-
-
-
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.
The Center for Microeconomic Data offers wide-ranging data and analysis on the finances and economic expectations of U.S. households.
The monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey tracks the sentiment of New York State manufacturing executives regarding business conditions.
-
-
-
The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
Need to file a report with the New York Fed? Here are all of the forms, instructions and other information related to regulatory and statistical reporting in one spot.
The New York Fed works to protect consumers as well as provides information and resources on how to avoid and report specific scams.
-
-
-
The New York Fed provides a wide range of payment services for financial institutions and the U.S. government.
The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors.
The New York Fed has been working with tri-party repo market participants to make changes to improve the resiliency of the market to financial stress.
-
-
-
We are connecting emerging solutions with funding in three areas—health, household financial stability, and climate—to improve life for underserved communities. Learn more by reading our strategy.
The Economic Inequality & Equitable Growth hub is a collection of research, analysis and convenings to help better understand economic inequality.
This Economist Spotlight Series is created for middle school and high school students to spark curiosity and interest in economics as an area of study and a future career.
The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
-
December 4, 1998
NOTE TO EDITORS
The Dollar and U.S. Manufacturing, the latest edition of the New York Fed’s Current Issues in Economics and Finance, is enclosed for your review.
U.S. manufacturing industries are becoming increasingly sensitive to changes in the international value of the dollar, according to authors Linda Goldberg and Keith Crockett.
Drawing on recent studies that examine how dollar movements have affected past industry performance, Goldberg and Crockett argue that the dollar’s 1997-98 appreciation could significantly reduce U.S. producers’ profits. In addition, the stronger dollar could prompt manufacturers facing a reduction in profit to scale back their expenditures on new plants and equipment.
Goldberg, an assistant vice president in the International Research division, and Crockett, a former assistant economist in the division and now a student at Columbia Business School, also cite some evidence that a dollar appreciation could depress wage growth and affect employment patterns. Although research does not conclusively show that a rise in the dollar leads to job losses or cuts in worker hours, there are indications that a strong dollar may contribute to "churning" within industries--a phenomenon in which large numbers of workers lose their jobs but go on to find new jobs.
To establish that U.S. manufacturing is now more vulnerable to a dollar rise, Goldberg and Crockett use a new measure called net external orientation. This measure gauges the extent to which an industry is exposed to exchange rate shifts through its reliance on export markets and its use of foreign parts and equipment.
Using the net external orientation measure, the authors determine that the exchange rate sensitivity of U.S. manufacturing more than doubled between 1984 and 1995. They also find that tobacco products, industrial machinery, electronic equipment, and measuring and recording instruments are the industries most likely to be hurt by a stronger dollar.
Contact: Douglas Tillett
