Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

The UIG captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.

April 2018: The New York Fed Staff UIG Measures
  • The UIG derived from the “full data set” increased slightly from a currently estimated 3.07% in February to 3.14% in March.
  • The “prices-only” measure increased slightly from 2.21% in February to 2.23% in March.
  • The twelve-month change in the March CPI showed a 0.2 percentage point increase from the February reading. The increase partly reflected some transitory factors that had been restraining inflation dropping out of the twelve-month calculation.
-The UIG measures currently estimate trend CPI inflation to be approximately in the 2.2% to 3.2% range, with the prices-only measure close to the actual twelve-month change in the CPI. Recent analysis suggests the rise in the full-data-set UIG compared to the prices-only measure is being driven principally by survey measures of manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity.


UIG Measures and 12-Month Change in the CPI
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data accessed through Haver Analytics.

Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Data Series
The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI), while the “full data set” measure incorporates additional macroeconomic and financial variables. For a list of the series employed, including a December 2017 revision, see the data appendix.

Download the April 2018 UIG report
Download the UIG data (1995-present)

Note: While the UIG for CPI output values are available, we are unable to share the code or data files used in our calculations. The analysis is based on a public methodology described in the research articles noted below. We also calculate a measure of underlying inflation for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator internally for staff analysis, but we have no plans to share it with the public.


Related Reading
For an introduction, check out Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge,” Liberty Street Economics, May 22, 2017.

For a more detailed account of our trend inflation measure, see Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review (September 2017).

An in-depth discussion of methodology is provided in Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 672 (April 2014) and Amstad and Potter, “Real Time Underlying Inflation Gauge for Monetary Policymakers,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 420 (December 2009).


2018 Release Dates
January 12
February 14
March 23
April 11
May 10 (2:30 p.m.)
June 15 (10:00 a.m.)

Note: We generally update and publish the UIG at 2:30 p.m. on CPI release dates. If that date falls during a blackout period surrounding a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, we will publish at 10 a.m. on the first morning following the blackout.

How to cite this report: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Underlying Inflation Gauge, https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge.
Archive
About the UIG
We share two monthly estimates of trend inflation. The first derives a measure from a large number of price series in the consumer price index (CPI) as well as macroeconomic and financial variables; the second employs the prices-only data set. For detailed information about our methodology, see the report and the references listed there.
The New York Fed Staff UIG measures are not official estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.