NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the February 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations declined at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Labor market expectations saw a modest slowdown as earnings growth expectations declined, voluntary job separation probabilities decreased, and confidence in finding new employment weakened, despite a small improvement in job loss and overall unemployment expectations. Expectations for future credit access and missing a minimum debt payment improved. The survey was fielded from February 2 through February 28, 2026.
The main findings from the February 2026 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations in February declined by 0.1 percentage point at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.0% and remained steady at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.0%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—decreased at all horizons.
- Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, its trailing 12-month average.
- Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point for food to 5.3%, 0.1 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 9.7%, and 0.9 percentage point for rent to 5.9%. The February reading for rent is the lowest since December 2024. Median year-ahead price change expectations increased by 1.3 percentage points for gas to 4.1% and 0.1 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9.1%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased in February by 0.2 percentage point to 2.5%, just below the trailing 12-month average of 2.6%. The decrease was driven by respondents aged over 40.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 39.9%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 13.8%, falling slightly below the trailing 12-month average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 15.9%, a new series low.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.0%, just slightly above the series low reached in December 2025.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 2.9% in February, equaling its trailing 12-month average.
- Median nominal household spending growth expectations remained unchanged at 4.9%, equal to the trailing 12-month average.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly, with more respondents reporting it is harder to obtain credit than a year ago. Expectations for future credit availability improved, with the net share of households expecting it is easier versus harder to obtain credit one year from now increasing.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 11.6%, its lowest level since February 2024.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 9.2%, remaining well above the trailing 12-month average of 7.1%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 0.9 percentage point to 24.9%.
- Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago, and a larger share reporting they were better off. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations remained steady, with the net share of households reporting expecting a worse versus better situation a year from now remaining relatively unchanged.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 37.9%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
