Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

The UIG captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.

July 2018: The New York Fed Staff UIG Measures
  • The UIG derived from the “full data set” increased from a currently estimated 3.28% in May to 3.33% in June.
  • The “prices-only” measure increased slightly from 2.31% in May to 2.32% in June.
  • The twelve-month change in the June CPI was +2.9%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from May, and the highest reading since February 2012.
-The UIG measures currently estimate trend CPI inflation to be approximately in the 2.3% to 3.3% range. Since January, there has been a notable pickup in the twelve-month change in the CPI from 2.1% to 2.9%, with this series now moving closer to the UIG “full data set” measure.

UIG Measures and 12-Month Change in the CPI
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data accessed through Haver Analytics.

Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Data Series
The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI), while the “full data set” measure incorporates additional macroeconomic and financial variables. For a list of the series employed, including a December 2017 revision, see the data appendix.

Download the July 2018 UIG

Note: The Excel file above contains the latest historical UIG data. Vintage data accompany past monthly releases. We are unable to share the code or data files used in our calculations. The analysis is based on a public methodology described in the research articles noted below. We also calculate a measure of underlying inflation for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator internally for staff analysis, but we have no plans to share it with the public.

Related Reading
For an introduction, check out Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge,” Liberty Street Economics, May 22, 2017.

For a more detailed account of our trend inflation measure, see Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review (September 2017).

An in-depth discussion of methodology is provided in Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 672 (April 2014) and Amstad and Potter, “Real Time Underlying Inflation Gauge for Monetary Policymakers,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 420 (December 2009).

2018 Release Dates
January 12
February 14
March 23
April 11
May 10
June 15
July 12
August 10 (See production note above)
September 13 (See production note above)

Note: We generally update and publish the UIG at 2:30 p.m. on CPI release dates. If that date falls during a blackout period surrounding a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, we will publish at 10 a.m. on the first morning following the blackout.

How to cite this report: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Underlying Inflation Gauge, https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge.
About the UIG
We share two monthly estimates of trend inflation. The first derives a measure from a large number of price series in the consumer price index (CPI) as well as macroeconomic and financial variables; the second employs the prices-only data set. For detailed information about our methodology, see the report and the references listed there.
The New York Fed Staff UIG measures are not official estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.