Source: Authors' calculations, based on data accessed through Haver Analytics.
Notes: We start reporting the nowcast for a reference quarter about one month before the quarter begins; we stop updating it about one month after the quarter closes.
Colored bars reflect the impact of each broad category of data on the nowcast; the impact of specific data releases is shown in the accompanying table.
Unlike in past quarters, we opted not to re-estimate the model parameters as usual on the first day of the new quarter, July 1, due to large outliers seen over the past months. The Nowcast estimates are thus based on the same parameters used during 2020:Q2, based on data through the end of 2020:Q1
Our forecasts for GDP growth from 2002:Q1 through 2015:Q4 are historical reconstructions. The values we report for these quarters represent predictions that our nowcasting model would have made in real time, using the data that were available to the public as of the dates noted. For more information, please read our accompanying Liberty Street Economics
post, Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15