NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the January 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons, and declined at the short-term horizon. Labor market expectations saw modest improvements with consumers reporting higher expected earnings growth, lower likelihood of a job loss, and higher likelihood of finding a job in the event of a job loss. The survey was fielded from January 2 through January 31, 2026.
The main findings from the January 2026 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations in January declined by 0.3 percentage point at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.1% and remained steady at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.0%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) remained unchanged at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the three-year-ahead horizon.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—decreased at the one-year and three-year-ahead horizons and increased at the five-year-ahead horizon.
- Median home price growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, its lowest reading since July 2023.
- Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations decreased by 1.2 percentage points for gas to 2.8%, 0.1 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 9.8%, and 0.9 percentage point for rent to 6.8%. Median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9.0%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% in January. The increase was driven by those with household income under $50,000.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 0.1 percentage point to 41.9%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 14.8%, remaining slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 1.2 percentage points to 18.7%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost increased by 2.5 percentage points to 45.6%, while remaining below the trailing 12-month average of 48.6%.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in January, equaling its trailing 12-month average.
- Median nominal household spending growth expectations remained unchanged at 4.9%, equal to the trailing 12-month average.
- Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be easier versus harder to obtain credit a year from now decreasing. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago also deteriorated somewhat.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 13.7%, slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 13.4%.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 3.0%. The decrease was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.3 percentage point to 9.3%, the highest reading since July 2024.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 2.4 percentage points to 25.8%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households expect to be better off a year from now and a larger share reporting they expect to be worse off.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.1 percentage points to 39.1%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
