Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

The UIG captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.

June 2020: The New York Fed Staff UIG Measures
  • The UIG "full data set" measure for May is currently estimated at 1.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
  • The "prices-only" measure for May is currently estimated at 1.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
  • The twelve-month change in the May CPI was +0.1%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
-For May 2020, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 1.2% to 1.9% range, which is wider than the currently estimated April 2020 range of 1.3% to 1.8%. Note that the COVID-19 outbreak continues to impact data collection for the CPI release.

UIG Measures and 12-Month Change in the CPI
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data accessed through Haver Analytics.

Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Data Series
The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI), while the “full data set” measure incorporates additional macroeconomic and financial variables. For a list of the series employed, see the data appendix.

FAQ
Please see this document for frequently asked questions and further details on the methodology behind the UIG.


Related Reading
For an introduction, check out Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge,” Liberty Street Economics, May 22, 2017.

For a more detailed account of our trend inflation measure, see Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review (September 2017).

An in-depth discussion of methodology is provided in Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 672 (April 2014) and Amstad and Potter, “Real Time Underlying Inflation Gauge for Monetary Policymakers,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 420 (December 2009).


2020 Releases *

January 14 
February 13 
March 20  
April 10  
May 12  
June 12
July 14
August 12
September 18
October 13
November 12
December 18

* We generally update and publish the UIG at 2:30 p.m. on CPI release dates. If that date falls during a blackout period surrounding a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, we will publish at 10 a.m. on the first morning following the blackout. As of June 12, we ceased publishing a PDF version of the report.

How to cite this report: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Underlying Inflation Gauge, https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge.
Archive
About the UIG
We share two monthly estimates of trend inflation. The first derives a measure from a large number of price series in the consumer price index (CPI) as well as macroeconomic and financial variables; the second employs the prices-only data set.

For more information, see our FAQ.
The New York Fed Staff UIG measures are not official estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.