosure Statement(s)
Olivier Armantier: I do not have anything to disclose.
Gizem Koşar: I do not have anything to disclose.
Rachel Pomerantz: I do not have anything to disclose.
Daphné Skandalis: I do not have anything to disclose.
Kyle Smith: I do not have anything to disclose.
Giorgio Topa: I do not have anything to disclose.
Wilbert van der Klaauw: I do not have anything to disclose.
Gizem Koşar: I do not have anything to disclose.
Rachel Pomerantz: I do not have anything to disclose.
Daphné Skandalis: I do not have anything to disclose.
Kyle Smith: I do not have anything to disclose.
Giorgio Topa: I do not have anything to disclose.
Wilbert van der Klaauw: I do not have anything to disclose.
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