NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the October 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Unemployment rate and job finding expectations worsened, while job loss expectations slightly improved. Spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Perceptions and expectations about credit availability improved, but respondents were somewhat less optimistic about their future household financial situation. The survey was fielded from October 1 through October 31, 2025.
The main findings from the October 2025 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in October. They were unchanged at the three-year- (3.0%) and five-year-ahead (3.0%) horizons. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) increased at all horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—remained unchanged at the one-year-ahead horizon and declined at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
- Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% for the fifth consecutive month. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
- Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations declined by 0.7 percentage point for gas to 3.5% and by 0.1 percentage point for food to 5.7%. The year-ahead price change expectations increased by 1.2 percentage points for the cost of college education to 8.2%, by 0.1 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 9.4% (the highest reading since February 2023), and by 0.2 percentage point for rent to 7.2%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.6% in October, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.7%. The series has been moving within the range between 2.4% and 3.0% since May 2021.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.4 percentage points to 42.5%. This is the third consecutive increase in the series.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months retreated by 0.9 percentage point to 14.0%. The reading is just below the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.2%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 18.8%, falling just below its 12-month trailing average of 19.0%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell by 0.6 percentage point to 46.8%, remaining well below its 12-month trailing average of 50.6%. The decline was driven by respondents below age 60 and those with at least some college education.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8% in October, after remaining unchanged for three consecutive months at 2.9%.
- Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.8%. The series has been moving in a range between 4.7% and 5.2% since February 2025.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit (the lowest since February 2022) and a larger share of households reporting it is easier to get credit (the highest since October 2024). Expectations for future credit availability also improved, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit and a larger share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.5 percentage point to 13.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 13.3%.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.2%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.2%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months remained unchanged at 24.9%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago worsened with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated. A larger share of households are expecting a worse financial situation, and a smaller share of households are expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.9 percentage point to 38.9%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
