Joint BoC - ECB - New York Fed Conference on Expectations Surveys
October 13-14, 2022

Building on the success of previous editions in 2019 and 2021, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in partnership with the Center For Microeconomic Data, are organizing the third joint conference on expectations surveys, to be held on October 13 and 14 at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.

Over the past decade, researchers and central banks have started to collect survey data on expectations from consumers, economists, professional forecasters, and firms. These surveys provide insights into how economic agents form and update their expectations, the heterogeneity and biases in these expectations, and how these expectations feed into economic decisions that can have wide implications for the economy and for monetary policy. The conference program will feature two plenary keynote sessions by Francesca Molinari (Cornell University) and Orazio Attanasio (Yale University).



This event is open to the public and media virtually.


All remarks will be on the record, with a recording to be made available afterward. Media who wish to register to attend virtually should contact Mariah Measey at mariah.measey@ny.frb.org.

Organizing Committee

Olivier Armantier (New York Fed)
Maarten Dossche (ECB)
Dimitris Georgarakos (ECB)
Kim Huynh (BoC)
Monica Jain (BoC)
Geoff Kenny (ECB)
Gizem Kosar (New York Fed)
Olena Kostyshyna (BoC)
Jason Somerville (New York Fed)
Wilbert van der Klaauw (New York Fed)

Event Details

Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045


October 13, 2022
8:30am Registration and Breakfast
8:50am Welcoming Remarks
9:00am Polarized Expectations
Rupal Kamdar, Indiana University
Walker Ray, London School of Economics

The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations
Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Jason Somerville, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Wealth Shocks and Portfolio Choice
Dimitris Christelis, University of Glasgow
Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
Tullio Jappelli, University of Naples Federico II
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
10:30am Coffee Break

11:00am Special Lecture
Luigi Guiso, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
12:00pm Lunch

1:00pm Perceived Returns to Job Search
Abi Adams-Prassl, University of Oxford
Teodora Boneva, University of Bonn
Marta Golin, University of Zurich
Christopher Rauh, University of Cambridge

Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-College Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations
Thomas F. Crossley, European University Institute
Yifan Gong, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Ralph Stinebrickner, Berea College
Todd Stinebrickner, University of Western Ontario

Understanding Socioeconomic Differences in College Outcomes
Esteban M. Aucejo, Arizona State University
Jacob French, New York University Stern School of Business
Basit Zafar, University of Michigan
2:30pm Coffee Break

3:00pm Plenary Lecture 1
Francesca Molinari, Cornell University
4:00pm Coffee Break

4:15pm Household Climate Finance: Theory and Survey Data on Safe and Risky Green Assets
Shifrah Aron-Dine, Stanford University
Johannes Beutel, Deutsche Bundesbank
Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University
Martin Schneider, Stanford University

Estimating Individual Responses When Tomorrow Matters
Stéphane Bonhomme, University of Chicago
Angela Denis, Banco de España

Perceived Ambiguity about COVID-Related Health Outcomes and Protective Health Behaviors among Young Adults
Adeline Delavande, University of Technology Sydney
Emilia Del Bono, University of Essex
Angus Holford, University of Essex
5:45pm Reception

6:45pm Dinner

October 14
8:30am Breakfast
9:00am Betting on the House
Nicolas Bottan, Cornell University
Ricardo Perez-Truglia, UC Berkeley Haas School of Business

Price Rigidities, Input Costs, and Inflation Expectations: Understanding Firms' Pricing Decisions from Microdata
Marianna Riggi, Bank of Italy
Alex Tagliabracci, Bank of Italy

Reactions of Household Inflation Expectations to a Symmetric Inflation Target and High Inflation
Gabriele Galati, De Nederlandsche Bank
Richhild Moessner, Bank for International Settlements
Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank

How to Limit the Spillover from the 2021 Inflation Surge to Inflation Expectations
Lena Dräger, Leibniz University
Michael J. Lamla, Leuphana University
Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Board
11:00am Coffee Break

11:30am Plenary Lecture 2
Orazio Attanasio, Yale University
12:30pm Lunch

1:30pm Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Edward S. Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
John Leer, Morning Consult
Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?
Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada

A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy
Rüdiger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame
Benjamin Born, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Deutsche Bundesbank
Georgi Kocharkov, Deutsche Bundesbank
Ralph Luetticke, University of Tübingen
Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
3:00pm Closing Remarks


Johannes Beutel
Senior Economist
Deutsche Bundesbank

Benjamin Born
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management

Nicolas Bottan
Assistant Professor
Cornell University

Adeline Delavande
Professor of Economics
University of Technology Sydney

Angela Denis
Research Economist
Banco de España

Jacob French
Assistant Professor of Economics
New York University Stern School of Business

Dimitris Georgarakos
Team Lead - Economist
European Central Bank

Marta Golin
Research Affiliate
University of Zurich

Yifan Gong
Assistant Professor
University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Rupal Kamdar
Assistant Professor
Indiana University of Bloomington

Edward S. Knotek II
Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Olena Kostyshna
Senior Analyst
Bank of Canada

Damjan Pfajfar
Group Manager
Federal Reserve Board

Giorgio Topa
Economic Research Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Alex Tagliabracci
Banca d'Italia

Maarten van Rooij
Senior Economist
De Nederlandsche Bank

Xu Xhang
Senior Economist
Bank of Canada


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