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Economic Research

The Survey of Consumer Expectations: A Look Back at the Past Decade
It has been a little over ten years since the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began releasing its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Over the past decade, SCE data have yielded insights on a host of topics and have been cited in more than 170 academic research papers. The authors review some of the headline findings from the survey’s history, highlighting the evolution of consumers’ expectations about inflation and labor market outcomes.
By Olivier Armantier, Gizem Koşar, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
The Anatomy of Export Controls
Governments increasingly use export controls to limit the spread of domestic cutting-edge technologies to other countries. However, little is known about the effect of export controls on supply chains and the productive sector at large. Do they induce a selective decoupling of the targeted goods and sectors? How do global customer-supplier relations react to export controls? The authors analyze the supply chain reconfiguration and associated effects following the imposition of export controls by the U.S. government.
By Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva
Monetary Policy and Money Market Funds in Europe
The yields of U.S. money market fund (MMF) shares respond to changes in monetary policy rates much more than the rates of bank deposits. Consistent with this, the size of the U.S. MMF industry fluctuates over the interest rate cycle, expanding during times of monetary policy tightening. The authors show that the relationship between the policy rates of the European Central Bank and the size of European MMFs investing in euro-denominated securities is also positive—if policy rates are positive.
By Marco Cipriani, Daniel Fricke, Stefan Greppmair, Gabriele La Spada, and Karol Paludkiewicz
A Retrospective on the Life Insurance Sector after the Failure of Silicon Valley Bank
Following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the stock prices of U.S. banks fell amid concerns about the exposure of the banking sector to interest rate risk. The S&P 500 Bank index dropped relative to S&P 500 returns, and the stock prices of insurance companies tumbled as well. Yet, insurance companies’ direct exposure to the three banks that failed during this period was modest. The authors examine the possible factors behind the reaction of insurance investors to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
By Fulvia Fringuellotti and Saketh Prazad
Decorative image of a drop of water hitting a pool of water with dollar bills under the water.
Internal Liquidity’s Value in a Financial Crisis
Should U.S. financial firms affiliate themselves with bank-holding companies (BHCs)? This affiliation brings benefits, such as access to liquidity from other affiliated entities, as well as costs, particularly a larger regulatory burden. The authors use confidential data on the population of broker-dealers to study the benefits of being affiliated with a BHC, with a focus on the global financial crisis. They find that the affiliation makes broker-dealers more resilient to aggregate liquidity shocks and more willing to hold riskier securities on their balance sheet.
By Cecilia Caglio and Adam Copeland
Physical Climate Risk and Insurers
Can the insurance sector withstand the stress of climate change? To answer this question, it is necessary to first understand insurers' exposure to physical climate risk—such as natural disasters. The authors construct a novel factor to measure the aggregate physical climate risk in the financial market and discuss its applications, including the assessment of insurers’ exposure to climate risk and the expected capital shortfall under climate stress scenarios.
By Hyeyoon Jung, Robert Engle, Shan Ge, and Xuran Zeng
The Life-Cycle Dynamics of Wealth Mobility
Do rich and poor people remain that way throughout their lives? The authors use twenty-five years of tax records for the Norwegian population to study the mobility of wealth over people’s lifetimes, finding considerable wealth mobility over the life cycle. The authors show parental wealth is the key predictor of who is persistently rich or poor, while human capital is the main predictor of those who rise and fall through the middle of the distribution.
Richard Audoly, Rory McGee, Sergio Ocampo, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, Staff Report 1097, April 2024
Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls
Amid the current U.S.-China technological race, the U.S. has imposed export controls to deny China access to strategic technologies. The authors document that these measures prompted a broad-based decoupling of U.S. and Chinese supply chains. As a result of these disruptions, affected suppliers have negative abnormal stock returns, wiping out $130 billion in market capitalization, and experience a drop in bank lending, profitability, and employment.
Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva, Staff Report 1096, April 2024
Investor Attention to Bank Risk During the Spring 2023 Bank Run
The bank run that started in March 2023 in the U.S. transpired at an unusually rapid pace, suggesting that depositors became aware of bank liquidity risk quite suddenly. The authors examine how investors’ perception of bank balance sheet risk evolved before and during the March-April 2023 bank run. Their findings suggest that investors with limited attention focused on April announcements of additional downgraded banks to update their priors on balance sheet risk, even though the authors found these announcements to be uninformative.
Natalia Fischl-Lanzoni, Martin Hiti, Nathan Kaplan, and Asani Sarkar, Staff Report 1095, April 2024
The Global Credit Cycle
Do global credit conditions affect local credit and business cycles? Using a large cross-section of equity and corporate bond market returns around the world, the authors construct a novel global credit factor and a global risk factor that jointly price the international equity and bond cross-section. They uncover a global credit cycle in risky asset returns and show that the global pricing of corporate credit is a fundamental factor in driving local credit conditions and real outcomes.
Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias, Staff Report 1094, March 2024
Paradoxes and Problems in the Causal Interpretation of Equilibrium Economics
Equilibrium assumptions posit relations between different people's beliefs and behavior without describing a process which causes these relations to hold. The author shows that because equilibrium models don't describe a causal process whereby one endogenous variable affects another, attempts to decompose the effects of shocks into “direct” and “indirect” effects can suggest misleading predictions about how these models work. This makes equilibrium models unreliable tools to study how economic systems coordinate activity and aggregate dispersed information.
Keshav Dogra, Staff Report 1093, March 2024
Miss-Allocation: The Value of Workplace Gender Composition and Occupational Segregation
Although women’s labor market outcomes have improved markedly relative to men’s in the last several decades, women and men still do very different jobs. The author analyzes the value workers ascribe to the gender composition of their workplaces and the consequences of these valuations for occupational segregation, tipping, and welfare. The finding of her novel survey show that the gender composition of a workplace is an important amenity that can have large consequences for occupation choice and worker welfare.
Rachel Schuh, Staff Report 1092, March 2024
International Banking and Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Global Liquidity, Regulation, and Implications
Global liquidity flows are largely channeled through banks and non-bank financial institutions. The common drivers of global liquidity flows include monetary policy in advanced economies and risk conditions. At the same time, the sensitivities of liquidity flows to changes in these drivers differ across institutions and have been evolving over time. Current policy initiatives target linkages across different types of financial institutions and associated risks, but significant gaps remain.
Claudia M. Buch and Linda S. Goldberg, Staff Report 1091, March 2024
Micro Responses to Macro Shocks
The authors study estimation and inference in panel data regression models when the regressors of interest are macro shocks, which speaks to a large empirical literature that targets impulse responses via local projections. They show that inference in regressions with macro shocks has two main features: strong spatial dependence and limited serial correlation.
Martín Almuzara and Víctor Sancibrián, Staff Report 1090, March 2024
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