NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and medium-term horizons and remained unchanged at the longer-term horizon. Gas price growth expectations surged to the highest level since March 2022. Job finding expectations improved, while job loss expectations and expectations about the unemployment rate worsened. Spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Respondents were more pessimistic about their future household financial situations. The survey was fielded from March 2 through March 31, 2026.
The main findings from the March 2026 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.4% at the one-year-ahead horizon, increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year-ahead horizon, and increased at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at all horizons.
- Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
- Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 5.3 percentage points for gas to 9.4%, by 0.7 percentage point for food to 6%, and by 1.2 percentage points for rent to 7.1%. The March reading for gas is the highest since March 2022. Median year-ahead price change expectations remained unchanged for the cost of medical care at 9.7% and decreased by 0.1 percentage point for the cost of college education to 9.0%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4% in March, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.6% and at the low end of its range seen since May 2021 of 2.4% to 3.0%.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 3.6 percentage points to 43.5%. This is the highest reading of the series since April 2025.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 14.4%. The reading remains below the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months also increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.3%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, while remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 47.5%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 2.9% in March.
- Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.1%.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a larger share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability slightly deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 12.3%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 13.2%. The increase was most pronounced for respondents above age 60, those with some college education, and those with annual household incomes below $50,000.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.8%, remaining well above the 12-month trailing average of 7.4%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months remained unchanged at 24.9%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated, with a larger share of households expecting a worse financial situation (the highest since April 2025) and a smaller share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 36.3%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
