Center for Microeconomic Data

Transitions into Unemployment Decline; Offer Wage Expectations and Job Transitions Pick Up
The July 2021 SCE Labor Market Survey shows that transitions into unemployment dropped to 0.4 percent in July 2021 from 10.5 percent in July 2020. Employer-to-employer transitions, on the other hand, increased to 5.9 percent in July 2021 from 4.4 percent in July 2020. This increase was most pronounced for those with household incomes less than $60,000. Regarding expectations, the average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months increased 2020 to 21.6 percent in July 2021 from 18.5 percent in July, remaining below pre-COVID levels. Conditional on receiving an offer, the average expected annual salary of job offers in the next four months increased to $57,207 from $54,646 in July 2020. The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—increased sharply to $68,954 in July 2021, from $64,226 in July 2020.

Production Note (10/25/21): Due to a response recoding error, the July 2021 values for job offer expectations cannot be used to make a comparison with the rest of the data points in the series and are therefore unavailable.

For more details:
Press Release: Labor Market Survey Shows Improvement in Expectations; Average Reservation Wage Increases Compared to a Year Ago
Fielding the Survey
The SCE Labor Market Survey, fielded every four months as part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, collects information on individuals' experiences and expectations with respect to earnings, job transitions, and job offers, among other topics. The results of the November 2018 survey show that the average full-time offer wage rose to $58,035, up from $52,590 in July.
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