- The UIG "full data set" measure for January is currently estimated at 5.1%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
- The "prices-only" measure for January is currently estimated at 4.2%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
- The twelve-month change in the January CPI was +6.4%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
-For January 2023, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 4.2% to 5.1% range, a similar range to December, with a 0.3 percentage point decrease of both its lower and upper bound.
Data Series
The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI), while the “full data set” measure incorporates additional macroeconomic and financial variables. For a list of the series employed, see the
data appendix.
FAQ
Please see this document for
frequently asked questions and further details on the methodology behind the UIG.
Related Reading
For an introduction, check out Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “
Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge,”
Liberty Street Economics, May 22, 2017.
For a more detailed account of our trend inflation measure, see Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “
The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Economic Policy Review (September 2017).
An in-depth discussion of methodology is provided in Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “
The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Staff Reports, no. 672 (April 2014) and Amstad and Potter, “
Real Time Underlying Inflation Gauge for Monetary Policymakers,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Staff Reports, no. 420 (December 2009).
2023 Releases *
January 12
February 14 
March 24
April 12
May 10
June 16
July 12
August 10
September 22
October 12
November 14
December 15